Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cozad, NE
May 6, 2024 12:06 AM CDT (05:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:32 AM Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 4:32 AM Moonset 6:21 PM |
FXUS63 KGID 052341 AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 641 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening. All forms of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes. Thunderstorms may initially develop as supercells across our western zones and then become more linear and more widespread as they track east across our eastern zones likely transitioning into a QLCS with bowing line segments.
- There will be additional periodic small chances (20-30%) for showers and non-severe thunderstorms Tuesday night through Thursday night. However, most areas will see the period after Monday evening as a period of drying out with generally only isolated light rainfall events (<0.10") through the remainder of the forecast period.
- Temperatures will be fairly close to normal through the 7-day forecast period with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Tonight...
Low clouds will develop and overspread much of the area. Can not rule out a light passing rain shower or drizzle after midnight, but overall not expecting much in the way of precipitation until the main show gets going late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Therefore, lowered overnight and early morning rain chances.
Monday (Enhance Risk Severe Weather)...
The SPC Enhanced Risk of severe weather remains in place for the forecast area tomorrow from generally I-80 south with the slight risk across our northern zones. A large negatively tilted upper trough will enter the plains with a closed 500 mb low over western South Dakota. A cold front/dry line will extend south across Nebraska/Kansas with moist 60 degree dewpoints ahead of the front and drier 20 and 30 degree dewpoints behind the front.
What We Know (Highest Confidence)...
Forecast models are in good agreement that thunderstorms will eventually form along the eastward moving dry line/cold front between Noon and 3 PM west of Highway 281 and then track east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. The most likely time frame for the storms to reach Highway 281 will be between 3-5 PM, and then they will likely exit our eastern zones between 6-8 PM. Timing could shift some, so please keep up to date with the latest forecast, but this is the current forecast model consensus. Thunderstorms will initially be more discreet, but are likely to form into a line/QLCS bringing more widespread precipitation to eastern areas. The storms should be progressive enough/quickly moving that rainfall amounts for most areas should be under 1 inch, but can not rule out some localized higher amounts especially southeastern areas.
What we don't know (Lower Confidence)...
There is some question regarding how quickly the low clouds will scatter out and even if all areas can scatter out before the frontal passage. If we are slow to see late morning/early afternoon sunshine, then the severity and coverage of the storms will decrease as instability will be more limited.
Southern areas are most likely to see more sunshine and thus higher instability and greater severity threat. Another big question will center around how quickly the storms transition from discreet supercells into a line/QLCS. Larger hail and tornadoes will be more likely if the storms can remain discreet longer, but most model guidance rather quickly transition the the storms into a line across our forecast area. More discreet thunderstorms seem most likely further south into Kansas south of our forecast area where instability will also be higher.
Tuesday through Thursday...
The upper trough will just meander across the central plains through Thursday, but will be cut off from the better low level moisture after Monday. Therefore, we could still see a few light rain showers or isolated thunderstorms periodically between Tuesday night and Thursday night, but most locations will be dry and those that do see precipitation will likely only see rather minor amounts. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s to around 70.
Friday through Sunday...
We should see an upper level ridge develop across the western United States, which will be a drier pattern for us. Therefore, we have no rain in the forecast for next weekend at this time.
Temperatures should remain mild in the upper 60s to around 70 on Friday, but could warm into the mid to upper 70s by Sunday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Breezy southerly flow with increasing moisture from the south is expected to continue across the area overnight...with VFR CIGS lowering and eventually becoming IFR along with some light BR around daybreak. In addition, there could be some light drizzle around daybreak, but this should not amount to much and didn't include a mention in the TAFs
Just around midday
expect a line of storms to develop west of KEAR...and propagate eastward during the afternoon through early evening hours. In addition to some of these storms potentially being severe, expect a continuation of IFR CIGS through the day along with very strong southerly winds gusting to near 40 KTS ahead of the front. For the time being, introduced a VCTS group from roughly 06/15Z-06/22Z...with some adjustments likely necessary along with a tempo group for a couple of hours to capture the worst conditions Monday afternoon.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 641 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening. All forms of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes. Thunderstorms may initially develop as supercells across our western zones and then become more linear and more widespread as they track east across our eastern zones likely transitioning into a QLCS with bowing line segments.
