Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Babylon, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:09PM Monday May 20, 2019 4:30 PM EDT (20:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 316 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms this evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 316 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front pass across the waters this evening. High pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday, and over the waters on Wednesday. A quick moving frontal system will likely affect the waters late Thursday into Thursday night followed by high pressure on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Babylon, NY
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location: 40.69, -73.3     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201930
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
330 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front moves across the tri-state this evening. High
pressure returns for the middle of the week. A frontal system
will move across the area Thursday night with high pressure
returning on Friday. A series of fronts could move across the
region for the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Convection is beginning to develop, but struggling to organize
into a broken line across the interior. The broken line of
convection will translate east into the evening hours, reaching
the nyc metro 21-23z and then southern connecticut and long
island 22-01z. The line should be moving offshore thereafter
with the cold front following around midnight.

Current radar trends are indicative of convection that is struggling
to sustain any strong updrafts. Reflectivity is struggling to make
it above -10c. Negating factors include a middle level cap that
is showing up around 500 mb on hrrr and rap soundings. In fact,
this cap appears to be getting stronger on the latest runs of
the hrrr and rap. There is also hints at a cap around 700-800
mb on acars soundings.

If updrafts can break through these capping inversions, there
is 35-45 kt of effective shear to work with and 1000-2000 j kg
of cape. The best alignment of ingredients for severe storms
lies across the interior lower hudson valley and interior
southern ct, but the threat is not zero further south. Will
also need to watch any surface convergence with sea breezes and
the pre-frontal trough as well as outflow boundary convergence
from any of the stronger convection that does develop. The main
severe weather threat will be damaging wind gusts and hail to
around 1 inch in diameter.

Showers storms may become elevated as they move across eastern long
island and southeast connecticut later this evening encountering
a bit more maritime influence.

There is good agreement among the high resolution models that broken
line of convection will move offshore after 01-03z. The front will
follow shortly thereafter with conditions drying out into the early
morning hours. Temperatures will fall into the 50s across the region
and begin to become breezy around day break.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Deep upper cyclone will pass across northern new england and the
canadian maritimes on Tuesday. A deep NW flow sets up with good
mixing through the day that will lead to gusty winds. Gusts 25 to 30
mph are possible through the day. The NW flow will advect much drier
and more seasonable air into the tri-state as dew points fall
into the upper 30s and lower 40s. High temperatures will be in
the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

Winds will diminish Tuesday night, but not completely decouple.

High pressure builds towards the region through Tuesday night, so
winds will weaken. Ridging builds aloft with mostly clear skies and
lows in the 40s inland and long island pine barrens to the lower 50s
elsewhere.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The long term will feature an amplified upper level pattern with a
deep trough in the west and strong ridging in the southeast.

Multiple waves will move around the periphery of the ridge bringing
a chance of showers for the weekend.

At the surface, high pressure will move offshore Wednesday
night as a warm front advances from the ohio valley with warm
air advection developing. As the front slowly approaches,
showers may develop early Thursday morning. There is a greater
chance for showers Thursday afternoon into Friday morning as low
pressure dives southeast from the great lakes. A rumble of
thunder cannot be ruled out ahead of the approaching cold front.

Dry and warm weather then returns Friday into Friday night as high
pressure builds in.

Another shortwave and approaching cold front may bring showers
Saturday afternoon into Sunday. It is possible the front stalls over
the region into Sunday so have kept chance pops through the weekend.

Temperatures throughout the long term will moderate to above
seasonable normals through the weekend.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
A pre frontal trough moves into the region this afternoon as a cold
front also approaches. The cold front is expected to pass through
the terminals from around 00-01z northwest to 03-04z east.

Vfr outside of sct bkn line or lines of showers tstms, which
shift through the region this afternoon and early evening.

Sw winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Winds will shift to the nw
with the cold front passage and briefly gust 20-25 kt as the front
moves through the terminals.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi46 min SSW 16 G 18 64°F 64°F61°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi31 min W 16 G 23 82°F 60°F1006.8 hPa (-2.8)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi41 min SSW 14 G 16 59°F 55°F4 ft1007.7 hPa (-2.3)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi21 min S 16 G 19 63°F 58°F1006.7 hPa60°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 34 mi37 min SW 11 G 18 80°F 56°F1005.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi31 min 80°F 60°F1006.5 hPa (-2.5)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi31 min W 16 G 26 85°F 1005.9 hPa (-2.6)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi31 min WSW 12 G 16 77°F 64°F1008 hPa (-2.3)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 45 mi37 min 87°F 63°F1006.3 hPa
MHRN6 46 mi31 min SW 18 G 25
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi31 min SSW 11 G 13 66°F 58°F1005.8 hPa (-2.6)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY6 mi38 minS 1310.00 miFair76°F63°F64%1006.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi35 minSSW 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F64°F62%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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SW6S5S5S7S7S8SW6SW7SW6SW8S10S11S12--S13S13
1 day agoSW11SW8SW11SW7S7S8S6S4SW4SW3SW3S3S4S4S6S9SW10S8S8S15
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2 days agoS6SW6SW4S3SW4W3W7NW5NW6NW7N6NW4N6N4N8N10N10N10NW9NW664S12S9

Tide / Current Tables for Babylon, Long Island, New York
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Babylon
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.50.40.20-0.1-0.10.10.30.50.60.60.60.50.40.20.1000.10.30.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Gilgo Heading, Long Island, New York
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Gilgo Heading
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:48 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:07 PM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.31.10.70.40.2-0.1-0.10.10.40.81.11.21.110.70.50.20.100.20.50.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.