Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:48PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:37 PM EDT (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:36AMMoonset 4:27PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1240 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1240 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the waters moves offshore today. A warm front approaches this evening and moves north of the waters late tonight into early Friday morning. A cold front approaches from the west Friday and moves across the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure returns on Sunday into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 171708
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
108 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the northeast and mid atlantic states will
drift offshore today. A warm front will approach this evening
and move north late tonight into Friday morning. A cold front
approaches Friday, moving across the region late Friday night
into early Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday into
Monday before a series of troughs and a cold front pass through
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Minor updates to temperatures dewpoints and timing of
precipitation tonight, otherwise forecast still on track.

An upper ridge axis will remain west of the region most of the
day, moving into the northeast around 00z Friday. Meanwhile
surface high pressure centered over upstate new york will drift
to off the northeast and mid atlantic coasts. The next shortwave
to affect he region will move into the great lakes region. The
upper flow will be somewhat blocky as the ridge builds and
moves slowly east. Will be dry with increasing clouds late in
the day as the ridge axis moves into the region.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
The upper ridge axis passes to the east and builds tonight into
Friday night as the upper pattern remains rather blocky as
heights rise as the ridge moves into the northern atlantic.

This will keep the shortwave from moving east and lifts into
southern canada and weakens as yet another moves into the upper
mid west and then into the great lakes region Friday night. At
the surface low pressure over the upper midwest will rotate
slowly into ontario and western quebec through Friday night.

A weak warm frontal boundary increases today and slow
approaches from the southwest this evening. Precipitation will
be delayed until late tonight as the warm front slowly pushes
into the region as the parent low remains well to the west. Best
chances or precipitation will be across northeastern new jersey
into the lower hudson valley. The region becomes warm sectored
Friday as the warm front lifts through. CAPE and surface based
instability increase during the day as the cold front slowly
approaches. There may be a break in the precipitation of a brief
time once the warm front lifts north, and until the cold front
nears later in the day. Best instability will be inland as a
deep southerly flow keeps a marine layer across long island and
into southern connecticut. Best chances of thunderstorms,
possible strong, will be inland Friday afternoon into the
evening. Then the storms will weaken and move into long island
and southern connecticut Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Cold front moves through the area during Saturday with a chance
of lingering showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Models
then agree that the available moisture is probably too low for
consideration of afternoon showers and storms, especially since
a lagging upper trough and shortwave appear to be too late to
arrive for necessary lift and mid level instability. Will
therefore go with a dry forecast for the afternoon. Then with
stabilizing lower levels, the upper trough should pass through
dry during Saturday night. An even blend of mav nam MOS looked
good for temperatures.

High pressure builds in on Sunday and lasts into Monday as the
upper flow becomes zonal to anticyclonic. Dry weather for both
days with highs mostly in the mid 80s.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, low pressure tracks across
southeastern canada. This will bring a couple of pre-frontal
troughs here before a cold front eventually passes through
sometime most likely on Wednesday. Looks like the best
combination of moisture, lift and shear could be late day
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will cap pops at chance Tuesday
through Wednesday for now given the timing uncertainty of the
surface features and sources of lift aloft. Highs generally in
the 80s both days.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure will slide offshore this afternoon before a warm front
approaches from the southwest tonight. A cold front will
approach from late Friday.

Vfr this afternoon and early tonight before deteriorating conditions
late tonight into Friday.

Friday will be very unsettled with the threat of showers and
scattered thunderstorms in the morning and then again with the
approaching cold front late in the afternoon. Gusty winds and
MVFR ifr are possible with any heavier shower or thunderstorm.

Light southeast winds near 10 kt this afternoon become mainly
southerly overnight and Friday. Gusts to 25 kt possible Friday
afternoon across much the region but especially along the coast.

Higher gusts possible with any thunderstorm.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi82 min ESE 12 G 14 72°F 78°F54°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi49 min NE 7 G 11 74°F 74°F1017.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi55 min SSE 7 G 8.9 73°F 75°F1017.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi47 min E 12 G 14 72°F 74°F3 ft1017.9 hPa (+0.0)60°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi47 min ESE 12 G 14 73°F 75°F3 ft1017.1 hPa (-0.6)62°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi49 min 78°F 75°F1017.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi49 min SSW 8 G 8.9 71°F 75°F1018.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi49 min ESE 8 G 12 73°F 76°F1017.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi49 min S 15 G 17 1018.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi49 min 78°F 76°F1017.8 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi49 min SE 7 G 11

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi44 minSE 910.00 miFair77°F57°F50%1018 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi41 minSE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F53°F41%1017.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi41 minSE 710.00 miFair79°F54°F42%1018 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11N12
G15
N9N11N8NW5W3CalmW4CalmN4E3CalmN4N6N6N4NE4E66SE7SE6S8SE11
1 day agoSE7S5S5S7S6SE4SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW4W3CalmNW33NW5NW7N9N11NW9N10N10
2 days agoSW66S8S6S5S6SW5S4S4SW3SW3SW5S4SW4W4NW4CalmNE3CalmE3SE8SE7SE9SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:58 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:34 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-000.20.40.60.70.70.60.50.20-0.1-0.100.30.50.81.11.21.210.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 AM EDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:53 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.50.60.70.60.50.40.30.10.100.10.30.60.70.80.80.70.60.40.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.