Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mastic Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:35PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 2:18 PM EST (19:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:24PMMoonset 11:35PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1027 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow and sleet in the morning, then rain, snow and sleet in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 1027 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds into the area waters today, then moves to to the north on Thursday. Another storm system approaches from the south impacting the waters late Thursday night into Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mastic Beach, NY
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location: 40.75, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 141810
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
issued by national weather service taunton ma
110 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight, before
retreating into new england Thursday. An area of low pressure
will develop over the tennessee valley Thursday, with a second
area of low pressure moving up the east coast Thursday night.

The low will likely pass just east of montauk early Friday,
then into the canadian maritimes Friday night. A broad area of
high pressure builds in for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
High pressure continues its track east toward the region. Mostly
clear skies persist this afternoon and evening with
gusty northwest winds, gusting to 20-30 kts. Winds relax this
evening tonight as the pressure gradient decreases. Temperatures
around the region curretnly sit in the upper 30s-low 40s and
aren't expected to increase much more.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
High shifts towards new england tonight with a continuation of
dry weather. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably cold
with low temperatures tonight in the teens across the northern
suburbs and the pine barrens and low to mid 20s elsewhere. A
freeze warning is in effect for the remaining boroughs where the
growing season has not yet ended. A strengthening low pressure
then rapidly moves northeast up the coast on Thursday with
precipitation developing across the area. A wintry mix is
expected initially, with probably a change over to rain along
the coast around sunset. Temperatures on Thursday will be in the
low 30s inland and mid to upper 30s to near 40 along the coast.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Overall timing of the storm is a bit faster than 24 hours ago, with
good clustering of the low INVOF long island at 12z fri. The low is
then over the gulf of me by 18z.

The increased speed puts Thu eve under the gun for the worst of the
wintry pcpn. Mainly snow or a snow sleet mix can be expected across
the interior during this time, with the coasts transitioning to
rain. By late in the eve overnight, a transition to fzra should
occur over the interior and much of the remaining area will go to
all rain. Ice accretion has been ramped up significantly in the
fcst, to around a quarter inch in the hudson valley where the
predominant ely flow will likely remain backed further to the n.

For snow, a solid burst of mdt to hvy snow appears likely with the
initial surge of waa. Advy lvl snow has been included in the fcst
away from the coasts.

Wind will increase Thu ngt as the gradient tightens ahead of the
low. Strongest flow along the coasts, particularly ERN long island
aft the development and passage of a cstl front. 40 mph gusts
possible in this zone. As the low makes its closes approach possibly
over li, winds across the region would then weaken, before ramping
up again as the low pulls away. Winds on the back side could
approach 50 mph, again mainly ERN coasts, if the more intense nam
verifies.

The pcpn winds down fri, then fair wx is fcst thru sat. Low chcs for
pcpn on Sun thru Mon with a frontal sys potentially impacting the
area. There remain some significant timing and track differences
between the GFS and ecmwf, so a blended approach was used for the
fcst. The model consensus was for dry wx on tue.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight, before
retreating into new england Thursday. Low pressure approaches the
region Thursday night and heads to the maritimes Friday.

Vfr through Thursday morning. NW winds gusting to 20-25 kt subside
21z-23z, then veer to N and NE overnight. Conditions lower to MVFR
as light snow overspreads the region 18z-20z Thursday, then to ifr
or perhaps lifr in a burst of heavier snow 20z-22z. Winds become
e NE 10-15 kt with some gusts to 20-25 kt along coast late in the
day.

Expect quick change to rain across nyc, long island, and southern ct
terminals 22z Thu to 00z fri, then across the lower hudson valley
terminals between 00z and 02z Friday. Rain continues Thursday night
with NE winds 15-25 kt and gusts of 20-30 kt, mainly near coast,
becoming N overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi63 min NNW 18 G 21 38°F 47°F22°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 28 mi175 min NNW 19 G 25 38°F 56°F4 ft
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi36 min NNW 8 G 14 38°F 55°F1029 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi30 min N 20 G 24 35°F 56°F1029.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi28 min WNW 23 G 29 38°F 56°F6 ft1028.1 hPa (+0.8)23°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi28 min NW 19 G 23 40°F 56°F5 ft1029 hPa (+0.6)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi48 min NW 16 G 23 38°F 2 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi30 min 51°F1028.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY6 mi22 minNNW 15 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds37°F16°F42%1029.2 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY10 mi25 minNW 16 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds38°F15°F39%1029.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi82 minN 14 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F19°F45%1028.6 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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1 day agoSW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE43CalmS7SE5SE8SE6SE8SE7SE7S8W10NW15
G20
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2 days agoW11
G17
NW8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW7S86SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:51 AM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:33 AM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:45 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.321.410.80.70.91.21.72.22.52.72.72.41.81.30.80.60.50.71.11.51.92.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:36 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:45 AM EST     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:25 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:50 AM EST     1.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:23 PM EST     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:33 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:27 PM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.4-0.3-0.7-1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.411.110.70-0.6-1-1.2-1.2-1-0.7-0.20.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.