Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jersey City, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:31PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:46 PM EST (23:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:32AMMoonset 4:10PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 627 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Saturday evening...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Snow likely early this evening, then slight chance of snow late this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain, snow and sleet in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 627 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will move off the middle atlantic this evening and offshore tonight. A series of weak low pressure and frontal systems passing through the area this weekend through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jersey City, NJ
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location: 40.72, -74.05     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 152123
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
423 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will move off the middle atlantic this evening and
offshore tonight. A series of weak low pressure and frontal
systems will pass through the area this weekend through mid
week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Snow continues to overspread the tri-state area. Impacts to the
evening commute are anticipated, with potential for significant
impacts within the winter weather advisory area. No changes
were made to the headlines.

The only change made to the snowfall forecast was across
southern coastal long island where some locations could approach
4 inches. This is due to increasing potential for moderate snow
banding in conjunction with best frontogenesis this evening.

There is a bit of uncertainty in how much snow will fall across
ne nj and interior of the lower hudson valley and southern
connecticut. It is possible amounts could end up lower with
minimal impact since best lift appears to be setting up just
south, within the advisory area.

Divergence aloft is impressive as a 170-180 kt jet streak moves
across the middle atlantic. Our region will be located in the
favored left exit region for synoptic lift this evening. There
will also be interaction phasing of the northern and southern
stream, which combined with the upper jet dynamics, will
continue to organize a surface low off the middle atlantic coast
this evening and then south and east of long island overnight.

Mesoscale models continue to indicate a swath of strong 850-700
mb frontogenesis across the southern portion of the area. The
lift coincides within the dendritic growth zone which may
enhance snowfall and produce banding, especially across long
island.

Thermodynamic profiles do not show much liquid water saturation
aloft for riming, so the snow will be a dry, high ratio type
similar to what we observed Thursday morning. Ratios may be
15-18:1. Surface temperatures will fall into the middle and
upper 20s as the snow begins continues to fall.

The snow tapers off around 7-9pm in nyc and around midnight on
the east end of long island. Liquid equivalent amounts around
0.05 inches inland and close to 0.20 inches are forecast across
long island.

Clearing and increasing winds are expected tonight behind the
departing low as the pressure gradient tightens between the
strengthening departing low, and strong high pressure over the
se us. Another chilly night with lows in the ranging from upper
teens well inland to mid 20s at the coast.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Polar upper low pivots southeast into new england on Sat and
offshore Saturday night. Wnw CAA low flow over the great lakes,
accompanied by shortwave lift and left front of 150 kt jet
streak, should be enough to extend light snow shower activity
into the region later Sat morning through Sat afternoon. A
dusting is possible in spots, particularly NW hills.

Otherwise, breezy and chilly on Sat with abundant cloud cover
and glancing caa. Temps will likely hold in the lower to mid 30s
for much of the region, with windchills in the 20s.

Shortwave slides east Sat night, with high pressure building in
from the west. This will have snow showers tapering from W to e
early in the evening, with potential for good radiational
cooling conds for outlying areas later Sat night. Temps should
fall into the teens for outlying areas, with mid-upper 20s for
urban centers.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Models in good agreement with a fairly progressive upper
pattern in place through this period, with a series of weak
frontal systems moving through the region Sunday night through
midweek as a muted northern stream longwave trough slides from
the great lakes into the northeast.

First system of note will be Sunday night into Monday as the
closed low currently over baja mexico, shears towards the ne
ahead of a developing western us trough. Models differing in
the strength of this energy and amounts of moisture drawn
northward, but potential exists for a light precip event Sunday
night into Monday morning. Thermal profiles suggest a start as
snow or wintry mix, transitioning to rain for nyc li, but
potentially remaining a wintry mix for the interior into Monday
morning. Too early for specific details on this light precip
event, but potential exists for hazardous travel conditions
n&nw of nyc LI for Monday morning commute.

Thereafter, models in fairly good agreement with the broad bu
shallow northern stream trough approaching the region on
Tuesday and sliding through during the midweek. At the surface,
the primary low pressure system rides through quebec ontario
with trailing cold front approaching the region Tuesday night.

Overall, appears to be mainly a light QPF event for the Monday
night into Tuesday evening period, due to limited interaction
between northern and southern stream. Thermal profile suggests
precip would be mainly liquid, but could be dealing with
freezing rain across interior Monday night as cold air
typically has a tough time scouring our in this setup.

