Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:58 AM   Moonset 5:43 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 735 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of dense fog this morning. Isolated showers this morning, then a slight chance of tstms with isolated showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less this morning. Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Tue - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Tue night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Thu - SE winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming n. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 735 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters during the middle to late part of the week.

FXUS61 KCTP 061111 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 711 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across south central PA this afternoon. The front will come back north as a warm front late Tuesday through Tuesday night, bringing more widespread showers and storms. The most widespread rainfall will occur Wed night into Thursday, followed by scattered showers lingering for Friday and the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Widespread fog has developed across central PA overnight, with a handful of obs reporting quarter mile vsby. A dense fog advisory remains in effect through 10 AM for the lower Susq Valley north through Schuylkill County, where PennDOT RWIS obs have recorded vsby under 1000 ft on portions of Interstate 81.
Daytime heating will mix out the low level moisture and lead to dissipation of the fog by mid morning in most areas.

A weak cold front pushing eastward through the area has a few showers along it early this morning. As it moves south of Interstate 80 this afternoon, it will tap into enough moisture and instability to support more numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as the front approaches the Maryland border.
The highest chance for a few lightning strikes will be across the Laurel highlands, where MLCAPE is progged to reach 750-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, enough dry air will nudge into northern PA for a few peeks of sunshine.

Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s for much of central PA this afternoon, which will feel noticeably warmer than this past weekend.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Most model guidance shows the convective activity along the southern tier waning tonight with the loss of daytime heating, but isolated to scattered light rain showers will likely persist. Some fog is possible tonight as well, though confidence in fog is not as high as it was last night. Low temps will range form the mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in the southern tier, with the north to south gradient in moisture playing a large role in overnight cooling.

Upper level ridging over PA indicates warmer conditions are likely Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80F.
A warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley and a 500mb short wave trough will result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties. Showers and a few storms will overspread the area Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unsettled weather will continue into the extended period.
Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with ensemble mean 850mb temps of 16C suggesting max temps well into the 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms continues to be focused on Wed night into Thursday, with a deepening upstream trough and sfc low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley and across the area. The SPC highlights our area in a MRGL risk for severe weather during this time frame, on the periphery of a SLGHT-ENH risk area over the Ohio Valley.

The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support scattered diurnal convection Friday through Sunday, along with a downward trend in temperatures.

AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic Ocean will maintain stratus over Central PA tonight with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs and ridgetop fog. Improving flying conditions look likely Monday as high pressure builds into the region from the Grt Lks, causing winds to shift from southeast to north. Latest forecast soundings and ensemble prob charts support a transition to MVFR during early afternoon and potentially VFR by late in the day.
Low pressure lifting up the Ohio Valley could spread showers and reduced cigs into the southern tier of PA Monday evening.

Outlook...

Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA. Isold evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.

Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.

Thu...Rain/low cigs likely.

Fri...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly AM.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ057>059- 065-066.

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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:47 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:03 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Mon -- 02:57 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:03 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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