Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 12:04 PM   Moonset 1:46 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 942 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely late this morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 52 degrees, and off erie 55 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 151754 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 154 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will slowly move east across the area today as low pressure tracks east across the Ohio River Valley and off the Mid- Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure returns for Thursday. Another low pressure system will impact the area late this week, moving a warm front north on Friday followed by a cold front east late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
12:30 PM Update...
Continue to increase PoPs with rain showers being surprisingly stubborn in Marion/Morrow Counties (and surrounding counties)
this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
A surface low centered over southern IL/IN will continue to drift east today as an upper level trough allows the system to be a bit more progressive. With this, a near stationary boundary over NW OH will also become progressive and move east across the area as a weak cold front. Overall synoptic and mesoscale forcing continues to remain very weak allowing for only isolated, light showers to occur this morning and into the early afternoon. Ahead of the boundary this afternoon, models suggest a nose of increased instability pushing north over the eastern portion of the CWA which should provide additional support for shower development ahead of the the departing boundary this afternoon into the early evening. There remains a slight chance of thunder, but no severe weather is expected. By tonight, high pressure will build over the area and allow for any lingering showers to diminish from west to east. This high will remain dominant through Thursday.

Highs today will reach into the upper 60s to low 70s before warming a bit on Thursday into the mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Isentropic lift will increase Thursday night as a warm front moves across the region into early Friday. The entire region should be in the warm sector by Friday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible. We are concerned that we are setting ourselves up to a similar scenario to what is currently going on over OH early this morning with only scattered coverage for the most part. However we will go with likely POP's for now and adjust from there over the next couple days. A weakening cold front sags southward across the region Friday night into Saturday as low pressure move eastward near the Ohio Valley. So expect to see rain chances through Saturday night but it doesnt look like much more than scattered coverage.
Maybe slightly higher chances across the southern half of the CWA near the weak frontal boundary. Above average temperatures are expected through the short term period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Models are differing on the timing of some weak pieces of jet energy that look to ride the north side of an upper level ridge that should build overhead. Not overly confident in shower/thunderstorm chances.
However there is enough of a signal to at least mention them in the forecast. Isolated to scattered in coverage if they end up forming at all. Temperatures become more summer-like in the long term period, especially Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/
Showers continue to persist this afternoon between KMFD and KMFD and vicinity. Expect additional showers to develop east of I-71 as well, especially near KCAK and KYNG where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through about 21-22Z.
Showers quickly diminish after 00Z. A mix of MVFR/IFR with low clouds/visibilities may affect all TAF sites except KTOL late tonight through tomorrow morning, although it's low confidence at this point the areal extent of visibility/cloud cover right now and the categories. More than likely the areas that get the most rainfall this afternoon are likely to have the greatest impacts with visibilities/clouds tonight.

Winds through the period will persist out of the northeast at 5-12 knots before becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday.

MARINE
Northerly winds in the wake of a weakening cold front will occur on the lake today. Speeds shouldn't exceed 15 knots. So it will be difficult to build waves beyond 3 feet. At this point a small craft advisory is not anticipated, although it likely becomes choppy in the nearshore waters. The lake is impacted by another weakening storm system Thursday night through Saturday. Winds return to the south ahead of a cold front on Friday but speeds should remain under 12 knots. A weakening cold front sags southward across the lake Friday night which will help to direct low pressure across southern OH on Saturday. The main impact on the lake will be to turn winds to the east and northeast Saturday into Saturday night. However wind speeds should be under 15 knots so no small craft advisories are anticipated.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Cleveland, OH,