Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trevorton, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:27PM Monday March 27, 2017 8:24 PM EDT (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 731 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers...mainly after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms...then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 731 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will push north of the mid atlantic this evening. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front, and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trevorton, PA
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location: 40.75, -76.74     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 272355
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
755 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will move along or just south of the
mason-dixon line late tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will
build down out of southern canada and bring cooler and drier
weather for Wednesday and Thursday.

A new storm system will approach for the end of this week with
the potential for more inclement weather.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
Early evening goes-16 visible loop shows the last vestiges of
stratus have been scoured out of the susq valley as the surface
warm front lifts north of the region. Partly to mostly sunny
skies in the warm sector have push temperatures into the 60s
over most of the area at 21z, with low 70s noted over the
south central valleys.

Clouds will return with a renewed chance of showers once again
tonight, as the next wave of low pressure moves into ohio. Near
term models suggest an arrival time of around midnight across
the southwest counties and after midnight elsewhere. Lows will
be very mild in the 40s to lower 50s.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday/
Latest nam/gfs show the surface wave taking a track over or just
south of the pa-md border during the day Tuesday bringing
occasional showers that will taper off from NW to SE during the
afternoon. The guidance once again shows the development of
some instability over southern areas so a thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out. It will likely be subject more to the amount of
sunshine that can develop than dynamic forcing.

It will be another mild day in the 60s in most locations.

Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/
The long term period will start with a frontal system and
associated precipitation exiting the region and heights building
aloft. Building high pressure will push the warm moist air off
to our south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday should be
a relatively nice day (though with some mdt northerly wind gusts
at times, as high pressure builds in from the northwest. The
dry air and high pressure are in all of the most recent
guidance, implying Wednesday and Thursday should be relatively
nice days.

High pressure, dry air, and normal to slightly below normal 850
hpa and 925 hpa temperatures imply near normal daytime highs.

Most of the 26/00-06z u.S. And int'l model guidance (and efs)
indicates more of southern... Shearing storm track for late in
the week... Thanks to a stronger and more wwd position of a deep
nrn stream vortex across the canadian maritimes.

The trend of the big model discrepancy for late this week and
this weekend (between the GFS and ec over the past several days)
has trended toward the GFS and its ens members with southern
stream energy and its moisture being prevented from amplifying
with an associated storm track to our west.

Rather, what we see is a shift of the primary southern stream
sfc low track to our south as the potent midweek southern stream
sfc/upper low (that will be trying to take the turn northeast
across the mid miss valley twd the great lakes) encounters great
resistance from the notably stronger wnw upper jet core
defining the northern stream that will be situated from the
upper glakes to the mid atl coast.

With this type of consensus storm track, pops will be somewhat
less for Friday and Saturday (compared to a heavily weighted
ec/ecens solution) and limited to mainly the southern half of pa
where some rain (or even an elevation-dependent rain/wet snow
mix) with expansive cooler and drier air north of pa.

Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/
Vfr conditions this evening will deteriorate with lowering
ceilings and dropping visibilities as lower atmosphere moistens
rather rapidly tonight on light southeast flow. Approaching
system will bring showers into most areas overnight, with damp
rain/shower activity lasting through Tuesday. This will bring
significant restrictions to flying conditions, with widespread
MVFR to ifr expected.

Cooler, drier air filters in behind the system late Tuesday
night into Wednesday with a slow improvement in conditions.

Vfr conditions Thursday, before a large rain-making system
affects the area Thursday night through Saturday.

Outlook...

tue... Ifr/MVFR across the region in showers/light rain.

Wed... Morning restrictions, gradually improving toVFR most
areas.

Thu...VFR/no sig wx.

Thurs night-sat... Sub-vfr restrictions/rain likely.

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte
near term... Fitzgerald/la corte
short term... La corte
long term... Lambert/gartner
aviation... Jung/la corte


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 96 mi55 min 57°F 1013.8 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 98 mi55 min Calm G 1 59°F 46°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selinsgrove Penn Valley Airport, PA8 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair54°F48°F83%1013.8 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA23 mi27 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F50°F100%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from SEG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE5E4SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmSE5S4CalmS3SW4S4445S8SE8SE5SE7SE6S4Calm
1 day agoN7NE9NE5NE5NE7NE3CalmSE6E6E7SE4E3E3SE11SE9SE6SE8SE8SE7SE7SE8E6SE6E5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmN16
G21
N15NE8N4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:57 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 11:19 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.91.51.10.70.40.30.51.11.92.42.52.421.510.50.2-00.10.61.32.12.4

Tide / Current Tables for Charlestown, Northeast River, Maryland
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Charlestown
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:50 AM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 11:20 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.410.50.20.10.30.61.21.722.11.91.610.50.1-0.1-0.10.20.71.31.82

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.