Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 5:42 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 136 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
This afternoon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Tue - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Tue night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters during the middle to late part of the week.

FXUS61 KCTP 061745 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 145 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across south central PA this afternoon - Widespread showers and storms are likely for Tuesday night through Thursday as the unsettled pattern continues - Cooler temperatures and lingering scattered showers are expected for Friday and into the beginning of the weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The fog has finally lifted across all of PA giving way to mostly cloudy skies with some sunshine peeking through across the norther tier. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s for much of central PA this afternoon, which will feel noticeably warmer than this past weekend.

A weak cold front pushing eastward through the area has a few showers along it early this morning. As it moves south of Interstate 80 this afternoon, it will tap into enough moisture and instability to support more numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as the front approaches the Maryland border.
The highest chance for a few lightning strikes will be across the Laurel highlands, where MLCAPE is progged to reach 750-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, enough dry air will nudge into northern PA for a few peeks of sunshine.

Most model guidance shows the convective activity along the southern tier waning tonight with the loss of daytime heating, but isolated to scattered light rain showers will likely persist. Some fog is possible tonight as well, though confidence in fog is not as high as it was last night. Low temps will range form the mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in the southern tier, with the north to south gradient in moisture playing a large role in overnight cooling.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upper level ridging over PA indicates warmer conditions are likely Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80F. A warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley, a 500mb short wave trough, and 850mb warm air advection pattern will result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties. Showers and a few storms will overspread the area Tuesday night as the warm front progresses northeast. MU CAPE during this time is likely to increase to near 1000 J/kg and support widespread thunderstorm activity.

Low temperatures Tuesday night will dip to the low 60s across the northern tier of the CWA and remain in the mid 60s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Unsettled weather will continue into Wednesday and Thursday.
Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with ensemble mean 850mb temps of 16C suggesting max temps well into the 80s across the Lower Susq Valley. Upper-level divergence overhead will be supportive of widespread showers and thunderstorms as the large scale upper level trough swings across the state. An 850mb LLJ will also be in place on Wednesday and Thursday during the 9-15z time frame, supporting late night/early morning convection. The SPC has outlined this threat with a MRGL SWO for Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms continues to be focused on Wed night into Thursday, with a deepening upstream trough and sfc low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley and across the area. The SPC highlights our area in a MRGL risk for severe weather during this time frame, on the periphery of a SLGHT-ENH risk area over the Ohio Valley.

The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support scattered diurnal convection Friday through Sunday, along with a downward trend in temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic Ocean will maintain stratus over Central PA tonight with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs and ridgetop fog. Improving flying conditions look likely Monday as high pressure builds into the region from the Grt Lks, causing winds to shift from southeast to north. Latest forecast soundings and ensemble prob charts support a transition to MVFR during early afternoon and potentially VFR by late in the day.
Low pressure lifting up the Ohio Valley could spread showers and reduced cigs into the southern tier of PA Monday evening.

Outlook...

Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA. Isold evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.

Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.

Thu...Rain/low cigs likely.

Fri...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly AM.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:47 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:03 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Charlestown
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Mon -- 03:24 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charlestown, Northeast River, Maryland, Tide feet

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