Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 4:17 AM   Moonset 5:09 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1046 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with isolated tstms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Tue - N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1046 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 050601 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 201 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in place along the New England coast tonight. A cold front slowly approaches from the west into Monday, briefly stalling to our south. Weak high pressure moves in Tuesday into Wednesday morning before a low from the west arrives on Wednesday bringing the stalled boundary to our south through as a warm front. The low exits the east Wednesday night as a new low moves into the Great Lakes. A stalled boundary between these two systems lingers over the area Thursday with the low moving into New England and lingering through through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Areas of light rain continue to move through parts of the local Tri-State late tonight, mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT, though a lull in this activity should develop for a period later this morning before rain coverage expands toward the afternoon. Forecast remains on track.

High pressure across the Canadian Maritimes will maintain a persistent onshore flow through the weekend, and lead to cooler than typical temperatures for early May.

A weak area of low pressure will pass well to the northwest through the Upper Great Lakes, sending a slow approaching frontal boundary toward the region tonight. A few light/brief showers will be possible for areas well west of NYC this evening. Otherwise it should be dry with thickening mid level clouds into this evening as the ridge axis shifts offshore, allowing deeper moisture to advect into the area in the SW flow. Chances for showers will then increase overnight expanding eastward across the area.

With the return flow and cloud cover, temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
As the front continues to make progress eastward, plenty of deep moisture in the column and weak lift should instigate shower activity by the mid morning, at least for the western half of the region, before spreading east by the afternoon. Showers may continue intermittently into Sunday night before tapering west to east. QPF appears light with this activity, generally ranging from a quarter to a half inch. Skies will be overcast for much of the day tomorrow which will support cooler temperature in the mid to upper 50s across the region and upper 40s to low 50s across the region Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front on Monday will lead to any lingering showers from overnight clearing in the morning north to south, in the direction of the front, with the front expected to fully push through by later in the day on Monday. Slight chances still could linger in southern and western zones into the day, closer to the frontal boundary, which ends up stalling to our south.

Upper-level ridging sets up on Monday into Tuesday in tandem with surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, then over the northeast on Tuesday. This will lead to warmer temperatures around 5- 10 degrees above average and keep things mostly dry, though a slight chance for afternoon showers is still a possibility in western zones.

The ridge will flatten on Wednesday helping direct a developing surface low over the Great Lakes on Tuesday night into our area on Wednesday. Associated with this low will also be a mid-level shortwave bringing in some increasing mid-level energy. This low will lead to the stalled frontal boundary to our south to advance through as a warm front on Wednesday with increasing PWATs of 1.25- 1.35". Given these factors, scattered showers are expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also occur with the latest model guidance hinting at decent amounts of available instability, particularly in western areas where daytime surface heating will most impactful.

This low will push east Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a strong surface low develops over the Great Lakes. A stalled front will develop between the exiting low to the east and the approaching low from the west Wednesday night. Moisture looks to drop around this time frame, so POPs may drop Wednesday night because of brief high pressure nosing in from the north. The stalled front will eventually attempt to slowly advance through on Thursday as a warm front as the low to the west gets closer, returning a stronger onshore flow. This will also advect higher PWATs of 1.35-1.45" into the area, increasing POPs again. The increased onshore flow will lead to warm air advection at 850mb with model guidance also hinting at locally stronger FGEN at 850 mb. CAPE appears lower than Wednesday, but with more forcing in place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms could occur through the area Thursday afternoon and evening.

Friday into Saturday low pressure will linger across New England which could lead to occasional showers as an upper-level trough deepens over the area from the west.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure weakens today as a frontal system slowly approaches to the west.

Cigs lowering to IFR in the next few hours, likely remaining IFR through the TAF period. Aside from a shower or two possible before 07-08z, showers become more likely this afternoon, then remaining likely well into tonight.

ESE-SE winds around 10kt or less through this evening, shifting more southerly late tonight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of IFR onset may be off by an hour or two. Chance that MVFR cigs develop for a few hours this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: IFR with showers ending.

Monday: IFR to MVFR in the morning, then MVFR, becoming VFR in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers, an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR late at night.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR with showers likely, isolated thunderstorms possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions can be expected through the weekend with high pressure along the New England coast maintaining an easterly or southeasterly flow across the waters and speeds generally at or under 10 kt.

Winds and seas are expected to stay below SCA conditions through Friday.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides will increase with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night along with the threat of minor coastal flooding each night through this period and possibly including Wednesday night as well.

Coastal flood statements may be needed for coastal Fairfield, southern Westchester, and southern Nassau counties Sunday night. Advisories may eventually be needed for these zones and Southern Queens Monday night, and even more so for Tuesday night. Statements may be needed during this period for other parts along western LI Sound as well as lower NY Harbor.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:59 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:29 AM EDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:48 AM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:04 PM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:19 PM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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