Monday, October22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Babylon, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:03PM Monday October 22, 2018 3:23 AM EDT (07:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:28PMMoonset 4:47AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1250 Am Edt Mon Oct 22 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1250 Am Edt Mon Oct 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build to the south through Monday. Low pressure will move from from the great lakes Monday night to the gulf of maine by late Tuesday night, with a warm front entering the waters late Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front Tuesday evening. High pressure will then build in from Tuesday night through Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Babylon, NY
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location: 40.69, -73.3     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220525
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
125 am edt Mon oct 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build to the south through Monday. As low
pressure passes to the north late Monday night into Tuesday, a
warm front will approach and pass through. A cold front will
follow Tuesday night. High pressure will then build across from
Wednesday into Thursday, and settle over the region on Friday.

The high will retreat on Saturday, followed by low pressure
lifting north along the eastern seaboard Saturday night into
Sunday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Expect a mostly clear night tonight, except perhaps in
interior portions of the lower hud valley and NE nj where lake
effect clouds have been advancing SE the past few hours. Winds
continue to diminish and will remain light overnight as high
pressure builds to the sw. The light winds and mostly clear
skies will allow for ideal radiational cooling conds. Although
weak WAA will commence tonight, h85 temps between -3c and -5c
will yield lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s across most of the
tri state area. The ny nj metro area will be slightly warmer,
but still chilly with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. No
changes to frost freeze headlines.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Expect dry conditions Mon into Mon evening as sfc high pressure
slides to the south and heights rise aloft. There could be a
period of mostly cloudy skies well inland Mon afternoon as an h8
warm front passes across upstate ny into new england. High temps
will be not too far off those of today, mainly upper 40s lower
50s.

As the core of the sfc high moves offshore Mon night and low
pressure crosses the upper great lakes into ontario, a warm
front approaching from the south should bring mostly cloudy
skies Mon night, and a chance of showers to southern ct and
eastern long island. Low temps will be in the 30s inland and 40s
nyc metro coast.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
To begin the period on Tuesday the CWA will be south of a warm front
associated with low pressure across the canadian - us border.

Minimal precip chances appear the way to go during late Tuesday with
the low levels being fairly dry and forcing being north of the
region. As the upper level energy approaches from the west thinking
that a slight chance pops for northern sections appears prudent, as
the SREF is a good compromise between the GFS and NAM guidance.

Even though the sub-cloud dry layer will be a hindrance to
precip chances, a nice spoke of upper level energy is progged to
come through. The SREF guidance hints at this low precip
probability, therefore slight chances feel prudent for far
northwestern sections during at least parts of this timeframe.

High pressure builds in from the north and west Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night. The high will settle over the region on
Friday. Friday morning will most likely be the coolest morning of
the region widespread across the region, especially if the winds
lighten in time which the model consensus is indicating. There
should be widespread 20s across rural locations Friday morning.

Confidence is high for dry conditions to prevail later Wednesday
right through Friday.

Significant changes then take place into the weekend with the global
models continuing to indicate cyclogenesis along the southeastern us
coast for late in the period. There is fairly good agreement this
far out in time on the track and overall intensity. However, the
greatest uncertainty is with timing and this is centered around how
quickly a confluence zone at 500 mb lifts north to begin next
weekend. Some operational runs have lifted the system up sooner
which would lead to clouds arriving quickly late Friday night into
Saturday with rain as arriving as soon as Saturday afternoon, with
the ECMWF 0z run from last night advertising this scenario. However,
more operational runs than not and ensemble means indicating at
least for right now that somewhat slower timing is more likely.

Therefore it seems prudent at this time to delay much of the precip
until Saturday night, but with the introduction of pops as early as
Saturday afternoon. If there are impacts from this system it
appears that much of that will wait until the second half of the
weekend.

Aviation 05z Monday through Friday
A high pressure ridge shifts through the region today.

Vfr. Nw-w winds under 10 kt through the morning push, then winds
back more to the w, then finally shift SW in the afternoon at
around 10 kt. Frequent gusts confined to kewr kteb in the aftn
which are more prone to gusts on a SW flow. Other sites may see
occasional gusts.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night Vfr.

Tuesday Vfr. Wsw winds g20kt.

Wednesday Vfr. NW winds g25kt.

Thursday Vfr. NW winds g20kt.

Friday Vfr.

Marine
All waters now under an SCA as gusts have dropped below gale
force levels. As winds continue to diminish tonight, SCA conds
on the non ocean waters should abate by midnight, then late
tonight on the ocean.

Sca conditions will return to the eastern ocean waters Tuesday
afternoon, and expand westward across the ocean waters Tuesday
night. SCA conditions may also take place for the eastern
sound bays for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sca
conditions will then continue for much of the time through
Wednesday for the eastern ocean waters. SCA conditions will then
expand to the western ocean waters and possibly the eastern
sound and the bays late Wednesday night into Thursday.

High pressure then begins to approach the coastal waters with sub
sca conditions for all zones into Thursday night and Friday.

Hydrology
Dry through much of the period. Low pressure moving up the coast
may bring rainfall on the order of an inch or so Saturday night
into Sunday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for nyz071-078>080-
177-179.

Freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for nyz081.

Nj... Frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for njz006-106-108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz350-353-355.

Aviation... Jc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi53 min WNW 14 G 14 42°F 53°F29°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi23 min W 12 G 18 43°F 1 ft31°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi35 min 59°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 26 mi38 min W 12 G 16 62°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi33 min NNW 19 G 25 46°F 62°F4 ft1022.1 hPa (+1.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi33 min NW 18 G 23 2 ft1022.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 34 mi41 min W 2.9 G 5.1 36°F 61°F1021.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi35 min 40°F 59°F1022.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi35 min WNW 9.9 G 12 41°F 1023.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi35 min WNW 12 G 15 44°F 54°F1024.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 45 mi35 min 38°F 58°F1022.8 hPa
MHRN6 46 mi35 min W 8.9 G 12
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 46 mi38 min WNW 16 G 23 45°F 64°F2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi35 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 36°F 62°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY6 mi30 minWNW 410.00 miFair35°F27°F72%1022.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi87 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F28°F76%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W6W10W11W9SW11W8SW12W12SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Babylon, Long Island, New York
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Babylon
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:26 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:52 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:23 PM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.1000.20.30.50.60.70.60.50.40.30.20.100.10.30.40.60.70.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:50 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:16 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:32 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.30.100.20.50.91.21.31.31.10.90.60.40.20.10.10.40.81.11.31.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.