Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bellport, NY
May 12, 2024 8:40 AM EDT (12:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 9:08 AM Moonset 12:20 AM |
ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 759 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers, mainly this morning.
Tonight - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 759 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal system approaches this morning and passes south and east of the area later today. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday. High pressure moves offshore Tuesday with low pressure approaching from the west. An area of low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday and then southeast of the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 121149 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 749 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal system approaches this morning and passes south and east of the area later today. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday. High pressure moves offshore Tuesday with low pressure approaching from the west. An area of low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday and then southeast of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Weak high pressure then follows going into Friday before another low approaches for the start of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
The forecast remains on track. No changes were made with this update. The arrival of a line of rain remains on time and should pick up in areas west and south of the NYC metro soon.
A weak frontal system is approaching the area this morning with a midlevel shortwave and passing through late morning into early afternoon. Light showers have already developed along an occluded front in western portions of the CWA and will weaken before dissipating as they track east. Areas around the NYC metro and west and south of the NYC metro could see totals around or just below 0.25" with amounts quickly tapering east and north of the NYC metro.
Even though lift along the occluded front will be weak, we will still see increased moisture and positive vorticity advection associated with the midlevel shortwave. The east end and east CT may see no rain at all today.
The atmosphere will be mostly stable, so no thunderstorms are expected, however, a few isolated showers are possible in S CT and LI this afternoon, based on the latest CAMs. High pressure tries to build in the wake of the weakened exiting low this afternoon, so subsidence will really be working against the development of these afternoon showers, but may be aided by lingering midlevel moisture and energy associated with the exiting shortwave.
A fairly deep shortwave trough passing over today will limit highs to the mid-50s, which is about 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Heights will rise Sunday night as the upper trough continues departing to the east. Surface high pressure will be in place leading to mostly dry conditions. Clouds should slowly diminish through the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies by early Monday morning. Another chilly night is expected with lows in the 40s.
A ridge will continue to build on Monday leading to noticeably warmer weather compared to Sunday with highs in the low/mid-60s to the east with onshore flow and western inland areas in the upper-60s to low-70s. A warm front will also be skirting the area to the north, extending from a low in Canada. This warm front could lead to a few showers that dissipate as they track north to south. Confidence in the showers occurring, though, is low due to the riding aloft and surface high pressure working against them. PWATs around 1-1.2" will be in place, though.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
From the analysis of some large scale deterministic weather prediction forecast models, the following features are noted.
In the mid levels, the local area appears to be in between a trough and a ridge. The trough is over SE Canada and the ridge is southeast of the area, based in the Atlantic. The ridge moves farther east Tuesday night into Wednesday with a trough moving in. The center of the trough moves across either Wednesday night or Thursday. There are model differences resolving this feature.
For Thursday night through Friday night, the local area is shown to be in between troughs in the mid levels, with some brief ridging.
Next trough moves in for the start of next weekend.
At the surface, a warm front moves farther north of the area Tuesday with low pressure developing along a cold front to the west. There are multiple areas of low pressure developing along this front.
Eventually, there is one main low that is forecast to move south of Long Island Wednesday and then farther out into the Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. There are model differences in their depiction of the low and its translational speed.
Chances for rain showers increase Tuesday, with rain showers expected to be widespread across the area by Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. Chances for rain showers remain for Wednesday night with a slight chance of rain showers Thursday. Rain could be moderate to possibly heavy at times Tuesday night into Wednesday. With colder air aloft and some elevated instability potentially, there could be a few embedded thunderstorms. Just left the thunderstorms as slight chance in terms of their probability.
By Thursday night and Friday, high pressure starts to build in from the north and east, which will maintain mainly dry conditions through much of Friday night.
The next low provides the next chances for rain starting out next weekend.
Temperatures in the daytime look to average above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday, close to normal Thursday and Friday, and below normal again next Saturday.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weakening frontal system moves in today. Weak high pressure returns later today and lasts through the rest of the TAF period.
