Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mastic Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:31PM Sunday November 19, 2017 3:50 AM EST (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:30AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 110 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.storm warning in effect until noon est today...
Overnight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 50 kt late. Waves around 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 kt early. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds around 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, decreasing to 30 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 110 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. As developing low pressure passes to the north, its associated warm front will lift through the area, followed by a strong cold around daybreak. High pressure will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will build late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mastic Beach, NY
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location: 40.75, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190630
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
130 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
As developing low pressure passes to the north, its associated
warm front will lift through the area, followed by a strong
cold around daybreak. High pressure will pass to the south
Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High
pressure will build late week. Low pressure will then move
across on Saturday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Updated the forecast, mainly due to the lack of showers east of
nyc early this morning. Pre-frontal rain bands are beginning to
move into areas to the west and are expected to fill in advance
eastward through the remainder of the night. Pops have been
adjusted as such.

Obs indicate warm front has lifted into southern ct and extends
back through khpn-kteb to N of kttn. Winds to the N of the front
are light and have picked up with better mixing to the south of
it. Have also adjusted winds to better reflect this. Some
question as to how strong the winds will get late tonight right
ahead of the front as 50-60kt LLJ moves through. How much of
being transported to the sfc will depend on the strength and
location of the developing low level inversion.

No changes to wind headlines at this time, although high wind
warning may be cancelled with the 4am issuance.

Instability with bands of showers overnight will be limited to
the low to mid levels, with an h7 inversion limiting
deeper greater instability that would have otherwise led
to thunder.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Monday
Cold front will be moving across in two shots, the first marking
arrival of a dry slot and departure of the s-sw low level jet,
the second marking the arrival of strong w-nw winds after
passage of a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough along.

There could be a brief lull in winds between these two features,
but then w-nw winds likely to gust just over 45 mph with
passage of the second trough (with NAM indicating narrow band of
showers with the front), and then during the late morning and
afternoon via a tight pressure gradient and h8 winds up to 40-45
kt. Stronger winds should hang on a few hrs longer into the
daytime than model forecasts indicate, and NAM also indicates
stronger h8 winds arriving in the late afternoon after another
mid level shortwave passage; think winds will however start to
gradually diminish by that point, so while gusty NW winds will
continue into Sunday night, have not extended the advisory into
Sunday night.

After morning highs in the 50s, temps should gradually fall in
the afternoon, back into the 40s by late afternoon, then into
the 20s and 30s tonight. A few lake effect snow showers may
make it into the area late Sunday night especially just NW of
nyc.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Aloft, models agree early in the period as initial shortwave passes
east northeast. Downstream shortwave will then make fast eastward
progress. Here is where some differences arise. Northern stream
potent shortwave tracks across the great lakes region as it lifts
northeast, with most of the energy and associated dynamics lifting
well to our north Wednesday. Southern stream trough lags a bit as it
moves across the gulf states. By late Wednesday into Thursday,
operational GFS seems to be a deep strong outlier with regard to
closed low around the gulf states as the trough makes eastward
progress.

This upper trough weakens over the western atlantic Thursday, with
next shortwave in the northern stream moving eastward toward the
northeast by next weekend.

At the sfc, high pressure passes to the south Monday and Tuesday.

Gusty NW flow will back around the SW as the high tracks east.

Thereafter, a cold front passes Wednesday. This front is associated
with northern stream shortwave. This looks like the best chance for
measurable precipitation, late Tuesday night into Wednesday, chance
pops.

Waves of low pressure likely develop along the front well to our
south in the Wednesday night Thursday time frame. Again, GFS appears
to be an outlier with wave of low pressure developing and passing
close enough for measurable precip Thursday. Otherwise, model
consensus suggest any precip remains to our southeast as ridge
builds to the NW and waves remain far enough to the southeast.

Will maintain a dry forecast as a result, leaning toward consensus.

However, this will need to be watched.

Dry through Friday before the next chance for precip arrives with
the shortwave, clipper low Saturday.

As for temperatures Monday-Saturday, followed a model MOS blend.

Below normal temperatures Monday will warm to slightly above normal
Tuesday as WAA occurs behind the high. Behind a cold front
Wednesday, normal temps likely fall to below normal Thursday and
Friday before rebounding yet again in WAA ahead of the clipper low
Saturday.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
A warm front moves north of the terminals early this morning. A
cold front follows around daybreak with high pressure building
behind it through this evening.

S flow will increase through the morning hours with gusts
returning to all terminals between 06-09z. The gusts will
initially be 20-30 kt, increasing to 30-40 kt towards day
break. Some eastern terminals may see peak gusts 45-50 kt. Llws
is also forecast until around 12z. S-sw winds shift to the
w-wnw 12z-15z with gusts frequently 35-40 kt during the day.

