Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:44 AM   Moonset 1:54 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 434 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night - .
Rest of this afternoon - SE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night. Tue - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 434 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through Saturday night before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and Sunday night.

FXUS61 KCTP 031813 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 213 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin this afternoon mainly in western PA as clouds increase -Noticeable cool down over the weekend with overcast skies and periods of rain -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The early afternoon hours will remain partly cloudy before increasing cloud cover into the early evening. High pressure channeling down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians will maintain dry wx over the majority of the CWA (eastern 2/3)
through 00Z Sat with max POPs to the west of the US219 corridor.
This area should be in the warm sector where the most unstable air will reside. A couple of locally heavy t-storm downpours could produce spot amounts >1" on the west aspect of the Allegheny Plateau near the edge of higher pwat air surging in from the upper OH Valley. The WPC D1 ERO covers this area, with the greatest threat just outside of our CWA (over PBZ) based on the latest 03/12Z HRRR guidance. The 24hr maxTchange will be considerably cooler over the central and southeastern ridge/valley region this afternoon with fcst highs giving back 7-15 degrees from yesterdays record challenging to record breaking temps.

Shower activity should eventually expand west to east through tonight with a surface boundary stalling out over far western PA. An increasingly moist east/southeast flow brings widespread low clouds and perhaps some fog/mist on the ridgetops. The potential for not severe t-storms remains low given the lack of instability and the increasing low level stable air with the CAD setup. Low temps will be above early May climo and range between 45-55F from the southwestern Poconos/Coal Region to Warren County.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Hires models show CAD pattern firmly entrenched over CPA on Saturday, and therefore we continued to trim max temps vs. NBM.
The current thinking is most areas will remain in the mid to low 50s given the easterly flow. No risk of thunder on Saturday so removed from wx grids and changed character of precip to rain from showers.

No major changes to the Sunday fcst were made other than increasing rain PoPs through early Sunday morning. Rain/showers continue through Sunday and into Sunday night with highs recovering 5-10F over the southwest 1/2 of the CWA Some isolated convection is possible in this area Sunday PM as the warm sector shifts to the east. Despite the relatively high moisture availability, limited rain rates should keep blended mean QPF btwn 0.50-1.00 inches ending 00Z Monday. Fcst lows Sunday night will be +10-15F above climo for early May in the 50-60F range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The long term period will be dominated by WSW flow aloft. Sfc boundaries linger overhead/nearby the state for the entire period. Several successive shots of shortwaves should slide overhead, likely the remnants of a very active/stormy time over the central plains. Thankfully, the expected severe weather in the middle of the country is not expected to extend this far to the east on most (if any of the) days. However, we do get the forcing provided by the repeated MCSs. These things are highly difficult to track and anticipate the timing of arrival, too, 4-7 days out. The ECMWF does push the boundary south of PA enough for Tues to be dry
But
the GFS and importantly, the blend of models, never let go of 30-80 PoPs. Gulf moisture really never gets totally cut off from reaching the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic States, but does diminish somewhere in the vicinity of PA. Thus, there is high confidence of a wet period during the entire long term, esp for srn PA, but extremely low confidence in timing of each successive wave. PoPs >30pct will remain for each 12hr period, as there is no model or conceptual consensus to dip that low. They also won't go above 80 pct for much the same reason.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Heating popping a few taller cu from N of IPT to UNV to JST. So, much of the area should be VFR for the next 6-12 hrs. None of these have more than the faintest of returns on radar at 18Z. A strong shortwave/area of positive forcing is approaching from the west and is carrying a broach patch of SHRA but no TS just yet. Outflow boundary moving toward BFD from the NW and earlier convection has dropped the temps and turned the wind to the N/NW over NErn PA (ERI/GKJ) already. Only small cu are seen along the boundary as it moves southeastward early this aftn.
The heating of the day should provide just enough kick to help storms occur in wrn PA (perhaps even into JST and BFD before 21Z). The stability in the lowest 5kft overhead should keep storms from moving too deep/far eastward into the central mtns (UNV/AOO). We have fairly high confidence in a no TS fcst for IPT/MDT/LNS at this point. Still, the SHRA do progress eastward all night, and may make it into those terminals by 12Z. Have only mentioned VCTS for BFD and JST at this point with low (30pct) confidence that they will have a TSRA for long enough to justify a categorical period with TS occurring as the prevailing wx type.

Low clouds and some fog will develop in many places overnight due to increasingly humid air and a near-constant SErly llvl wind. LIFR looks probable (80%) at JST and IFR probably (80%) at BFD, AOO, UNV beginning in the middle to latter period of the night. Will hold off on mentioning any IFR cigs/vsby at the eastern terminals for now.

Sat looks unsettled, too. Widespread light SHRA are expected for the srn terminals for all of Sat, and the IFR may linger for the SWrn terminals and may creep into MDT/LNS, too. BFD may actually be the best location for flying into/out from on Sat when compared to the other central PA terminals.

Outlook...

Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA.

Mon-Wed...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:55 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:22 PM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Charlestown
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:12 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:30 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:26 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charlestown, Northeast River, Maryland, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

State College, PA,