Upper trough swings through the NE Tue night into Wed with a
glancing shot of modifying arctic air in the wake of the cold
front for Wed thu.

Upper flow flattens and even becomes a bit ridged for Thursday
ahead of the next northern stream trough digging into the upper
plains, which should allow for a moderation in temps ahead of
next potential frontal system.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
***snow expected for evening push***
low pressure passes to the south this evening before quickly
ejecting eastward overnight.

Snow is already overspreading the area, and although initial
conditions areVFR, expect visibilities to quickly drop as snow
intensifies. Steadier snow will generally fall from around 20z, then
quickly end from west to east between 02-05z.

Expect a widespread 1-4 inches, with the highest totals across the
nyc terminals into kisp, kbdr and kgon.

Light and variable winds become westerly at 5-10 kt this evening.

Winds increase tonight with some gusts to 20kt after midnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 2 mi47 min 24°F 46°F1013.9 hPa (-0.5)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 4 mi47 min W 8 G 8.9 23°F 1014 hPa (-0.5)
MHRN6 8 mi47 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi47 min 23°F 44°F1013.5 hPa (-0.4)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi47 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 24°F 42°F1014.1 hPa (-0.4)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 18 mi47 min NW 7 G 8.9 24°F 39°F1014.2 hPa (-0.4)
44022 - Execution Rocks 20 mi47 min W 5.8 G 7.8 26°F 23°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi57 min WNW 12 G 14 28°F 50°F1 ft1012.9 hPa (-0.5)28°F

Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NW16
G21
NW15
G19
NW11
G16
NW10
G14
NW14
G18
NW10
NW14
G18
NW12
G15
NW8
NW3
G7
NW6
W4
NW4
SW6
W8
NW5
G8
W1
W3
NW1
G5
N3
W5
NW7
W8
W8
1 day
ago
W26
G33
W20
G26
W17
G21
W13
G17
W12
G16
SW16
SW1
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SE4
G7
E5
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G9
N7
N11
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G17
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G17
NW14
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NW17
G21
NW18
G22
NW17
G21
NW17
G22
NW15
G22
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G17
2 days
ago
W19
G24
NW25
G31
NW19
G28
NW23
G31
NW19
G28
NW23
G29
NW22
G30
W25
G32
W24
G30
NW23
G29
W27
W25
G31
W28
W28
W23
G31
W28
G38
W24
G33
W27
G35
W27
W25
W23
G29
W23

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York City, Central Park, NY6 mi56 minWNW 41.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist24°F19°F84%1012.9 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ6 mi56 minWSW 50.75 miLight Snow24°F21°F88%1013.5 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ10 mi56 minNNW 31.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist23°F19°F88%1013.1 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi56 minVar 40.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F21°F88%1013.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi56 minW 80.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F23°F92%1013.7 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ16 mi54 minN 03.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist22°F19°F92%1014.1 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ20 mi62 minSSW 43.00 miLight Snow23°F21°F93%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
G17
NW8NW9NW5NW10NW7W6W6NW5NW6NW6SW4SW5SW4W6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW6W5W7W5
1 day agoW15
G23
W14
G21
W11
G18
W10SW8SW11CalmCalmCalmN6N8N9N9N9N11N11NW14NW13
G18
NW12NW13
G21
W16
G23
NW15
G21
W15NW11
G21
2 days agoW14
G20
NW15
G25
NW16
G25
NW16
G24
NW14
G25
NW17
G22
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G24
W21
G27
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W20W15
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G26
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G25
W21
G28
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W20
G41
W28
G36
W17
G28
W21
G32
W16
G24
W22
G26
W20
G24
W13
G23

Tide / Current Tables for Jersey City, Con Rail RR. Ferry, Hudson River, New Jersey
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Jersey City
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:01 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:21 AM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:35 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:10 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:41 PM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.31.32.53.44.34.74.63.92.91.90.90.10.10.71.72.63.43.943.52.61.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:00 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:12 AM EST     1.80 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM EST     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:32 PM EST     1.64 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:10 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:02 PM EST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-01.21.81.71.40.90.1-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.5-1.3-0.70.61.51.61.30.90.3-0.5-1.1-1.3-1.2-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.