Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 3:20 AM   Moonset 2:33 PM

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FXUS63 KLBF 031720 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1220 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Becoming windy this morning into this afternoon across southwest Nebraska.

- Showers and thunderstorms spread west to east across Nebraska this afternoon into this evening. Some storms will have potential for damaging wind and large hail mainly along and south of Highway 2. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out primarily well south of Interstate 80 heading toward the Kansas border.

- After a mostly dry weekend, windy conditions with showers and thunderstorms return Sunday night into Monday with potential for severe storms late Monday especially east of Highway 83.

- Temperatures a bit cool through the weekend, then after a brief warmup trending back below normal mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 421 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There will be some sprinkles/light showers this morning as a warm front pushes northward and eventually stalls out across northern Nebraska. Behind this front southerly winds across southwest Nebraska will howl this morning into this afternoon as diurnal heating mixes down some high momentum from a brisk low level jet. These southerly winds will also bring moisture into Nebraska ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. However the moisture is somewhat limited and meso guidance is in general agreement that this will prevent significant destabilization with mean SBCAPE values ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front generally 500 to 900 J/Kg. With strong forcing from the front this will be enough instability to support convection along/ahead of the cold front that will move across southwestern Nebraska generally from west to east late this afternoon through this evening, though the lack of significant instability will be a key limiting factor preventing a more serious convective threat today.

Ample shear will be present with 0-3km bulk shear values generally at or above 30kt creating fairly well shaped hodographs, though with little orthogonal component of deep layer shear vectors to the cold front expect initial development will evolve into a linear convective mode, perhaps with several clusters/line segments coalescing into one more dominant QLCS structure along the southern flank building toward the greater instability further south. Steep low level lapse rates and modest DCAPEs will support potential for strong gusty winds and lapse rates aloft may be able to support a threat for large hail. An isolated QLCS spin up tornado also can not be ruled out primarily further south closer to the better instability heading toward the KS border. Storms move off to the east early tonight, leaving dry but cool conditions across central and western Nebraska through the first part of the weekend.

With the warm front lingering across the region today there will be a good spread to temperatures. Highs will range from the lower 50s across northwest Nebraska to the lower 70s south of I-80. Saturday will be uniformly cool with highs generally in the lower 60s. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and in the 30s tomorrow night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

As we head into Sunday, ensemble guidance is in good agreement in moving a strong upper low into the central Rockies and becoming negatively tilted. This will drive development of a deep surface low that will move into the Dakotas and swing a strong cold front across the High Plains early next week. We will start to feel the effects of this system on Sunday as the low level wind field amplifies considerably and southerly flow creates very windy conditions through Sunday night. The cold front will then push across Nebraska on Monday with a lot of synoptic energy setting the stage for a potential severe weather outbreak Monday afternoon into Monday night, primarily across the eastern half of Nebraska. There are a lot of variables in play and small changes in timing or location will have a significant impact on where severe weather will set up. Everyone needs to keep a close eye on this system in the days ahead, especially folks east of Hwy 83.

The vertically stacked closed low will be slow to move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes region by the mid to latter portion of next week. This will keep central and western Nebraska breezy, cool, and unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Strong south winds continue this afternoon for terminals south of Highway 2. A cold front will then slide through the area this afternoon and evening, with a line of thunderstorms expected to develop along this boundary. Gusty, erratic winds and MVFR visibilities can be expected with the passage of these storms.
Additionally MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in the wake of the cold front/thunderstorms, and will persist into early tomorrow morning. Clouds will quickly clear from west to east by late tomorrow morning, with VFR expected through the end of the valid period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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