Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:32PM Sunday November 19, 2017 4:41 PM EST (21:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:32AMMoonset 6:43PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 403 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of rain and snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 403 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds southwest of the waters tonight, moving to the south of the waters and eventually offshore Monday into Monday night. High pressure departs to the east Tuesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday. Another high builds late week before next system impacts the area next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 192054
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
354 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds southwest of the region tonight, moving to
the south of the region and eventually offshore Monday into
Monday night. High pressure departs to the east Tuesday,
followed by a cold front Wednesday. Another high builds late
week before next system impacts the area next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
The polar upper level jet will be south of the region. In the
mid levels, a trough axis moves through the region bringing its
associated vorticity maxima with it. This upper level
disturbance will enhance lift and with the leftover moisture,
could result in a few snow showers with the continued cold air
advection. Snow showers are the precip type due to wet bulb
cooling. With limits in low level moisture and not much QPF from
numerical model guidance, left as slight chance.

At the surface, high pressure will build to the southwest of the
region. The parent low attached to the cold front that moved
across earlier will continue to deepen as it heads into eastern
quebec. This will keep a steep pressure gradient within the
region.

Concerning winds, they will remain gusty out of the west but
will be lowering in magnitude as the boundary layer winds are
expected to lower. The decrease of temperature at the surface
especially with the periods where there are fewer clouds will
allow for surface to lower in temperature more, disrupting the
vertical mixing and allowing for gusts to become infrequent.

Wind advisory was not extended into the evening as winds in the
3-8kft layer show remarkable decrease more towards 30-35 kt
going through the evening, making for less wind to mix down.

This was conveyed with both NAM and GFS bufkit soundings. Lows
were a blend of mav ecs as met numbers seemed too high.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
The region is more in between the polar and subtropical upper
level jets. In the mid levels, more of a ridging trend will take
shape. At the surface, high pressure moves eastward towards the
carolina coastline Monday and then off into the atlantic Monday
night.

Dry conditions are expected through the period. Monday is
expected to be cooler, about 5 degrees below normal with more
gusty wnw flow, mitigating sensible heat transfer.

For Monday night, winds are expected to lower with gusts
diminishing. With mostly clear conditions, expect radiational
cooling to result in a more typical vast range of lows between
the urban heat island and inland rural sections.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Better model agreement today in this active and progressive pattern.

Aloft, active northern stream expected as multiple shortwaves pass
during this time frame.

Looks like the operational GFS has now trended much closer to other
global models with handling of mid week trough. Latest GFS is
notably weaker with trough along the gulf states Wednesday, and is
thus not developing a wave of low pressure off the coast Thursday,
like it did 24 hours ago.

As such, looks like WAA on the backside of the high will provide a
mild breezy day Tuesday, likely the warmest of this time frame.

Plenty of Sun will give way to increasing clouds as high level
moisture approaches, along with moisture advecting from the south in
the lower and mid levels. NAM wrf seems to be the most aggressive in
outputting precip ahead of the cold front. Still looks like best
chance for rain will be east of nyc late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Dry thereafter as ridge builds. A cold front passes with little
fanfare Friday, then next shortwave approaches this weekend. Colder
air advects in behind a front by Sunday. Minimal pops warranted next
weekend with this system.

Above normal temps Tuesday in WAA regime, then temps tumble to just
below normal from late Wednesday through Sunday. Looks like a cool
day Thursday, with a slight rebound Friday and Saturday before
falling back again Sunday. A model MOS blend followed which is in
line with latest wpc numbers.

Aviation 21z Sunday through Friday
High pressure builds in through tonight.

Vfr. Wnw sustained winds 20-25 kt with frequent gusts around 30 kt
and occasional gusts around 35 kt through 23z. Winds then back
slightly by about 10-20 degrees this evening with sustained winds
around 15 kt along with gusts 20-25 kt.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Friday
Monday Vfr. W-nw winds g20-25kt. Gusts diminish gradually at
night.

Tuesday MainlyVFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night in showers.

Sw winds g20-25kt.

Wednesday MVFR possible with showers during the day.VFR at
night. NW winds g20kt in the aftn evening.

Thursday-Friday Vfr.

Marine
Steep pressure gradient remains tonight, so still expecting
gales for all waters tonight. Winds will be getting closer to
35kt through the night as boundary layer flow decreases. The
boundary layer flow further decreases Monday with gales becoming
marginal. SCA will then be more likely across the waters on
Monday especially the ocean with high seas of 5-8 feet
continuing. SCA conditions still probable for the ocean Monday
night while non-ocean waters will see an eventual decrease in
wind gusts to below SCA late.

Winds increase in SW flow Tuesday. A few locations could
approach gale force or 35 kt. Winds then diminish somewhat
Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Low pressure passes
southeast of the waters Wednesday as the cold front crosses the
area. NW flow Wed night back to the west and diminishes further
Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds. A cold front passes
Friday, with the ridge building back yet again.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are anticipated.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for ctz005>012.

Ny... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for nyz067>075-
078>081-176>179.

Nj... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for njz002-004-006-
103>108.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jm pw
near term... Jm
short term... Jm
long term... Pw
aviation... Jc
marine... Jm pw
hydrology... Jm pw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi41 min WNW 23 G 29 46°F 47°F31°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi56 min NW 21 G 35 47°F 3 ft34°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi41 min WNW 21 G 29 49°F 32°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi41 min N 26 G 32 46°F 52°F1003.4 hPa (+3.9)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi41 min NW 8.9 G 17 44°F 52°F1000.5 hPa (+4.0)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi51 min NW 25 G 33 50°F 57°F9 ft1000.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi51 min NW 23 G 29 51°F 58°F5 ft1000.9 hPa (+3.5)36°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi41 min 48°F 53°F1003 hPa (+3.3)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 42 mi116 min W 25 G 31 50°F 7 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi41 min NNW 20 G 27 46°F 52°F1000.2 hPa (+4.0)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi41 min NNW 17 G 21 48°F 49°F1003.3 hPa (+3.3)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi41 min NW 18 G 25 47°F 1002.8 hPa (+3.5)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi41 min 48°F 52°F1002.6 hPa (+3.2)
MHRN6 49 mi41 min NW 21 G 25

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW12
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G36
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N16
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N18
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi48 minNW 15 G 3110.00 miA Few Clouds46°F28°F50%1001.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi45 minWNW 18 G 3310.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy45°F28°F52%1000.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi45 minWNW 20 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy46°F30°F54%1000.9 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS14
G19
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1 day agoW10W7W7W6W5SW8W6W6CalmE3W8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW7SW9
G19
S14
G19
S11S11
G19
S10
2 days agoW11NW14
G20
W10W12W11W12W11W8W12
G21
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NW12NW10
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G24
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G25
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G27
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G20
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G22
W16
G21
W14
G23
NW11
G21
NW14

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:48 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:21 AM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:57 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:43 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:46 PM EST     0.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30.1-0-0.100.20.50.81.11.21.210.70.40.2-0-0.1-00.10.40.60.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:17 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM EST     0.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:52 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:43 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:09 PM EST     0.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.1000.20.40.60.80.80.80.60.40.30.10-00.10.30.50.60.70.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.