Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:37PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:42 AM EDT (04:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:09AMMoonset 9:27PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1225 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Overnight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of sprinkles.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
Mon night..E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
ANZ300 1225 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build over the waters through the weekend and into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Point, NY
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location: 40.72, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240222
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1022 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build and remain in control through early
next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Still expecting a mainly clear night even with just a few
mid and high level clouds moving across overnight. Clouds were
adjusted slightly in the grids as well as the temperatures and
dewpoints. Radiational cooling will be efficient as winds are
light, so minimum temperatures were lowered a few degrees for
rural areas and the interior. The result will be a vast range of
lows from near 50 in some rural and interior places to upper
60s in much of nyc.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Daytime heating under mostly sunny skies on Thu should result
in development of a weak lee thermal trough, while a lobe of the
building high still manages to build just to the south over the
cooler ocean waters, allowing for afternoon coastal sea breezes
to develop. Meanwhile, sunshine deep mixing to about 800 mb, and
weak downslope flow should allow for temps to rise to the upper
70s and lower 80s.

An approaching upper trough Thu night with accompanying mid
level vort MAX and band of mid level moisture should produce
mostly cloudy skies and possibly some sprinkles. Specific timing
of these clouds and any sprinkles is still a little uncertain,
and if the slower 12z NAM is correct, would take place overnight
than a couple hours either side of midnight.

Low temps are slightly warmer than MOS guidance due to the cloud
cover, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
High pressure will be centered over the great lakes region on Friday.

At the same time, an upper level trough axis will be right over us
in the morning. The flow aloft becomes less cyclonic through the day
as the trough shifts east, and with limited moisture, not expecting
any showers to develop. Highs mostly 75-80 across the area with
850mb temperatures around 9c.

Saturday will be mostly sunny with surface high pressure building
in and more of a zonal flow aloft. High temperatures likely at or
slightly below those of Friday with slightly cooler 850mb temps
progged.

The surface high will be centered more to our north by Sunday, and
similar to Friday we start the day with an upper trough axis over us
which shifts east through the day. Moisture is still limited, so
another dry and mostly sunny day. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

High pressure will then be centered over new england on Monday and
Tuesday. This will continue the stretch of dry weather with mostly
sunny conditions and high in the mid and upper 70s.

There's a large spread among the global models regarding the
potential development and movement of a coastal low pressure system
during Wednesday. With high pressure likely to be centered somewhere
off the new england coast and a lack of a surface trough or cold
front for any sort of moisture entrainment, will go with the idea
that rain trying to move in here from the south remains suppressed.

Not a high confidence forecast this far out in time.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Vfr as high pressure builds in. NW winds become N tonight with
speeds under 10 kt. A surface trough develops over the area
Wednesday aftn which will result in a tricky wind forecast.

Boundary layer winds appear weak enough for seabreeze
development at coastal terminals, but most hi-res guidance is
indicating the sfc trough dominates the wind directions. Thus,
have decided against including seabreezes in the 00z tafs.

Outlook for 00z Thursday through Monday
Thursday-Monday Vfr.

Marine
High pressure will maintain quiet conditions through Sunday. The
pressure gradient may tighten and increase winds a little on
Monday due to a potential storm well the south, which may also
bring in an easterly swell. Ocean seas are still expected to
remain below advisory levels.

Hydrology
Dry through at least early next week.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc goodman
near term... Jm
short term... Goodman
long term... Jc
aviation... 24
marine... Jc goodman
hydrology... Jc goodman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 5 mi42 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 78°F63°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi42 min N 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 76°F1011.1 hPa (+0.5)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi52 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 73°F3 ft1011.5 hPa (+0.6)65°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi42 min NNE 4.1 G 6 69°F 78°F1011.7 hPa (+0.7)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi42 min Calm G 1.9 70°F 74°F1011.6 hPa (+0.3)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi52 min N 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 75°F2 ft1011.1 hPa (+0.6)59°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi46 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds66°F59°F78%1011.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair63°F61°F93%1011.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair56°F52°F87%1011.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair68°F55°F65%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8SW8SW9SW8SW8W6W6W6W8W7W10NW9NW7NW6NW10W12NW9W9NW5NW4NW3NW4CalmCalm
1 day agoSW8SW8SW6SW6SW7SW8SW7SW6SW7SW12SW10SW12S12S14S9SW14
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W6W7W8W7S9SW13SW9SW11SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:10 AM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:58 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:44 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.51.41.20.80.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.30.71.11.31.41.310.70.40.1-00.10.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Smith Point Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:59 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:28 PM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.51.20.80.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.40.81.21.51.51.310.70.40.1-00.10.40.81.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.