Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Patchogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:59PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:29 AM EST (12:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:15AMMoonset 11:31PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 535 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the evening. Patchy drizzle in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 535 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front slowly approaches the waters today, shifting north of the waters tonight into Tuesday morning. A cold front quickly follows for Tuesday evening. High pressure builds during the mid and late week period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Patchogue, NY
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location: 40.77, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221217
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
717 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front stalls across the area today, before shifting
northward tonight into Tuesday morning. A cold front quickly
follows for Tuesday evening. High pressure builds during the
mid and late week period. The high moves east next weekend ahead
of a cold front that likely passes sometime Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Updated to reflect current temperature and dew point trends. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, the t TD forecast is
proving to be challenging, as the warm front has moved northward
across portions of long island early this morning. Temperatures
have risen across eastern long island quickly in response. Hi-
res models suggest there could be some wavering in the placement
of the front, and as such there is potential for temperatures
to go up and down across portions of the forecast area in the
wavering flow. Trends will be monitored closely.

Weak isentropic lift ahead of the approaching warm front has
led to the development of some light rain and patchy drizzle
across the area this morning. Model forecasts indicate the
potential for minimal drier air above the surface to advect
eastward in westerly flow later this morning into the early
afternoon, which may help at least decrease the coverage of
rain, though patchy drizzle will remain possible at times.

As mentioned, temperatures will largely by the most difficult
portion of the forecast today. In general, above normal
temperatures will continue in subtle warm advection, though
daytime highs are expected to be cooler than over the weekend.

Highs will depend on the northward progression of the warm
front, which typically ends up stalling across long island. Cold
air damming to the north of the front, primarily across the
lower hudson valley and connecticut in combination with the
overcast skies and light drizzle will likely keep temperatures a
few degrees below guidance. Farther south across northeastern
nj, the nyc metro and long island, there is some potential for
temperatures to be higher than guidance forecast if the warm
front progresses northward faster.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Well above normal temperatures are expected for tonight as
overcast skies and warm advection prevail. A non-diurnal trend
will occur as the warm front begins to shift northward through
the area. Similar to the uncertainties of Monday, low
temperatures will largely depend on the speed in which the warm
front passes to the north, while highs will be around 10-15
degrees above climatological normals as the front moves
through.

After the passage of the front, low-level mass response to the
potent upper short wave will allow for quick moisture advection,
with southwest flow just above the surface ranging from 50-70
kt. Deep layer moisture represented by precipitable water
values around 1-1.20 inches will be potentially close to a
climatological maximum for this time of year, setting the stage
for periods of moderate to locally rainfall. With strong warm
advection in the low- levels and cooling temperatures aloft with
the approaching upper short wave, there will be a period of at
least marginal elevated instability, which will support
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Should temperatures
rise enough at the surface to lead to a weakened inversion,
there is potential for the stronger winds above the surface to
mix down in any thunderstorms. Regardless, a tight pressure
gradient will lead to strong winds across the area through the
day.

With deep-layer flow strongly veered initially, expect heavy
showers to be scattered in nature. As the front approaches, low-
level flow will veer, creating a more unidirectional deep-
layer profile oriented along the boundary that may support the
development of a line of showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter,
precipitation will rapidly decrease from west to east following
the frontal passage.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The main question among available guidance is speed of downstream
trough as is passes across the country. The GFS not surprisingly
remains on the faster side of the guidance. ECMWF is trending
quicker, while ensemble guidance suggests a slightly slower
progression east.

This obviously impacts surface features and associated cold front as
well.

Overall, dry weather prevails Tuesday night through early Saturday,
and quite possibly through Saturday night. Any lingering rain with
the cold front Tuesday evening quickly ends. Upper shortwave passes
across the northeast, and is followed by another weak upper level
shortwave Wednesday night, with little fanfare with this second
shortwave.

Then ridge builds ahead of aforementioned trough next weekend.

Dry forecast until Saturday night Sunday. Capped pops at high chance
Sunday due to timing uncertainty.

Temperatures return to near normal as CAA ensues behind the cold
front. It may take some time for the colder air to settle in, which
likely happens behind sfc trough associated with second shortwave,
so readings may eclipse seasonal norms Wednesday before falling back
closer to seasonal norms Wednesday night through Friday.

Then temps rebound to above climo in return flow ahead of trough,
cold front next weekend.

Due to this warmup, plain rain is expected with the next system.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
A warm front will likely remain fairly stationary across the
nyc metro and LI terminals today, moving slowly through the
region tonight. Exact timing and placement are uncertain, but it
appears the front will likely stall south of kteb, klga and
northern terminals through this evening.

MVFR conditions expected to develop this morning with drizzle
and light rain for terminals mentioned north of the front, with
ifr likely developing this afternoon and continuing through the
evening push. Meanwhile the terminals south of the front (kjfk,
kewr, kisp) likely vary between MVFR andVFR today through this
evening. Ifr conditions expected for all terminals late tonight
into Tuesday morning with rain developing.

Winds will be light E SE for terminals to the south of the warm
front, and light E NE to the north of the front today, with some
wobble of the front to the north and south of nyc nj metro and
li terminals. Winds veer to the SE then S late tonight into
Monday morning as warm front pushes north of the region.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 30 mi47 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 38°F 35°F1021.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi41 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 36°F1022.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi39 min SSW 9.7 G 12 44°F 41°F2 ft1021.2 hPa (-0.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi41 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 34°F 34°F1022 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi39 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 42°F 40°F2 ft1020.6 hPa (+0.3)40°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi93 minSE 57.00 miOvercast44°F41°F89%1020.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY8 mi33 minESE 47.00 miOvercast43°F42°F97%1021.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY20 mi36 minSE 610.00 miOvercast44°F39°F85%1022.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi36 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist40°F39°F97%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN7N73NW5CalmNW4S4CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E3SE3SE3SE3SE5Calm
1 day agoSW12W13W19
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W13W8W5W4W7W5W3W6W6W6W5NW3W5CalmCalm
2 days agoW3W7W8W10
G17
NW10W9W12W10W4SW4CalmSE4CalmCalmSW6SW4SW5SW9SW8SW7SW4SW7SW9SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:00 AM EST     1.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:23 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:14 PM EST     1.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:31 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81110.80.60.40.30.20.20.40.60.911.11.10.90.70.40.20-00.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Smith Point Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:44 AM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:58 PM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:51 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.110.90.70.40.30.20.20.40.711.21.21.210.70.40.20-00.10.40.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.