Friday, July20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:19PM Friday July 20, 2018 5:00 AM EDT (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 12:41AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 359 Am Edt Fri Jul 20 2018
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning...
Today..Light and variable winds, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 359 Am Edt Fri Jul 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure retreats to the northeast through Saturday, while a coastal low works up the eastern seaboard. Low pressure will move up the coast and affect the region over the weekend. A frontal boundary will then remain in the vicinity through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Point, NY
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location: 40.72, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200839
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
439 am edt Fri jul 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure retreats to the northeast through Saturday, while
a coastal low works up the eastern seaboard, affecting the region
over the weekend. A frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity
through mid- week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Ridging aloft and just offshore lifts to the north and east
today as a negatively tilted upper trough digs southeast from
the upper midwest. The latter of which will help steer a coastal
low up the eastern seaboard on Saturday. Before then though,
expect another day of sunny skies, seasonable temperatures and
low humidity. Southeast winds will increase to around 10 kt this
afternoon, but a bit stronger along the coast due to the
seabreeze.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Upper trough over the midwest closes off an upper low as it
continues to dig southeast, tracking into the ohio valley on
Saturday. Low pressure located along the mid atlantic coast
Saturday morning will work northward at it gets caught up in the
deep-layered southerly flow ahead of the trough. It never quite
phases and there appears to be issues with convective feedback
(due to parameterization) within the non-cam models as well as
large timing differences. The 00z GFS is as fast as the 3km
nam, while its ensemble is more in line with the slower ggem,
ecmwf,eps, and NAM 12km. Preference at this time was to trend
slower this run, thus have decreased rain chances Saturday
afternoon. The bulk of the rain and strong easterly flow will be
featured Saturday night. See long term section below.

Overnight lows will be near seasonable levels, while highs on
Saturday will only be in the 70s due to a strengthening
easterly flow and increasing mid and upper level clouds.

The rip current risk will increase through the day Saturday
with a moderate to possibly high risk in the afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
A highly anomalous pattern setting up for the weekend into mid next
week with 2-4 std deep upper low sinking south through the ohio
valley this weekend and into the deep south early next week.

Meanwhile, western atlantic ridging remains strong through the
period, beginning to gradually build westward early to mid next
week. The region will be in between both features with a deep
layered southerly flow and maritime tropical regime across the area.

Feature of concern continues to be a shortwave across the gulf
states SE us today being picked up and then phasing with the upper
low as it pivots nnw towards the region on sat. At the surface, good
agreement with an intensifying frontal low developing along the se
us coast Fri night, tracking up the coast Saturday towards the
delmarva, and then a marked operational and ensemble (gefs eps)
model trend over the last 12 hrs of low pressure taking a nnw track
up through nj E pa Sat night Sunday morning. With this said, there
is still at least a 100-150 mile spread in track of low pressure
from just NW of ny metro into e. Central pa ny. In addition a 6 hr
timing difference with approach of low. These type of differences
are to be expected with the convective activity expected to be
associated with the low, which will have to be refined over the next
24 hours.

With this type of track, main hazards appear to be heavy rain,
potential for a few low topped strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms with warm frontal passage and in warm conveyor belt,
and potential for a period of moderately strong gradient winds late
sat into Sunday morning.

In terms of heavy rain, a quick hitting rainfall between 1 to 2
inches still looks likely, with it becoming more likely that the
heavier rainfall axis (2-4+ inches) will occur west of the region,
across pa. The one caveat will be the position of the warm conveyor
belt rains and convection, which would have the potential to bring
some training of thunderstorms across LI ct and potential for
locally 2+ inches of rain. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
whether that axis will be over or east of the region at this time.

In terms of a severe thunderstorm threat, a low potential continues
for isolated strong damaging wind gusts or a weak tornado, in a high
shear low CAPE environment with 40-50 kt veering 950 hpa LLJ as the
warm front makes its passage. As mentioned above, there is still
uncertainty on timing placement weakening rate of core of an
anomalously strong S LLJ of 50-60 kt at 950 hpa. But with moist
adiabatic lapse rates in wake of warm frontal passage, potential
exists to transport strong to damaging winds down to the surface in
any isolated stronger convection within the LLJ axis. Will have to
monitor evolution of LLJ wcb over the next 24 hrs, as well as
depiction of convection in the cams to get a better sense of where
this threat may lie. At this point it appears it would be over e
li SE ct and points east.

Otherwise, moderately strong easterly winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph
are likely along the coast ahead of the low Sat night (low prob of
40+ mph), and then veering to the S SE early Sun morning in wake of
warm front. The S SE wind threat early Sun morning looks primarily
to be over E LI SE ct with llj.

The remainder of the period continues unsettled in this tropical
maritime flow regime with deep troughing to the west of the region
and atlantic ridging gradually building westward. Shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity appears likely Sun night into Monday
as a weak shortwave rounds the closed low to the west and the
weakening warm conveyor belt retrogrades west. It seems as the most
widespread shower axis pushes west of the hudson river and possibly
farther west for mid-week as atlantic high builds westward, but
likely pushes back across the region for late week weekend.

Aviation 07z Friday through Tuesday
High pressure gradually shifts towards the canadian maritimes
through the TAF period.

Vfr. Light SW to variable flow early morning becoming SE around 10
kt by noon. Shift to SE for all terminals may be off by 1-2 hours.

Winds diminish tonight, becoming more easterly by 12z Saturday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 5 mi105 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 79°F64°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi48 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 71°F1020.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi70 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 72°F2 ft1020.6 hPa (+0.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi67 min W 3.9 G 5.8 71°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 35 mi70 min N 3.9 G 5.8 69°F 65°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi42 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 77°F1021.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi42 min S 2.9 G 2.9
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi40 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 74°F1020.1 hPa67°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair63°F61°F93%1020.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair59°F59°F100%1020.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi67 minNNE 310.00 miFair53°F48°F86%1021.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair64°F61°F90%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3N7N8NE7NE63N8NE6N63S6S8S9S8S7S6S4S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW5NW7N9N9N11N15
G22
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N10N10N10N7N5N3N3NW3CalmNW5N4N3
2 days agoSW9SW12SW11SW9SW11S11
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SW9CalmSE7SW10S9SW5W5NW3NW5NW4CalmNW5NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Patchogue
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Fri -- 12:01 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:36 AM EDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:25 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:16 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.60.811.21.21.10.90.60.40.30.20.20.40.60.91.21.31.31.110.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Smith Point Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:20 AM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:26 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:00 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.70.91.21.31.31.10.90.70.50.30.20.20.40.711.31.41.31.210.80.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.