Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:17PM Monday May 29, 2017 5:01 PM EDT (21:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 300 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening...then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft in the afternoon, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 300 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes well to the southeast of the waters tonight. A weak frontal boardary slowly approaches from the west through Tuesday then moves through the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure follows for Thursday into Friday...with a cold frontal boundary approaching Friday night into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Point, NY
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location: 40.72, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 291941
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
341 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure moves well southeast of the area tonight. A weak
cold front slowly approaches from the west through Tuesday then
moves through late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

High pressure then briefly builds back for Thursday. A couple of
cold fronts follow for Friday night and Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
The earlier vorticity maximums ahead of a broad upper low have
moved offshore, ending steadier rain across the area. Subsidence
aloft observed on WV imagery should act to maintain if not
strengthen the low level inversion. Given the continued onshore
flow trapping moisture beneath the inversion, periods of
drizzle and patchy fog will likely persist through the night.

Cloud cover and onshore flow will moderate temperatures
overnight keeping values close to climatological normals.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Fog and drizzle will likely continue through the morning,
particularly closer to the coast as onshore flow persists
beneath a low-level inversion. Although the low-level cloud deck
may lift some, clearing appears unlikely and as such any
instability ahead of the approaching system will remain
elevated. Shower chances will increase through the day from west
to east ahead of a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum. Any
thunderstorm chance will be greatest to the north and west of
the city, but thereafter the marine influence may gradually
decrease ongoing activity leading to mainly showers overnight.

At the moment instability appears weak, but if a stronger cell
can develop to the north and west of the city, given
strengthening deep-layer wind shear, small hail will be
possible. Onshore flow leads to lowering clouds and the
development of occasional drizzle and patchy fog once again,
outside of any steadier rain associated with the aforementioned
vorticity maximum. Similar to Monday, high temperatures will be
below normal while lows will be closer to climatological
normals.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
A cold front approaches on Wednesday and is forecast to move through
the area late in the day to early evening hours. Lift ahead of the
front, plus upward motion from a shortwave and possibly a coupled
jet structure aloft are expected to produce scattered showers during
this period. Capes are forecast to be high enough for some
thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts with 0-6km
shear around 50 kt. High temperatures near normal.

Zonal flow aloft and weak surface ridging should keep us dry on
Thursday along with high temperatures once again near normal.

The timing of the next cold front is still uncertain as a closed
500mb low drifts across southern quebec Friday into Saturday. Looks
like the main cold front would pass through sometime on Saturday
with a weak front or pre-frontal trough shifting through the
region Friday evening. Will go with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms from Friday afternoon through Saturday for now.

Some uncertainty in the weather pattern continues into Sunday and
Monday, owing to differences among the models regarding the
magnitude of upper and surface ridging to our west behind the
departing upper low over the canadian maritimes. Prefer the
drier more ridging solution of gfs, so will go with dry conditions
on Sunday. Then with an upper trough axis moving closer on Monday,
isolated showers and thunderstorms with the cold pool aloft.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Weak high pressure over the area will slowly give way to a
frontal system approaching from the west the next couple of
days.

This will keep the area under an easterly flow with low clouds,
fog, and a chance of light rain or drizzle.

Widespread MVFR conditions lower to ifr late this evening, and
then gradually improve after daybreak Tuesday. There is some
uncertainty with ceilings and visibilities overnight due to
potential drier air in the low levels. This might result in some
variability in conditions this evening, but overall the trend
should be for lowering ceilings.

E winds this afternoon 5 to 10 kt, veer to the SE overnight at
at 5 kt or less. Winds may go light and variable at times.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 5 mi61 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 64°F56°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi49 min SSE 5.1 G 8 55°F 1016.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi71 min NE 14 G 16 54°F 56°F6 ft1015.7 hPa (+2.5)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi68 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 54°F 52°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 35 mi46 min E 12 G 16 55°F 2 ft52°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi43 min Calm G 2.9 57°F 60°F1017.2 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi31 min E 12 G 16 56°F 53°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi43 min E 7 G 8.9 56°F 59°F1016.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi71 min ENE 12 G 14 55°F 57°F6 ft1016.2 hPa (+1.6)53°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi65 minNE 95.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist56°F54°F93%1016.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi65 minVar 45.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist55°F54°F96%1016.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi68 minNE 56.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F51°F90%1017.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi68 minNE 610.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10SE9SE11SE9SE9SE9SE9SE10E7E8E9E7E9E7E7E8E8E10E11
G17
E125NE6N8NE9
1 day agoSE8SE9SE8SE8S6S8S6S7S6S6SE5S5S4S4S5S6S7S8S10S11S10S10SE9SE11
G17
2 days agoNW18
G24
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NW13NW10N6N3N3CalmNW4CalmNW4NW3W3NW6N7N7N7N9N10S10SW9S7SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:15 AM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:11 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:59 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:16 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.41.51.51.20.90.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.50.91.21.31.210.60.40.1-000.3

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Smith Point Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:12 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:43 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.61.51.30.90.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.611.31.41.310.70.40.1-00.10.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.