Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 4:42 AM   Moonset 6:27 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 104 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
This afternoon - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of tstms in the morning. Chance of showers.Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Fri night - N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 104 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the atlantic today as a cold front approaches from the west and then passes through tonight. Weak high pressure briefly returns on Tuesday before the front returns as a warm front on Wednesday. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather through Friday, and possibly into the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 061724 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 124 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic today as a cold front approaches from the west and then passes through tonight. Weak high pressure briefly returns on Tuesday before the front returns as a warm front on Wednesday. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather through Friday, and possibly into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
What is left of a frontal boundary just south of the area will continue to dissipate while a cold front approaches from the west. Expect varying amounts of clouds with peaks of sun from time to time, especially across SE CT. Temperatures were varying quite bit due to differences in the cloud cover with the warmest conditions across LI and CT. Most locations away from the immediate coast are forecast to get into the upper 60s to around 70. This is a drop for some locations and a bump up for others. Max temps will likely need to be modified through the afternoon. Early spring can often be a challenge across the area due to low clouds and fog.

Meanwhile, a closed upper low swings into eastern Canada and will help send a cold front through the region tonight.

Can't rule out a few pop up showers in the afternoon, mainly across the interior, ahead of the trailing cold front, but coverage appears limited on CAMs at this point with weak lift and moisture. Maintained a low chance of a thunderstorm as well, but likely isolated at best.

For tonight, there could be redevelopment of low clouds and fog, especially across the coast. This is still being assessed as some drier moves in aloft ahead of the cold front. Low-level still may be moist enough. The front moves through tonight, and the flow veers NW as a result, bringing in drier air and decreasing cloud cover overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Weak surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes behind the fropa on Tuesday. This should set up the clearest day of the week so far, with drier air working down in the northerly flow.
A mild afternoon for most with downsloping helping the interior and areas away from the coast to warm into the mid to upper 70s. Lower 80s possible in the urban metro of NE NJ. Much more sky than clouds should be apparent and sunshine prevails much of the day.

Thereafter, the front that pushed through Monday night stalls over the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday in zonal flow, returning to the region Tuesday night as a warm front as the high erodes and low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes. This will reintroduce rain chances by Wed AM, and perhaps some thunderstorms into Wednesday afternoon. Still a bit too far for our CAM coverage, so timing and coverage will need to be refined over the next day or two. SPC currently has the region outlined in a general thunder risk.

Wednesday is likely the hottest day of the week for at least portions of the area as the warm front attempts to lift north.
Exceptions may be eastern LI and southern CT, where onshore southerly flow will limit temperatures. Elsewhere, low 80s possible, with mid 80s into NE NJ. The attendant cold front passes through Wednesday night as the low exits to our east, but the pattern remains unsettled into late week as a wave of low pressure along the boundary to the south approaches thereafter.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley on Thursday with a secondary low center forming and passing over us or just off to our south Thursday night. As energy continues to transfer from the parent low to the secondary low center, a lingering trough between the two centers remains near the forecast area during Friday. Rain is likely Thursday and Thursday night, with still some chances of showers during Friday with moisture convergence along the trough along with some shortwave lift from aloft. An isolated rumble of thunder can't be ruled out mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as elevated instability will be present.

There's some uncertainty regarding the weekend, but overall there seems to be a model trend over the past day or two toward drier conditions. Although both days currently feature a chance of showers in the forecast, it can very well end up dry all weekend. There are indications of deep weak ridging for Saturday, then an area of low pressure that may pass too far to our south and west on Sunday to bring showers.

NBM was used for temperatures through the long term period. Cooler than normal through Saturday with a return toward more seasonable temperatures on Sunday.

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic today as a cold front approaches from the west and then passes through tonight.

Cond improve to MVFR this afternoon at most terminals, and it is possible that cigs may even scatter for a time late this afternoon mainly north/west of KJFK/KISP/KGON. IFR/MVFR cond this evening should improve to VFR late tonight.

There is chance of a late day shower and possibly a tstm as well, with probability and coverage too low for TAF mention.

Light/vrb winds shift more SW-W for this afternoon, then become N late tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement in flight cat has been running slightly ahead of schedule this morning, and cigs may even scatter for a time this afternoon. Chance of occasional IFR at KJFK this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late with MVFR cond possible.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower AM, improving to VFR PM. Chance of showers. Tstms possible mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, mainly in the afternoon and at night.

Friday: MVFR/VFR with showers possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Dense fog advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. The ocean waters may need to be extended into this evening.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday.

Easterly winds increase on Thursday, and this onshore flow combined with swell being generated from low pressure passing nearby is expected to build ocean seas to advisory levels starting late Thursday night into Friday morning, and lasting well into Friday night.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night.

A statement has been issued for localized minor flooding with tonight's high tide cycle for Southern Fairfield County and the south shore back bays of Nassau County.

A more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate advisories for these two locations plus Southern Queens will more likely occur with the nighttime cycles from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Statements for these 3 high tide cycles may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound, SW Suffolk County, as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355.

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Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York, Tide feet

Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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