Some rain showers are expected with this frontal system with higher chances for NYC terminals, KHPN and KSWF and lesser chances for KISP and KBDR as well as KGON. Highest chances for rain occur before 14Z this morning. Chances for additional rain showers still present late this morning into this afternoon but confidence lower on these so difficult to narrow down time and location of these in TAFs. No mention of showers for KGON as for that terminal, probabilities for showers are too low.
Conditions will be mainly MVFR this morning and then gradually improve to VFR this afternoon, especially for the latter half.
VFR then remains tonight into early Monday.
There will likely be some MVFR continuing this afternoon but overall mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through tonight.
Wind speeds at or less than 10 kt expected during the TAF period. Wind direction overall southerly on average becoming more SW late tonight into early Monday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR timing could vary from TAF by a few hours. Some fluctuation between VFR and MVFR possible.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S winds gusts near 15-20kt coastal terminals.
Tuesday night: MVFR or lower likely in showers. S wind gusts near 15kt coastal terminals.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower still likely in showers and possible t-storms. SE wind gusts 15-20kt, becoming NE late day and at night.
Wednesday night: Chance of showers and MVFR. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds are expected to remain below SCA conditions for the entirety of Sunday. Monday evening/early night may briefly reach 5 feet before dropping back down to 4 feet.
Long term marine from Tuesday through Thursday night, initially below SCA conditions expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, SCA conditions become probable Wednesday into Wednesday night which could very well linger into Thursday, especially on the ocean.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
No coastal flooding is anticipated as astronomical tide levels continue subsiding into early next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 749 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal system approaches this morning and passes south and east of the area later today. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday. High pressure moves offshore Tuesday with low pressure approaching from the west. An area of low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday and then southeast of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Weak high pressure then follows going into Friday before another low approaches for the start of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
The forecast remains on track. No changes were made with this update. The arrival of a line of rain remains on time and should pick up in areas west and south of the NYC metro soon.
A weak frontal system is approaching the area this morning with a midlevel shortwave and passing through late morning into early afternoon. Light showers have already developed along an occluded front in western portions of the CWA and will weaken before dissipating as they track east. Areas around the NYC metro and west and south of the NYC metro could see totals around or just below 0.25" with amounts quickly tapering east and north of the NYC metro.
Even though lift along the occluded front will be weak, we will still see increased moisture and positive vorticity advection associated with the midlevel shortwave. The east end and east CT may see no rain at all today.
The atmosphere will be mostly stable, so no thunderstorms are expected, however, a few isolated showers are possible in S CT and LI this afternoon, based on the latest CAMs. High pressure tries to build in the wake of the weakened exiting low this afternoon, so subsidence will really be working against the development of these afternoon showers, but may be aided by lingering midlevel moisture and energy associated with the exiting shortwave.
A fairly deep shortwave trough passing over today will limit highs to the mid-50s, which is about 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Heights will rise Sunday night as the upper trough continues departing to the east. Surface high pressure will be in place leading to mostly dry conditions. Clouds should slowly diminish through the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies by early Monday morning. Another chilly night is expected with lows in the 40s.
A ridge will continue to build on Monday leading to noticeably warmer weather compared to Sunday with highs in the low/mid-60s to the east with onshore flow and western inland areas in the upper-60s to low-70s. A warm front will also be skirting the area to the north, extending from a low in Canada. This warm front could lead to a few showers that dissipate as they track north to south. Confidence in the showers occurring, though, is low due to the riding aloft and surface high pressure working against them. PWATs around 1-1.2" will be in place, though.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
From the analysis of some large scale deterministic weather prediction forecast models, the following features are noted.
In the mid levels, the local area appears to be in between a trough and a ridge. The trough is over SE Canada and the ridge is southeast of the area, based in the Atlantic. The ridge moves farther east Tuesday night into Wednesday with a trough moving in. The center of the trough moves across either Wednesday night or Thursday. There are model differences resolving this feature.
For Thursday night through Friday night, the local area is shown to be in between troughs in the mid levels, with some brief ridging.
Next trough moves in for the start of next weekend.