The gusts will begin to weaken late in the afternoon and early
in the evening.

MainlyVFR conditions to start with conditions gradually
becoming MVFR towards daybreak. There may also be some brief
localized ifr. Conditions will improve toVFR 12z-15z behind
the cold front.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Monday Vfr. W-nw winds g20-30kt. Gusts diminish gradually at
night.

Tuesday MainlyVFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night in
showers. SW winds g15-20kt.

Wednesday MVFR possible with showers during the day.VFR at
night. W-nw winds g15-20kt.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
No changes to headlines attm. Slight decrease in winds and seas
over the waters to start with stronger winds taking a bit
longer to arrive than forecast. S-sw gales develop on all waters
overnight, then a strong low level jet with possibly only a
weak inversion, should allow storm force gusts to occur on the
eastern ocean sound bays, where a storm warning remains in
effect. Farther west, winds should still gust to 35-45 kt, and a
gale warning also remains in effect.

After a cold frontal passage Sunday morning, w-nw winds should
gust to 40-45 kt through the day, and fall below gale force on
the non-ocean waters after midnight.

Gusty NW W flow Monday will back around the SW Monday night and
Tuesday as high pressure passes to our south, then east. These
sw winds eventually shift around the N NW behind a cold front
Wednesday. Northerly winds persist Wednesday night and Thursday.

As for sea forecasts, rough conditions persist in the Monday and
Tuesday time frame due to strong winds tight pressure gradient.

Nearshore wave prediction system looked quite reasonable and was
followed. For Wednesday and Thursday, had to knock down sea
forecasts from wave watch iii as GFS appears to be an outlier with
regard to a wave of low pressure that approaches the waters from the
south southeast.

Hydrology
Rain with a warm frontal passage tonight, and then with bands of
moderate to locally heavy showers with a strong cold frontal
passage into the morning, should cause no more than local
nuisance impacts. Total rainfall is expected to range between
1 2 to 1 inch, highest NW of nyc.

Tides coastal flooding
Storm surge guidance for this mornings high tide may to be on
the low side given the strength of southerly winds expected
ahead of a cold front this morning. But typically, S SW winds
are not conducive to building surge. However, there is a low
probability of a surge of 1-2 ft. If these surge levels
develop, minor coastal impacts in a strong SW W flow would be
felt mainly across eastern portions of the great south bay into
moriches bay. Elsewhere any impacts would be brief and
localized. Statement issued to address this potential.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... High wind warning until noon est today for ctz011-012.

Wind advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for ctz005-006.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for ctz007>010.

Ny... High wind warning until noon est today for nyz078>081.

Wind advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for nyz067>070.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for nyz071>075-
176>179.

Nj... Wind advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for njz002-004-103>108.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for njz006.

Marine... Storm warning until noon est today for anz330-340-345-350-353.

Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz335-338-355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi50 min SW 21 G 27 57°F 46°F54°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 28 mi35 min SSW 21 G 29 60°F 4 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi60 min SSW 27 G 35 61°F 58°F13 ft993.8 hPa (-3.1)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi65 min S 14 G 18 58°F 1 ft53°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY6 mi54 minSSW 16 G 269.00 miLight Rain60°F57°F90%994.1 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY10 mi57 minSSW 15 G 238.00 miOvercast61°F55°F81%994.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi54 minSSW 20 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy60°F55°F86%993.4 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3SW5SW5S11
G20
S12S11S14
G19
S13
G17
S12S11S9
G16
SW11
G20
SW8S6S11S13S13
G23
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G24
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G26
1 day agoW13
G21
NW13
G21
W13
G22
NW10
G22
NW16
G25
N13
G24
NW14
G23
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G24
NW15
G24
NW12
G19
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NW15
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NW13
G23
NW7NW8W5NW4CalmW5W3W3CalmW3Calm
2 days agoSE11SE10
G14
SE10SE8
G16
S12S14
G21
W17
G22
S5W5NW7W17
G23
W10
G17
SW10
G20
W11NW16
G23
W8W8
G17
W9W7NW14
G21
NW12
G21
W13
G19
W11
G17
W13
G23

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
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Sun -- 12:41 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:02 AM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:18 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:23 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.100.41.11.92.63.23.43.22.51.710.3-000.61.322.52.82.72.31.61

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Sun -- 12:19 AM EST     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:19 AM EST     1.65 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:52 PM EST     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:28 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:40 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:45 PM EST     1.27 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.60.31.21.61.61.30.5-0.4-1.1-1.5-1.7-1.5-1.1-0.40.51.21.31.10.6-0.2-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.