- There will be additional periodic small chances (20-30%) for showers and non-severe thunderstorms Tuesday night through Thursday night. However, most areas will see the period after Monday evening as a period of drying out with generally only isolated light rainfall events (<0.10") through the remainder of the forecast period.
- Temperatures will be fairly close to normal through the 7-day forecast period with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Tonight...
Low clouds will develop and overspread much of the area. Can not rule out a light passing rain shower or drizzle after midnight, but overall not expecting much in the way of precipitation until the main show gets going late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Therefore, lowered overnight and early morning rain chances.
Monday (Enhance Risk Severe Weather)...
The SPC Enhanced Risk of severe weather remains in place for the forecast area tomorrow from generally I-80 south with the slight risk across our northern zones. A large negatively tilted upper trough will enter the plains with a closed 500 mb low over western South Dakota. A cold front/dry line will extend south across Nebraska/Kansas with moist 60 degree dewpoints ahead of the front and drier 20 and 30 degree dewpoints behind the front.
What We Know (Highest Confidence)...
Forecast models are in good agreement that thunderstorms will eventually form along the eastward moving dry line/cold front between Noon and 3 PM west of Highway 281 and then track east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. The most likely time frame for the storms to reach Highway 281 will be between 3-5 PM, and then they will likely exit our eastern zones between 6-8 PM. Timing could shift some, so please keep up to date with the latest forecast, but this is the current forecast model consensus. Thunderstorms will initially be more discreet, but are likely to form into a line/QLCS bringing more widespread precipitation to eastern areas. The storms should be progressive enough/quickly moving that rainfall amounts for most areas should be under 1 inch, but can not rule out some localized higher amounts especially southeastern areas.
What we don't know (Lower Confidence)...
There is some question regarding how quickly the low clouds will scatter out and even if all areas can scatter out before the frontal passage. If we are slow to see late morning/early afternoon sunshine, then the severity and coverage of the storms will decrease as instability will be more limited.
Southern areas are most likely to see more sunshine and thus higher instability and greater severity threat. Another big question will center around how quickly the storms transition from discreet supercells into a line/QLCS. Larger hail and tornadoes will be more likely if the storms can remain discreet longer, but most model guidance rather quickly transition the the storms into a line across our forecast area. More discreet thunderstorms seem most likely further south into Kansas south of our forecast area where instability will also be higher.
Tuesday through Thursday...
The upper trough will just meander across the central plains through Thursday, but will be cut off from the better low level moisture after Monday. Therefore, we could still see a few light rain showers or isolated thunderstorms periodically between Tuesday night and Thursday night, but most locations will be dry and those that do see precipitation will likely only see rather minor amounts. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s to around 70.
Friday through Sunday...
We should see an upper level ridge develop across the western United States, which will be a drier pattern for us. Therefore, we have no rain in the forecast for next weekend at this time.
Temperatures should remain mild in the upper 60s to around 70 on Friday, but could warm into the mid to upper 70s by Sunday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Breezy southerly flow with increasing moisture from the south is expected to continue across the area overnight...with VFR CIGS lowering and eventually becoming IFR along with some light BR around daybreak. In addition, there could be some light drizzle around daybreak, but this should not amount to much and didn't include a mention in the TAFs
Just around midday
expect a line of storms to develop west of KEAR...and propagate eastward during the afternoon through early evening hours. In addition to some of these storms potentially being severe, expect a continuation of IFR CIGS through the day along with very strong southerly winds gusting to near 40 KTS ahead of the front. For the time being, introduced a VCTS group from roughly 06/15Z-06/22Z...with some adjustments likely necessary along with a tempo group for a couple of hours to capture the worst conditions Monday afternoon.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLXN JIM KELLY FIELD,NE | 12 sm | 11 min | SE 17G23 | 10 sm | Overcast | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 29.76 |
Grand Island, NE,
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