Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trevorton, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:47PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 2:33 AM EST (07:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1237 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Overnight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A slight chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow or sleet. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming w. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely through the day.
ANZ500 1237 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong low pressure system will impact the region late tonight through Wednesday night. Low pressure will then push off to the north and east on Thursday as a frontal boundary passes through the waters. High pressure will build to the north through week's end. Small craft conditions will be possible on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trevorton, PA
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location: 40.75, -76.74     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 200419
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1119 pm est Tue feb 19 2019

Synopsis
A winter storm will bring significant snow and ice to central
pennsylvania on Wednesday. Dry and windy weather is forecast
Thursday, with fair weather continuing into Friday. The next
weather system will return precipitation to the area over the
weekend.

Near term until 8 am Wednesday morning
Look at newest NAM and href info gives a little more concern for
a possible move upward in snowfall and zr totals, ESP in the
sw. NAM liquid between 15 and 18z is >0.60" but that is right
around the time the transition to sleet should be occurring
there. Also, the 0.30" mean QPF in the 00z-03z time frame is
concerning, since much of that could be zr. Will hold on any
changes for the time being and allow next shift to get more of
the 00z runs in and confab with the neighbors before making
moves.

Prev...

high clouds thickening up. Precip still 300mi to the south. But,
it is on track. Nudged the snow numbers before 12z up just a
little, as all models very wet and 1" hr rates are possible
across the laurels just before sunrise. Left the rest of the
periods alone, but latest href progs have things staying snow
just an hour or two longer, and that could mean another 1 2" to
2" over what we have going in the SRN tier before the sleet
comes along to compact it.

Prev...

a sprawling area of high pressure (1038 mb) was centered over
southern new york and stretched westward to wisconsin this
morning, with varying amounts of thin cirrus streaming NE across
the commonwealth. High clouds will thicken-up from the
southwest through early tonight.

1930z temperatures are within a deg f or two of their
forecast maxes ranging from the mid 20s across the north to the
mid 30s in the lower susq valley. The lack of wind under the
dome of high pressure made it feel a bit warmer in the sun
today, compared to Monday that featured a brisk wind.

Clouds will gradually lower and thicken tonight as high
pressure retreats into new england. A strong llvl cold air
damming signature will develop east of the alleghenies south of
the high center. Hires models and ensembles spread WAA front-
end snow into the laurel highlands and south central mtns by
daybreak Wednesday with slippery travel for the am commute.

The leading northern edge of the snow shield will be near the rt
22 322 corridor in south-central pa around 12z Wednesday.

Short term 8 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
*snow and icy mix will result in travel disruptions Wednesday
into Wednesday night
the cad pattern will set the stage for significant snow and ice
event for south-central pa on Wednesday. Strong low-level
theta-e advection of rich gomex moisture and favorable mid to
upper level dynamics will support a broad area of wintry precip
overspreading the area Wednesday morning.

Across the southern half of pennsylvania, any light snow within
an hour of the onset (between 11z-14z wed) should transition to
a 3-5 hour period of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates
of 1 to 2 inches per hour, thanks to strong upper divergence
and low-mid level fgen. This area of high prob grtn 1 inch per
hour lingers the longest across the south-central mtns and lower
susq valley, before shifting east of our SE CWA during the mid
to late afternoon hours.

Somewhat similar to the nov 15th, 2018 winter storm, this
upcoming one features hefty amounts of moisture, and MAX wet
bulb temps only creeping a deg or 2 c above zero in an approx 2
kft thick layer (up around 7-9 kft agl) for the early and mid
afternoon. Strong uvvel may cool this slightly above freezing
layer (or it may be only deep enough to make the snowflakes
sticky) and delay the changeover to sleet during peak intensity.

This creates a potential error in snow amounts of 2-3 inches on
the low side should the changeover not occur until late
afternoon across central pa and the susq valley.

The lower probability of a quicker changeover could trim
current snow totals by an inch or so.

Hires model data and nbm maxtw aloft indicate that snow will
transition to an icy mix of sleet and freezing rain during the
afternoon evening before ending (possibly as freezing drizzle)
late Wednesday night as the thicker mid high seeder-feeder cloud
deck peels off to the east.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Any lingering precipitation should end Thursday morning as
increasing westerly flow directs drier air into the area. There
remains a slight probability for lingering showers early
Thursday though any amounts will be light. Colder air drops back
down into the region and high pressure builds in for Thursday
night.

The regional temperatures will be around normal through the
latter half of the week. Dry wx continues on Friday before the
next plains- great lakes storm system spreads precipitation back
into the area over the weekend. The models have a similar track
and consensus, especially given the strong high pressure out
ahead of it. The storm track pattern looks somewhat similar to
the midweek event, but with stronger primary low and weaker sfc
high cad. This would favor fzra or plain rain but will wait and
see how the ptype details evolve in the coming days.

Temperatures could get quite mild and break into the 50s on
Sunday before turning breezy and cooler by early next week.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
No big changes to the late evening TAF updates.

Earlier discussion below.

For the 00z tafs, looking atVFR conditions overnight with
mid and high clds.

Snow moves in from southwest to northeast from just before
sunrise at jst, to other areas by mid to late morning.

Sleet and freezing rain becomes the problem by afternoon, as
the warm front nears. Conditions will become poor with llws
as well.

The precipitation becomes lighter Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

Outlook...

wed... Snow (ocnly heavy during the late morning and early
afternoon) changing to to a wintry mix, then mainly freezing
rain before nightfall.

Thu... Am light freezing rain low CIGS possible early.

Fri... Am low CIGS possible W mtns.

Sat... Pm rain low CIGS possible.

Sun... Showers, mild, and windy. Low conditions possible.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 6 am est
Thursday for paz004>006-037-041-042-046.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am Wednesday to 6 am est
Thursday for paz010>012-017>019-045-049>053-058.

Winter storm warning from 4 am Wednesday to 6 am est Thursday
for paz024>026-033>036.

Winter storm warning from 6 am Wednesday to 6 am est Thursday
for paz027-028-056-057-059-063>066.

Synopsis... Lambert
near term... Dangelo lambert
short term... Lambert
long term... Ceru steinbugl
aviation... Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 96 mi33 min 33°F 38°F1036.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 98 mi33 min Calm G 1 31°F 39°F1036.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selinsgrove Penn Valley Airport, PA8 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair26°F19°F75%1036.2 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA23 mi37 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds26°F16°F65%1036.5 hPa

Wind History from SEG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW9NW6NW7NW7W5W8NW7NW9
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N5W4N75Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoN6NE6N4N4N5NE3E8E53CalmS6S3S10S10S6SE6SE5SE64CalmS95S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:28 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:47 AM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:10 PM EST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:36 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.421.510.40-0.2-0.20.31.11.71.91.71.30.70.2-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.10.91.82.4

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:42 AM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:14 AM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:20 PM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.60.1-0.3-0.4-0.10.51.21.71.91.91.61.10.70.2-0.1-0.20.10.81.52.12.42.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.