Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Patchogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 2:09 AM EST (07:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:58PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 923 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019
Overnight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain and snow in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Sun..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..W winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 923 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore tonight, followed by a low pressure system that will impact the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold front follows on Thursday with high pressure returning Thursday night through Saturday. Another low pressure system then impacts the waters Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Patchogue, NY
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location: 40.77, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200556
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1256 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore tonight, followed by a low pressure
system that will impact the region Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A cold front follows on Thursday with high pressure
returning Thursday night through Saturday. Another low pressure
system then impacts the region Saturday night into Sunday.

High pressure builds back early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Made adjustments to temperatures and sky cover with this update.

Cirrus should continue to thicken overnight as an impressive
200 kt jet is located across new england. These clouds will
stream overhead ahead of the developing storm system to our
west. The clouds will likely prevent temperatures from dropping
as much previously forecast. Have therefore raised lows a few
degrees across the board. More adjustments may be needed if
temperatures continue to be slow to drop through the night.

A 1039 mb high will be situated overhead through the night with
dry low and middle levels in place.

Expect lows to range from the middle teens in typically cooler
outlying locations, to the mid-upper 20s in new york city and
surrounding metro areas.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Initially dry conditions can be expected as high pressure shifts
offshore ahead of a developing low pressure system. With
increasing warm moist advection, gradual saturation will occur,
allowing light snow to overspread the region from southwest to
northeast. At onset, snow may be lighter and fluffier due to a
cooler column, and may struggle to spread farther north and east
with the antecedent dry air mass.

By rush hour, roughly late afternoon into the evening, strong
frontogenesis will move through portions of northeastern nj,
nyc, western long island and the lower hudson valley, allowing
for a temporary increase in rates, while temperatures continue
to rise. A quick burst of moderate snowfall will be possible,
but with the wetter snow, accumulations may not be as
significant. Overall consensus shows 1-3 inches possible for
these areas. A winter weather advisory is now in place due to
the expected impact on the evening commute.

Snow then overspreads the remainder of the areas into the
evening, with similar impacts potential for the commute. Across
the southern most areas, snow will gradually transition to a brief
period of mixed precipitation before rain develops around
midnight. Across the interior, surface temperatures will
struggle to rise above freezing. Similar to the previous event,
dry air advects into mid and upper levels, hindering snow
growth, with low level warm advection supporting more of a
freezing drizzle profile. The advisory will remain in place due
to this potential for at least trace amounts of freezing rain.

Precipitation gradually begins to taper from west to east,
generally prior to the morning commute.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Rain tapers off Thursday morning as a coastal low pressure
moves off to the northeast. High pressure builds across the area
Thursday night. Temperatures on Thursday will rise into the low
to mid 50s. A cold front crosses the region late Thursday
temperatures dropping into the upper 20s inland and low to mid
30s along the coast. High pressure dominates Friday through a
good part of Saturday with a return to seasonable temperatures.

Another storm system impacts the area Saturday night into Sunday,
bringing another round of precipitation to the region. Given the
surface low track north and west of the area, expect the
precipitation to be mainly in the form rain with some snow mix
possible overnight Saturday further inland. High pressure builds
back for the beginning of the week.

Temperatures will start out on Saturday in the low to mid 40s then
rise into the upper 40s to near 50 by Sunday, then return to
seasonable normals Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure slowly slides offshore into tonight, as a weak
coastal low slides northeast to the mid-atlantic coast into
tonight.

Vfr through at least this morning, then MVFR then ifr
conditions develop from SW to NE this afternoon early Wednesday
evening in snow. The precipitation then mixes with and changes
to rain from S to N into tonight. The exception is at kswf
where a prolonged period of freezing rain is possible.

Winds become light and variable throughout early this morning,
then se-e winds develop by afternoon at less than 10kt then
back to the east by mid-late afternoon. Inland terminals could
remain light and variable on Wednesday.

Outlook for 06z Thursday through Sunday
Late tonight Ifr or lower possible in rain at southern
terminals and a wintry mix changing to rain at northern
terminals. A prolonged period of freezing rain is possible at
kswf. Llws possible for coastal terminals.

Thursday-Saturday morning Vfr. W-nw winds g15-25kt possible
from late Thursday morning into Friday morning.

Saturday afternoon-Sunday MVFR or lower in rain, with a
wintry mix possible across northern terminals Saturday afternoon
and night. Sw-w winds g20-30kt possible Sunday.

Marine
Forecast on track on the waters this evening.

Winds and seas will remain tranquil into tonight as high
pressure moves over the waters. An area of low pressure is then
expected to impact the waters Wednesday night, allowing a brief
increase in winds and seas on the ocean. A small craft advisory
is now in effect for Wednesday night.

Sca conditions expected Thursday through Thursday night. As high
pressure builds across the area waters, seas fall below sca
conditions on Friday and remain below SCA levels through Sunday
before increasing back to SCA conditions Sunday night.

Hydrology
Liquid equivalent precipitation amounts Wednesday
into early Thursday morning will generally be around one half to
three quarters of an inch.

Another system may result in more wet weather late this weekend, but
it is too early to tell if any hydrologic will occur.

Tides coastal flooding
There is a chance for some minor coastal flooding for high tide
cycles early Thursday, particularly across the south shore back
bays of long island and western long island sound along the
shorelines of southwest connecticut.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Thursday for ctz005>012.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Thursday for nyz078>081.

Winter weather advisory from noon today to 6 am est Thursday
for nyz067>075-176>179.

Nj... Winter weather advisory from noon today to 6 am est Thursday
for njz002-004-006-103>108.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am est
Thursday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Md fig
near term... Md ds
short term... Md
long term... Fig
aviation... Maloit
marine... Md fig
hydrology... Md fig
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 30 mi39 min N 5.1 G 8 24°F 36°F1035.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi39 min NE 8 G 8.9 24°F 38°F1036.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi79 min N 9.7 G 12 33°F 40°F2 ft1036 hPa (-0.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi39 min N 5.1 G 6 28°F 34°F1037.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi29 min N 7.8 G 12 31°F 40°F1036.3 hPa10°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi73 minN 610.00 miFair27°F9°F46%1035.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY8 mi73 minN 310.00 miFair25°F8°F48%1036.1 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY20 mi76 minN 510.00 miFair25°F7°F46%1036.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi76 minNNE 510.00 miFair27°F10°F51%1035.9 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW8NW5NW5NW6N9NW10N10NW10NW10NW8NW10N11NW11NW7N3SW3CalmNW5CalmN5N6N6N3
1 day agoNE5E7E7E9E5E6N3N5N7NW5NW8W18
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2 days agoN9N8N9N8N7N8N85N73S9S6S8S6S5SW5S5S6SE4CalmCalmN3NE5NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Long Island, New York
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Patchogue
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Wed -- 05:54 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:30 AM EST     0.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:32 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.50.70.90.90.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-00.30.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mastic Beach, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York
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Mastic Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:46 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:30 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:35 AM EST     0.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:24 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.20-0.1-0.1-00.20.40.50.60.70.60.40.30.1-0-0.1-0.100.20.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.