Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trevorton, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:24PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 8:31 PM EDT (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 1:47AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 637 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 637 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front moves south of the waters tonight. High pressure will move over the region from Thursday into Saturday...sliding offshore over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Point, VA
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location: 37.44, -76.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 232358
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
758 pm edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region later today through tonight.

Dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday under the influence
of high pressure. Low pressure over the gulf of mexico will
gradually bring a return of moisture for the upcoming weekend,
especially by Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 420 pm edt Wednesday...

the cold front continues to make progress through va and is
close to reaching the va nc border. Some convection has fired in
the southern va and NE nc this afternoon and this activity
should continue to drop southeast through the area this evening.

Keep some chance pops in NE nc from 00z - 3z, but then after
that the surface high builds in and the dew point continue to
drop so the chances for rain should diminish by midnight. Once
the high arrives should get the sky to clear and temperatures
should drop into the upper 50s north and mid 60s south.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
As of 430 pm edt Wednesday...

high pressure will be over the region from Thursday through
Friday before sliding off the coast Friday evening. This will
bring a period of dry weather. Initially expect to see some
cooler conditions with highs in the low to mid 80s on Thursday
and a little increase in temps on Friday to the mid to upper
80s. The mav guidance looks a little too warm for the two days
given the northerly flow on Thursday and the slow turn to the
southeast south on Friday. So have leaned a toward the slightly
cooler met numbers for highs. On Thursday night with the lower
dewpoints and the calm conditions should get a decent radiative
cooling night and so kept previous thinking of slightly cooler
readings in the mid to upper 50s. Guidance did trend that
direction as well, but is still a little warmer than the current
forecast.

By Friday night into Saturday, will see the southerly flow
begin to bring more moisture back to the region as the surface
high slides off the coast and the deep tropical moisture feed
that is in place from the west caribbean gets pulled farther
north. Have kept the Friday night period dry as there does not
appear to be much in the way of a lifting mechanism to interact
with the increasing moisture. But did increase the sky
cover... Mainly in the western half of the CWA and keep a much
warmer night with lows in the 60s. On Saturday did begin to
introduce some showers again mainly in the west were the
southeasterly flow will get a little orographic lift along with
the day time heating to generate some showers in the piedmont
counties. The GFS tries to spin up a small complex in ga Friday
night and lift it over the area on Saturday, but that feature
looks a little too much like some convective feedback and the
ecmwf and the NAM are not nearly as excited about the showers
so kept things more diurnally driven and with lighter amounts
for now. But did drop the highs back a few degrees from Friday
due to the extra clouds around.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 400 pm edt Wednesday...

expect diurnally driven rain chances (highest during
afternoon evening) throughout the extended period. Low pressure
develops in the northeastern gulf of mexico on Sunday and
slowly moves N NE through mid-late next week. This will allow
tropical moisture to stream northward toward the region through
at least next Wednesday.

Showers tstms start to diminish late Saturday evening but re-develop
Sunday afternoon. 23 12z GFS cmc are hinting that a more organized
area of rain will move into SE va NE nc Monday morning and last
throughout the day. However, the latest 12z ECMWF keeps this
area of rain south of the va nc border on Monday. For most of
central va (as well as the md eastern shore), expect scattered
afternoon showers tstms on memorial day. Went ahead and
introduced likely pops in the far southeastern CWA on Monday
with chance pops elsewhere. Scattered showers tstms will likely
continue for the remainder of the extended period, with perhaps
lesser coverage in the northern third of the cwa. Have
maintained chance pops for most of the CWA from tue-thu am with
some slight chc pops north.

Highs in the mid-upper 80s on Sunday low 80s in coastal areas.

Slightly cooler with highs around 80 throughout the CWA on
Monday. Temperatures warm back up to the mid 80s (low 80s in
coastal areas) on Tuesday-Wednesday. Lows in the upper 60s-
lower 70s throughout the extended period.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 800 pm edt Wednesday...

the cold front has passed through all terminals except ecg (winds
are still out of the s). Expect winds to switch to the N NE at ecg
by 03z as the front drops south through NE nc. The main line of
t-storms has moved south of ecg, but kept vcsh in the taf
through 02z due to a few lingering showers in the area. Drier
air will push south behind the front this evening through tonight.

