Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:10PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 6:34 PM EDT (22:34 UTC) Moonrise 11:02PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 347 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 347 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in through Wednesday, then offshore Wednesday night. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move across the area Thursday night. High pressure returns to the region on Friday. The first in a series of fronts will move into region during Saturday night, with subsequent fronts moving across the region during the remainder of the holiday weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 212020 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
420 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds in through Wednesday, then offshore
Wednesday night. A warm front will approach on Thursday and
move across the area Thursday night. High pressure returns to
the region on Friday. The first in a series of fronts will move
into region during Saturday night, with subsequent fronts moving
across the region during the remainder of the holiday weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Apart from a few wisps of cirrus passing to the south, clear
skies will prevail into the night amidst broader subsidence as
deep layer ridging builds across the region. Although gusty
winds will gradually begin to subside into the evening, the
pressure gradient should remain sufficiently tight to hinder
more favorable radiational cooling conditions overnight. As
such, mixing will aid in low temperatures closer to seasonable
values, in the 40s across outlying areas and in the 50s
elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Deep layer ridging builds overhead into Wednesday, with flow
lightening sufficiently enough to allow for sea breeze
development in the afternoon. Skies will initially be clear, but
some cirrus could overspread the area in the afternoon as
subtle short waves move along the periphery of the upper ridge.

Otherwise, expect seasonable highs.

The ridge axis then becomes shunted southward overnight with the
approach of a strong short wave. Between the attendant surface
low to the west and high pressure moving offshore, flow will
become more southerly, allowing a return to warm advection, and
leading to a subsequent increase in clouds. Although a few
showers will be possible, subsidence aloft will gradually
decrease the coverage of showers overnight, with the greatest
chance of rain persisting across the lower hudson valley into
portions of new jersey. The return to southerly flow and
increase in cloud cover will maintain low temperatures close to
or a few degrees above climatological normals.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
The overall pattern to begin the period will feature an
intermountain west us trough and a southeastern us ridge. Later in
the period the western trough will deamplify and progress east in
the central CONUS and midwest along with a de-amplification and
displacement south of the southeastern ridge.

To begin the period the region will undergo warm advection as a warm
front off to the west will begin to approach the region. Thicknesses
and 850 mb temperatures will rise throughout the day on Thursday. As
the high moves offshore a southerly flow is expected to get
established, especially across the eastern half of the area. This
should serve to stabilize locations across the eastern half of the
cwa throughout the day with a good cap in place, at least initially.

However, further west and southwest more destabilization is expected
to occur. There is some timing differences with the shortwave that
moves just north of the region, with the timing consensus from the
numerical guidance focusing on Thursday evening and the first half
of Thursday night. If this shortwave feature and any subsequent
height falls can make its effects felt into the western half of the
cwa by late in the day and during the early evening then the chances
of convection, and possibly some severe convection will be enhanced.

Spc has the area under a marginal to slight risk of severe weather
on Thursday into Thursday evening, with the higher risk across
locations west of new york city. The convective threat does appear
to be highly conditional, meaning that if the ingredients come
together any convection could become severe. However, not seeing
consistency with the features amongst the models to feel confident
in seeing severe weather at this time. Instability overall is not
overly impressive, however there may be enough instability to work
on as winds to pick up aloft and some signs of airmass stacking are
evident across western parts of the region later on Thursday. Effect
bulk shear will increase and should work on any convection that does
develop. There will be slightly backed surface winds, so it looks
like a good set up for good 0-1 km directional shear. Therefore any
storms that do develop could have some rotation with them, with the
main threat with any storms likely being wind. The mid level
shortwave will move along quickly so any showers and convection
should move out of the region by 6-9z Friday with clearing skies
into Friday morning.

By 12z on Friday a deep northwest flow with CAA gets established as
clearing skies should set up quickly in the wake of the departing
shortwave. Deep layer ridging is progged to take place during Friday
resulting in a good deal of sunshine. A northwest wind be may be a
bit gusty at times, but otherwise it will be a pleasant and dry day.

Upper level ridging is expected to hold through most of Saturday,
with some height suppression then taking place late Saturday into
Saturday night. This will lead to the approach of a warm front late
Saturday into Saturday night. The forecast then looks to be a bit
more difficult beginning around then with lower confidence going into
the remainder of the holiday weekend. The region should get into the
warm sector on Sunday with the modeling differing on some of the
details. As the trailing cold front gets closer to the region late
Sunday and Sunday night the chance for showers and possibly
thunderstorms will increase. The big question then becomes have
quickly does the cold front progress south and east on Monday. With
the upper level pattern that is forecast there is a chance that the
boundary will stall and get hung up over the region. This would
result in unsettled weather for the holiday on Monday. The shortwave
will then eject east which would set up dry and cool advection in
its wake leading to pleasant conditions into Tuesday.

Temperatures are expected to average near normal to slightly above
normal through Saturday night. Temperatures will then get slightly
warmer Sunday into Monday, before settling to near normal levels
again by Tuesday.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
High pressure builds into the region.

Vfr with winds mainly north of 310 magnetic. Sustained winds mostly
around 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt. Winds and gusts diminish
early this evening, with the gusts ending 01z to 02z and winds
diminishing to 10 kt or less overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi65 min WNW 18 G 21 69°F 64°F44°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi41 min N 18 G 23 67°F 59°F1014.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi41 min NNW 9.9 G 17 70°F 54°F1012.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi45 min WSW 12 G 14 61°F 56°F3 ft1013.2 hPa (-0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi25 min NW 14 G 18 64°F 58°F1013.9 hPa48°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi41 min 72°F 60°F1014.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi41 min N 22 G 32 66°F 59°F1012.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi41 min NW 20 G 24 70°F 1013.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi41 min NNW 17 G 21 69°F 63°F1015.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi41 min 70°F 64°F1014.5 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi41 min NW 15 G 23

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi42 minNW 13 G 2210.00 miFair71°F33°F25%1013.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi99 minWNW 15 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F36°F26%1011.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi99 minWNW 15 G 2610.00 miFair72°F32°F23%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10SW7S6SW4S5W4NW14
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SW6S5S5S7S7S8SW6SW7SW6SW8S10S11S12--S13S13S10
2 days ago--SW11SW7S7S8S6S4SW4SW3SW3S3S4S4S6S9SW10S8S8S15
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York (2)
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Bay Shore
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Tue -- 12:09 AM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:40 PM EDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.110.70.40.20-0.100.30.50.80.90.90.80.70.50.30.10.10.10.40.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Coast Guard Station
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:19 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:13 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.10.60.2-0.1-00.40.91.41.71.91.91.51.10.70.40.10.20.61.11.622.32.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.