Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Great River, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:53PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:23 PM EST (01:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:46AMMoonset 5:41PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 627 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters. Chance of rain late this evening. Snow likely after midnight. Rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters. Rain with snow likely in the morning, then chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft on ice free waters.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft on ice free waters.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft on ice free waters.
Fri..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft on ice free waters.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
ANZ300 627 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure develops along the mid atlantic coast this evening and then passes across or just east of the waters on Wednesday before moving up the coast into the canadian maritimes Wednesday night. High pressure will then build to the south through the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Great River, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.15     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170017
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
717 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure develops along the mid atlantic coast tonight and
then passes near or just east of long island on Wednesday before
moving up the coast into the canadian maritimes Wednesday
night. High pressure will then build to the south through Friday
and move into the western atlantic this weekend. A cold front
then passes through Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Light snow continues across NW portions of orange county. Radar
returns are very light and accumulations have been slow through
the day with a report in greenville just under an inch. The
steadier precipitation develops after midnight across the
region.

The forecast largely remains on track. The latest 18z models as
well as the latest hrrr and hrrrx support the ongoing forecast
for tonight into Wednesday morning so no major changes have been
made. The biggest challenge continues to lie with the northward
extent of the warmer air and how far the rain snow line works.

Right now, it appears that it should remain all snow just north
of hpn and dxr, and about 10 to 20 miles to the north and west
of the i-95 corridor in new jersey.

A prolonged period of SE winds in the low levels ahead of the
developing low off the mid atlantic coat tonight will gradually
increase temperatures in the boundary layer. This warming
appears to be sufficient enough for primarily a rain event along
the immediate coast. At the same time, interior sections of the
lower hudson valley and southwest connecticut will be the
recipients of a moderate snowfall event with amounts around
warning criteria. No changes made to the winter weather
headlines from the previous update.

An amplifying upper trough moving across the ohio valley
tonight will allow for the forcing to shift to the mid atlantic
coast tonight, with low pressure developing and tracking
northeast to near or just southeast of long island in the
morning. The transition of energy is slow enough that an
inverted trough to the NW of the low track, extending back into
the hudson valley of new york, will allow for an influx of
warmer air ahead of the low.

Temperatures will remain nearly steady overnight and even slowly
rise. Lows will range from the upper 20s in the interior to the
mid 30s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Low pressure near long island in the morning lifts northeast
during the day and up into the canadian maritimes by Wednesday
night. Precipitation shuts down across most of the area by late
morning early afternoon and perhaps ends as period of snow at
the coast. Even if the changeover to snow occurs a bit faster
than indicated in the city at the coast, limited duration of
precipitation on the backside of the low will limit any
accumulation. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 30s with
nw winds developing on the backside of the storm. Gust up to 20
mph develop late in the day and possibly linger into first half
of the night.

Cold air will follow for Wednesday night with lows in the teens
inland and around 20 at the coast. This is slightly below
normal.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Surface high pressure will build to our south on Thursday and
Friday. Meanwhile, an upper trough shifts through with some
shortwave energy Thursday night into Friday. Moisture looks
insufficient for any pcpn, so dry weather is expected. Highs a few
degrees below normal for Thursday, returning to near normal on
Friday. Ridging aloft will then keep the weekend dry with warming
temperatures.

Low pressure enters the great lakes region Sunday night, eventually
tracking through quebec on Tuesday. Some warm advection pcpn may
reach some of the northern zones Sunday night into Monday morning,
which could be in the form of a wintry mix. A cold front otherwise
approaches with increasing chances of rain during the afternoon and
night. Some timing differences still exist among the global models
with the cold front passage, so have capped pops at chance through
Tuesday morning. Rain chances otherwise diminish Tuesday afternoon
with dry weather likely returning Tuesday night. Temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday will remain above normal.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
A developing coastal low with move north towards the region
overnight, tracking just southeast of long island on Wednesday,
and then into the canadian maritimes by Wednesday evening.

Conditions expected to gradually lower to MVFR this evening, then
lower to ifr late tonight as precipitation develops across region.

Expect all snow at kswf, which may be moderate at times between
06z and 12z. Rain expected to develop for nyc nj terminals after
midnight, likely mixing with snow towards daybreak, and then
briefly changing to all snow Wed morning. Khpn kbdr may see a
mix of rain snow overnight, before changing to all snow towards
daybreak. All rain expected to for kisp kgon. Precip taper off
from W to E Wed morning into early afternoon, with conditions
improving toVFR.

E NE winds less than 10 kt overnight, becoming N nnw towards
daybreak. Winds become wnw with gusts 20 to 25 kt Wed afternoon
continuing into eve push, likely averaging just right of 310
magnetic.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi53 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 32°F 34°F1029.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 32 mi93 min E 12 G 14 42°F 41°F5 ft1029.1 hPa (-0.8)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi53 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 31°F 32°F1030.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi93 min E 5.8 G 7.8 41°F 42°F4 ft1029.2 hPa (-0.4)37°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 39 mi113 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 36°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi53 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 34°F 35°F1030.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 46 mi53 min 35°F 35°F1029.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 49 mi53 min E 5.1 G 7 37°F 33°F1030.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi53 min NE 7 G 8 34°F 1030 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi87 minE 410.00 miOvercast37°F30°F79%1029.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi30 minNNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F28°F85%1029.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi27 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F32°F86%1030 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNW4N6N5NW6N6E6E6SE4S6SE7SE9SE6CalmE4E4Calm
1 day agoN7N7N7NE9NE11N12NE10N8N10N7N9N10NE11NE14
G20
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2 days agoN17
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Tide / Current Tables for Great River, Connetquot River, Long Island, New York
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Great River
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:35 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:35 AM EST     0.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:58 PM EST     0.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.20.1000.10.30.50.60.70.80.70.50.30.20-0-00.10.30.50.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:25 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:02 AM EST     0.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:05 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:25 PM EST     0.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.1000.20.40.50.70.80.70.60.40.30.10-000.20.40.50.60.60.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.