Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ranshaw, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:50PM Friday February 22, 2019 7:02 AM EST (12:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 8:54AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 638 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Today..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 638 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will stall across the carolinas through tonight as high pressure builds to the north toward new england. Low pressure developing over the middle mississippi river valley will strengthen as it moves northeastward across the great lakes into canada this weekend. High pressure will build from the northern great plains toward the great lakes and eventually into the northeast through the first half of next week. Gale conditions are likely over the waters Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ranshaw, PA
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location: 40.77, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 221029
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
529 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the upper great lakes early today
will build east and become located over upstate new york
tonight. This weather feature will bring fair and milder weather
to pennsylvania to close out the week.

The high pressure area will drift off the southern new england
coast on Saturday, and a gusty southeast to south wind will
develop with clouds thickening up during the day followed by
a soaking rain late Saturday into early Sunday. The air could
be cold enough late Saturday afternoon and evening throughout
the valleys of central pennsylvania for the rain to begin as
a brief period of freezing rain.

Gusty and potentially damaging westerly wind gusts will develop
in the wake of cold front late Sunday morning and will continue
through midday Monday.

Near term through tonight
Relatively tranquil conditions were noted across all of central
pa early this morning with varying amounts and thickness of mid
and high clouds streaming ene over the state. The origin of
this extensive, anti-cyclonic plume of moisture was from the
tropical pacific to the west of southern mexico.

As the high to our NW approaches the lower great lakes and
ridges into the region, some slight veering to the mid and upper
flow and dry advection aloft will occur and allow for the mid
and high cloud deck to shift slightly south to mainly the
southern third to half of pa this afternoon and tonight.

Winds will be light today with MAX temps near, to perhaps a few
deg f above normal in the east (or lower 40s) and 4-7 deg f
above normal over the western mtns (in the upper 30s to low
40s).

Skies will be clear to partly cloudy across central and
northern pa tonight, while varying amounts of mid and high
clouds will persist across the southern few layers of pa
counties.

Lows tonight will be cool (in the upper teens throughout the
perennial cold spots up north, to around 30f in the south thanks
to the cloud cover), but still a few deg f above normal in many
locations.

Pws will stay between 0.25 and 0.35 of an inch today and
tonight.

Short term Saturday and Saturday night
Pws will jump upward to moderately high levels (0.75 to one
inch) during the mid to late morning hours Sat across the sw
third of pa, and during the afternoon hours central and nepa.

Clouds will thicken-up during the day with rain spreading in
from the south southwest early Sat afternoon acrs the laurel
highlands, and during the mid to late afternoon hours elsewhere
as a neg tilt 850-700 mb trough moves northeast.

Higher pwat air (between 1-1.25 inches) will spread in from the
ohio river valley Saturday night and a soaking rainfall for 7 to
9 hours will ensue as uvvel increases at the nose of a 55 to 65
kt swrly llj. Consensus rainfall amounts are between 0.6 and 1.0
inch by around sunrise Sunday, which should be very manageable
regarding stream levels since a significant percentage of the
snow from the midweek storm melted on Thursday, and most will be
gone and flowing into the larger tribs and rivers before the
bulk of the rain arrives late Saturday into early Sunday.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Focus shifts toward the potential of strong winds Sunday pm, as
trailing cold front sweeps through the area, allowing strong
winds associated with grt lks storm to mix to ground level. This
scenario of a powerful low passing north of pa fits the pattern
we see with our strongest winds across central pa and a quick
look at model 850mb winds suggest >50kt gusts are possible.

Issued a high wind watch for our entire area from late morning
Sunday into Monday afternoon, and maintained basically the same
wording for strong winds in the hwo.

As the temperatures continue to warm aloft, expect a likely
surge to springlike readings Sunday. The shallow cool air should
mix out then there should be a return to seasonal readings for
next week. Med range guidance points toward dry weather early
next week, as high pressure builds across the region. However,
model spread and forecast uncertainty ramps up by the middle of
next week concerning the track, timing and strength of a fast
moving shortwave approaching from the midwest. Given when the
instability is for the storm next midweek, have changed precip
type to mostly snow.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
Late evening TAF updates set.

Cloud deck lower now across the southern part of the state, near
15k ft.

Earlier discussion below.

00z tafs sent.

After a winter storm into last evening, the late february
sun warmed things up good this aft, helping to melt some ice.

Anyway, looking at mainlyVFR tonight into Friday. Some
hints of lower CIGS at bfd later tonight, thus left them in
the fcst.

The airmass not real cold. Winds not real strong. A nice
break from the recent stormy weather.

Outlook...

sat... Trending MVFR to ifr with rain. A brief wintry mix
possible.

Sun... Windy with showers. Some snow showers possible late
across the northwest.

Mon... Windy. MainlyVFR. Still a chance of snow showers across
the northwest.

Tue... MainlyVFR. Chc of snow late across the northwest.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for paz028-036-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon
for paz004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-045.

Synopsis... Lambert
near term... Lambert
short term... Lambert
long term... Lambert
aviation... Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 88 mi50 min 43°F 39°F1025.4 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 92 mi50 min 42°F 39°F1025.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 93 mi44 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 44°F 40°F1026.3 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selinsgrove Penn Valley Airport, PA19 mi69 minNW 310.00 miFair33°F26°F75%1027.1 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA23 mi66 minN 410.00 miA Few Clouds39°F23°F53%1026 hPa

Wind History from SEG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4CalmCalmCalmW6W12
G17
5W9W7W4W4W44W5W5W4CalmW4NW6NW6NW4NW3NW3
1 day agoCalmS6S4CalmSE3SE3S7S5SE4S5S6S7SE7S4S6S5SW4CalmCalmSW33SW4CalmCalm
2 days agoW5W8NW7NW9
G17
N5W4N75Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:24 AM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:54 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:52 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:36 PM EST     2.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:08 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.42.11.61.10.50.1-0.3-0.4-0.10.71.52.12.11.91.50.90.4-0.1-0.5-0.6-0.40.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware
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Millside
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:12 AM EST     5.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:12 AM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:34 PM EST     5.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:41 PM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.655.65.44.43.11.90.8-0.1-0.7-0.31.33.24.75.65.74.93.82.51.40.4-0.4-0.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.