At the surface, a warm front moves farther north of the area Tuesday with low pressure developing along a cold front to the west. There are multiple areas of low pressure developing along this front.
Eventually, there is one main low that is forecast to move south of Long Island Wednesday and then farther out into the Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. There are model differences in their depiction of the low and its translational speed.
Chances for rain showers increase Tuesday, with rain showers expected to be widespread across the area by Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. Chances for rain showers remain for Wednesday night with a slight chance of rain showers Thursday. Rain could be moderate to possibly heavy at times Tuesday night into Wednesday. With colder air aloft and some elevated instability potentially, there could be a few embedded thunderstorms. Just left the thunderstorms as slight chance in terms of their probability.
By Thursday night and Friday, high pressure starts to build in from the north and east, which will maintain mainly dry conditions through much of Friday night.
The next low provides the next chances for rain starting out next weekend.
Temperatures in the daytime look to average above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday, close to normal Thursday and Friday, and below normal again next Saturday.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weakening frontal system moves in today. Weak high pressure returns later today and lasts through the rest of the TAF period.
Some rain showers are expected with this frontal system with higher chances for NYC terminals, KHPN and KSWF and lesser chances for KISP and KBDR as well as KGON. Highest chances for rain occur before 14Z this morning. Chances for additional rain showers still present late this morning into this afternoon but confidence lower on these so difficult to narrow down time and location of these in TAFs. No mention of showers for KGON as for that terminal, probabilities for showers are too low.
Conditions will be mainly MVFR this morning and then gradually improve to VFR this afternoon, especially for the latter half.
VFR then remains tonight into early Monday.
There will likely be some MVFR continuing this afternoon but overall mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through tonight.
Wind speeds at or less than 10 kt expected during the TAF period. Wind direction overall southerly on average becoming more SW late tonight into early Monday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR timing could vary from TAF by a few hours. Some fluctuation between VFR and MVFR possible.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S winds gusts near 15-20kt coastal terminals.
Tuesday night: MVFR or lower likely in showers. S wind gusts near 15kt coastal terminals.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower still likely in showers and possible t-storms. SE wind gusts 15-20kt, becoming NE late day and at night.
Wednesday night: Chance of showers and MVFR. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds are expected to remain below SCA conditions for the entirety of Sunday. Monday evening/early night may briefly reach 5 feet before dropping back down to 4 feet.
Long term marine from Tuesday through Thursday night, initially below SCA conditions expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, SCA conditions become probable Wednesday into Wednesday night which could very well linger into Thursday, especially on the ocean.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
No coastal flooding is anticipated as astronomical tide levels continue subsiding into early next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 32 mi | 83 min | SSW 5.1G | 49°F | 29.85 | |||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 36 mi | 71 min | SSE 5.8G | 48°F | 51°F | 29.91 | 42°F | |
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 37 mi | 83 min | SSW 8G | 50°F | 56°F | 29.90 | ||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 43 mi | 71 min | SSE 5.8 | 49°F | 29.87 | 44°F | ||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 44 mi | 83 min | SSE 7G | 49°F | 29.89 | |||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 49 mi | 71 min | S 7.8G | 50°F | 54°F | 29.89 | 44°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY | 6 sm | 44 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 50°F | 41°F | 71% | 29.90 | |
| KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY | 10 sm | 44 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 48°F | 41°F | 76% | 29.90 | |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 17 sm | 47 min | SSW 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 50°F | 43°F | 76% | 29.92 |
Tide / Current for Bellport, Bellport Bay, Long Island, New York
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Bellport
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:20 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 03:10 AM EDT 0.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:07 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EDT 0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT 0.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:12 PM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:20 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 03:10 AM EDT 0.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:07 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EDT 0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT 0.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:12 PM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bellport, Bellport Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Sayville (Brown Creek)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:20 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT 0.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 09:49 AM EDT 0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:51 PM EDT 0.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:42 PM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:20 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT 0.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 09:49 AM EDT 0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:51 PM EDT 0.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:42 PM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sayville (Brown Creek), Long Island, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Upton, NY,
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