Thus, am expectingVFR (mainly skc) conditions at all terminals
through the 00z TAF period. Fog will not be an issue tonight
with the northerly flow and drier air. Winds turn to the E by
Thursday evening, but wind speeds should remain 10 kt or less
throughout the day.

Outlook... Quiet conditions no flight restrictions Thu Fri with
high pressure in place and mostly sunny clear skies. Expect
moisture to increase for the upcoming weekend with scattered
showers t-storms possible by Sat afternoon evening. The
showers t-storms will become more numerous on Sunday-Monday with
potential flight restrictions.

Marine
As of 400 pm edt Wednesday...

no flags expected as winds remain below SCA criteria into the
weekend. A cold front pushes south of the waters tonight. Little
if any CAA noted despite a wind shift to the north then northeast
thurs. High pressure to the north shifts east allowing winds to
become east then southeast fri. Speeds below 15 kts through this
period. Seas 2-3 feet with waves 1-2 ft.

Return southerly flow increases a bit this weekend (10-15 kts).

Flow remains out of the south early next week, but will have to
watch for any system coming up from the south. Given uncertainty
attm, kept winds below SCA levels. Bumped up seas 3-4 ft for
now.

Hydrology
As of 435 am edt Wednesday...

flood warning continues for the appomattox river basin. Mattoax
looks to have crested at 24.8 ft early this morning, just below
moderate flood threshold (25 ft). The river level will slowly
drop through tonight, dropping below flood stage Wednesday
evening. Additional flood warnings continue for portions of the
chickahominy and mattaponi rivers. See flwakq or flsakq for more
details.

Climate
As of 215 am edt Wednesday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 22 is 10.22" which now
ranks as the wettest may on record. (breaking the old record
of 9.79" in 2016). (precipitation records date back to 1880).

* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 22 is 8.63" which already
ranks as 3rd wettest may on record (wettest is 10.38" in
1948). (precipitation records date back to 1906).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ess
near term... Ess
short term... Ess
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri ess
marine... Mpr
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 2 mi61 min N 2.9 82°F 1017 hPa69°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 20 mi43 min NE 8.9 G 12 78°F 74°F1016.5 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 25 mi43 min ENE 9.9 G 12 75°F 1017.5 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 27 mi31 min ENE 7.8 G 7.8 74°F 74°F1 ft1017.5 hPa (-0.0)
44072 30 mi31 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 73°F1 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 37 mi43 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 79°F 1017.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 39 mi43 min N 8.9 G 9.9 1017.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 39 mi43 min E 8 G 8
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 41 mi43 min 73°F1016.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi43 min NNE 5.1 G 7 77°F 76°F1016.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 44 mi43 min NE 5.1 G 8 71°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 44 mi43 min E 7 G 8 78°F 1016.5 hPa
CHBV2 45 mi49 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 1015.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi31 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 71°F1 ft1016 hPa (+1.5)
44064 46 mi31 min E 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 73°F1 ft1016.6 hPa (+1.7)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi43 min NNE 8.9 G 8.9

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selinsgrove Penn Valley Airport, PA8 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair69°F57°F68%1017 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA23 mi95 minNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F52°F44%1017 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW6SW6SW3SW4SW8W5W6NE5N3NW5N5NW8N4N3NE7N4
1 day agoCalmCalmE3CalmE4E3E4CalmE3CalmSE4SE4SE6S3CalmS4SW4SW6SW8S6SW6S7S4NW11
G29
2 days agoCalmCalmSW4SW5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE5NE6NE8E9E9NE8NE8E8E7SE9E8E6

Tide / Current Tables for Roane Point, York River, Virginia
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Roane Point
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Wed -- 12:15 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.71.322.52.92.82.521.30.60.20.10.30.91.62.32.832.82.41.71

Tide / Current Tables for Allmondsville, York River, Virginia
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Allmondsville
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:20 PM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.61.11.82.52.82.92.72.21.50.80.30.10.20.71.42.12.732.92.61.91.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.