Wednesday, May24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ranshaw, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:15 PM EDT (03:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:07AMMoonset 6:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1031 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt Thursday...
Rest of tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...except flat near the mouth of the susquehanna. Rain likely late this evening, then rain with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with scattered tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of tstms.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will pass through the waters late tonight into Thursday. The cold front associated with this low will move through the area Thursday night. High pressure will build overhead Friday through Friday night before moving off the mid-atlantic coast Saturday. A warm front will stall out near the waters later Saturday and Sunday before a stronger cold front possibly moves through on Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Friday through Friday evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ranshaw, PA
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location: 40.77, -76.5     debug

Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 250242
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1042 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

A storm over the tn valley will deepen and slide over pa on
Thursday and up the new england coast Friday. Rain tonight and
Thursday morning will be followed by scattered showers through
Friday night. Saturday may be the best day of the weekend. The
second half of the memorial day weekend looks wet with another
storm system moving through the great lakes.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Showers have overspread the western half of central pa as of
late evening and are rapidly spreading ene across central va.

Eastern half of central pa will be raining in most areas by
06z... As secondary 850 mb jet lifting northward from the central
and northern virginia strengtens and focuses forcing over
central and eastern pa. This feature becomes quite robust by
09-12z... Strengthening to over 40 kts as the nose of the llj
tracks northward through pa after 12z. This should support
moderate rain arriving north of the mason dixon line between
09z and 15z... And current QPF amounts of near or slightly over
1 inch for my south central and central zones look good at this
time. While the low levels remain quite stable. The steadiest
rain will be crossing the mason- dixon line around sunrise... In
conjunction with the aforementioned llj.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
The rain will lift up northward through the morning. However,
it looks to stay cloudy for another few hours. The southerly
flow is not all that strong and may not help to scour out the
low clouds very efficiently. Showers may again develop - ESP if
there will be breaks develop in the south. These would then
rotate north in the aftn. But, for most folks there will be a
brief break of just cloudy during the morning in the south and
midday central and elsewhere. Again, if the low clouds hang
around too long, the arrival of the upper energy will not line
up with Sun instability. May be able to make some points on
mos by keeping temps down a notch or two in the south. The sky
cover forecast for thurs is pretty bleak, so we will hold maxes
below guidance a bit.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
The strong upper trough will consolidate low pressure at the
surface over pa producing a rainy Thursday night before lifting
it up the new england coast Friday. Broad cyclonic northwest
flow with additional shortwaves rotating around the departing
upper low will keep showers in the fcst on Friday before precip
winds down Friday night am Saturday.

A lower-amplitude mid level flow pattern in the wake of the
departing closed upper low will feature rising heights weak
ridging aloft into the weekend. The pattern will evolve into a
broadly cyclonic flow regime by early next week with upper low
spinning between the great lakes and hudson bay into midweek.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the location and
timing of shortwave impulses that could be a factor for
convection on Saturday. Model and ensemble guidance still
favoring locations to the south west of central pa so a dry
start to the holiday weekend may be in store for the area.

Model blend maintains the highest pops on Sunday with a risk for
thunderstorms as well as a frontal system slides through. Another
round of showers (storms se) possible for memorial day, with sct
showers poss lingering Tue into Wed as the parade of shortwaves
around the trough continues into midweek.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
MVFR ceilings have advected into my swrn terminals in the
strengthening SE flow.

Regional radar shows a growing area of rain racing north out of
the virginias already affecting my swrn areas and about to move
into jst. Continuity and the hrrr show the rain continuing to
overspread the region during the evening and into the wee hours
of Thursday. Expect widespread MVFR ifr to spread northward
with the rain with all terminals seeing conditions lower between
about 03-06z.

MVFR ifr conditions will continue into the morning in the south
and perhaps well into the afternoon in the north. Breaks
associated with the dry slot will develop in the south in the
morning as the steady rain pulls away. This will set the stage
for some modest instability to develop leading to the chance
for a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Fri... Scattered showers with MVFR ceilings, mainly over western

Sat... MainlyVFR with scattered rain showers.

Sun... Reduced conditions with scattered showers thunderstorms
associated with a cold front.

Mon... MainlyVFR with scattered showers thunderstorms.

Ctp watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Dangelo steinbugl
near term... Dangelo devoir
short term... Dangelo
long term... Rxr steinbugl
aviation... La corte

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 88 mi46 min 60°F 1008.2 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 92 mi46 min 60°F 65°F1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selinsgrove Penn Valley Airport, PA19 mi23 minSE 1310.00 miOvercast64°F50°F60%1006.7 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA23 mi18 minE 810.00 miOvercast63°F50°F64%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from SEG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW3CalmCalmW3NW3NW3CalmCalmE3CalmN33--SE11
1 day agoCalmN3NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S6S5S5S5CalmCalmCalm
2 days ago6S6S85S5S4S5S7S5S7S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Wed -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:58 AM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:14 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Charlestown, Northeast River, Maryland
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Wed -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.