Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 5:38PM Friday February 23, 2018 9:39 PM EST (02:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:11PMMoonset 1:45AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 924 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Overnight..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming w. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of sprinkles late this evening and early morning. Patchy fog late this evening and early morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 924 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes early Saturday. A low pressure system approaches for Saturday, with its warm front moving towards the region Saturday night. A low develops along it and this moves across Sunday. High pressure builds from the midwest Sunday night and remains in control through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Point, NY
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location: 40.72, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 232312
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
612 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front moves across this evening, followed by a cold front
early Saturday. Another low pressure system approaches for Saturday,
with its warm front moving towards the region Saturday night. A
low develops along it and this moves across Sunday. High
pressure builds from the midwest Sunday night and remains in
control through the middle of next week. A frontal system then
approaches for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Categorical pops have been extended wwd thru 1z to match the
radar. Otherwise, the fcst is on track. Through tonight, the
main upper level jet stream stays in southeast canada near the
us border, but will become relatively more zonal. Likewise, in
the mid levels, the flow will become more zonal as the ridge off
the southeast us becomes more suppressed with local height
falls across the local region.

At the surface, a warm front will be moving across this evening as
winds switch from a more easterly flow to a more southwest to west
flow. Expecting min temperatures to be set early this evening with
rising temperatures late this evening and then remaining nearly
steady overnight.

Rain continues into this evening with the strongest isentropic lift.

This lift diminishes by mid to late this evening and with that, rain
will be exiting east of the region. Expecting also some patchy
fog across the region for the first half of tonight before that more
westerly flow develops and for the interior expecting the patchy fog
to persist a few extra hours as winds will be lighter.

Drier conditions on that more westerly flow can be expected for the
remainder of the night.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday
This weekend features a strengthening upper level jet from baja
california extending northeast through the great lakes and northern
new england. The jet itself approaches closer to the region on
Sunday, with the local region getting close to the right front quad
of the upper level jet.

The mid levels convey a ridge moving in with its axis oriented
southeast to northwest with a nearly steady height tendency Saturday
into Saturday evening. A shortwave from the southwest us will travel
and pivot into the great lakes Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Then for Sunday, this shortwave further pivots into ontario.

At the surface, another low pressure system developing in the south
central us will have its associated warm front approaching. The day
starts out dry but there will be increasing chances of rain in the
afternoon from southwest to northeast as this warm front approaches
and with some forecast increase in isentropic lift aloft. Used a
blend of mav and ecs MOS for high temperatures, getting well into
the 50s as a light northwest flow acts as a downslope for adiabatic
warming from higher temperatures aloft.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the bulk of the rainfall. The
warm front will be approaching and with the parent low heading into
the western great lakes and deepening, an increasing easterly flow
will take place. This will load the atmosphere with more moisture as
layer precipitable waters are forecast to increase to 1.1 to 1.4
inches. This will facilitate at times moderate to perhaps heavy
rain.

For temperatures, Saturday used the relatively warmer blend of
mav and ecs MOS as well as nam12 2 meter temperatures, mid 30s to
near 40. For Sunday, with rain much of the day used gmos with 2
meter temperatures of GFS and ecmwf, showing a range from the low
40s to near 50.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
The general north american pattern of troughing in the west and
ridging east of the rockies looks to continue into next week.

The upper pattern starts to diverge mid to late week next week
as a closed low pres system moves onshore in california and
continues into the plains. The ec is much slower than the gfs,
but has support from the cmc, therefore this idea was preferred,
but there is low confidence in the details late next week since
there is also large spread in the GEFS and ecens.

In terms of sensible weather, dry weather returns Sun night as
low pres departs and high pres builds from the midwest. The high
will remain in control through the middle of next week,
resulting in a continuation of above normal temperatures. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wed night as a WAA pattern ensues,
although due to the aforementioned uncertainty in the upper
pattern, rain could very well hold off until Thu night. Have
scaled back on the previous forecasts pops a bit in light of
the 12z data and the large amount of uncertainty. At this time,
atmospheric profiles suggest pcpn starts as rain, with colder
air aloft working in late Thu night fri. This may be enough for
a brief period of a wintry mix across locations N of nyc.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure over the canadian maritime and extending along the
northeast coast moves east as a wave of low pressure passes to
the south of long island through 05z tonight. High pressure
then builds to the north through Saturday.

Conditions have lowered to ifr with light rain and fog. Ifr to
lifr conditions will prevail into this evening. The rain ends
late tonight with conditions improving to MVFR, then back up to
vfr after 10z Saturday. Although conditions will beVFR through
the early part of Saturday, rain will once again approach from
the west by evening, with MVFR possible.

Winds diminish this evening, possibly becoming light and
variable before becoming NW Saturday morning.

A brief period of llws is possible 02z to 07z.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi58 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 37°F 37°F1024 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi50 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 43°F 42°F4 ft1024 hPa (-3.1)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi55 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 37°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi52 min W 1.9 G 4.1 37°F 39°F1024.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi52 min ENE 1 G 4.1 37°F 38°F1025.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi40 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 39°F 39°F1025 hPa (-2.6)38°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi44 minWNW 40.75 miFog/Mist39°F39°F100%1024 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi44 minNW 31.50 miFog/Mist40°F39°F100%1024 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi47 minNW 51.50 miFog/Mist40°F39°F97%1024.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi47 minN 01.75 miFog/Mist39°F39°F100%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE6NE10NE8NE9NE8NE5NE5NE5NE9NE9E7E9E11E10E11E10E7E11
G17
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1 day agoN9N8N5N6N9N10N11N10N13NE13NE11NE12NE10NE9E8E10NE6E6NE9NE6NE11N10NE9NE8
2 days agoSW7SW8SW8SW7SW8SW8SW9SW12SW11SW10SW9SW8SW8SW10SW12SW9SW10SW10SW8SW10
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 04:03 AM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:10 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:14 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.60.91.11.21.210.80.60.40.30.30.30.50.70.9110.90.70.50.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Smith Point Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:47 AM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:11 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:24 PM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:15 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.11.21.31.210.80.60.40.30.30.30.50.811.11.110.80.50.30.20.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.