Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mansfield, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:12PM Thursday February 21, 2019 5:36 PM EST (22:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 8:46AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:201902212115;;285098 Fzus51 Kcle 211438 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 938 Am Est Thu Feb 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>145-212115- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 938 Am Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Partly cloudy.
Friday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees, off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
LEZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mansfield, OH
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location: 40.77, -82.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 212028
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
328 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the region tonight and Friday.

Strong low pressure will develop over the southern plains on
Saturday and will track through the great lakes Sunday. This
will lift a warm front north through the area late Saturday
followed quickly by a cold front Saturday night into Sunday.

High pressure will build across the region Monday and Monday
night.

Near term through Friday night
Fairly quiet near term period as a ridge currently extending
from the northern plains into the lower ohio valley builds east
across the region tonight and tomorrow. Some high clouds will
stream northward into the area tonight from low pressure across
the southern us, otherwise conditions will remain dry with winds
becoming light and variable overnight. Lows will drop into the
low mid 20s. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, with upper
30s near the lake where onshore flow persists, and low mid 40s
away from the lake. Cloud cover will increase Friday night as a
warm front lifts north towards the area. Precip will approach
the area as well, but should hold off across the local area
until early Saturday morning. Lows tomorrow night will be in the
mid 20s to low 30s.

Short term Saturday through Monday
Large broad upper level ridge will be present over the eastern
half of the united states Saturday. Meanwhile, negatively tilted
trough will set-up over the plains states with an upper level
low pressure system at the base of the trough. The trough and
associated upper level low pressure system will lift northeast
across the great lakes region Saturday night. Meanwhile, surface
cyclogenesis will take place at the base of the trough Friday
night into Saturday and the resultant low will rapidly intensify
by Saturday evening. The will practically bomb out as it moves
into the great lakes setting-up strong warm air advection
Saturday into Saturday night. Expecting now that temperatures
will warm through the day Saturday and continue to warm Saturday
night as a surge of warm air moves north ahead of the cold
front. Models have been advertising some fairly strong winds
expected across the area late Saturday night into Sunday. The
strong winds will remain aloft early Saturday night as a fairly
strong inversion develops. Due to the developing potential for
instability across the local area in the warm air advection
Saturday night, there is the possibility for showers and even
some thunderstorms that will develop along a pre-cold frontal
trough. There is the possibility that we could see some strong
damaging winds with the thunderstorms as they tap into the 60
knots plus just above the surface. The storm prediction center
has the southwest portion of the forecast area in a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday evening. Then, by Sunday
morning, the inversion will begin to break down as cold air
advection takes place. This will allow the stronger winds to mix
down to the surface and there is the possibility that we will
need some sort of high wind headline by Sunday into Sunday
night. Model soundings support the strong winds mixing to the
surface across the entire forecast area during this time period.

As the deep low pressure system moves northeast of the area
Sunday, the cold air advection will take place and transition
any rain over to snow. Some wrap around moisture will pull into
northwest ohio and then the rest of the northern portions of the
area during the day Sunday. Snow showers will gradually end
over the northeast snowbelt Monday with fair weather over the
rest of the forecast area Monday.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
After a massive bomb hits the great lakes over the weekend, the
trend is headed toward the flow becoming more tranquil and nearly
zonal flow setting up aloft Monday night and Tuesday. Amplification
of an upper level ridge will take place over the western slopes of
the rocky mountains by Tuesday night and it will remain nearly
stationary through Thursday. Unfortunately, the final response will
be slowly deepening of a broad upper level trough over the eastern
three fourths of the lower 48 states. This trend will send
gradually cooler air into the forecast area but should for the most
part allow high pressure ridge at the surface to extend southeast
into the southeastern part of the country through the end of the
week. Low pressure is expected to move east across central canada
and force a weak cold front east across the area.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions expected through the period as high pressure
drifts across the region. Mainly clear skies expected through
the period, aside from some high clouds overspreading the
region, and some possible low clouds off the lake at keri
throughout the period. West winds gusting to 20-25 kts this
afternoon will become light and variable overnight, and easterly
late in the period.

Outlook... NonVFR possible again Saturday Sunday with strong
southwest to west winds possible Sunday.

Marine
Big changes coming to the lake in the weather department as a
massive low pressure is expected to develop over the oklahoma
panhandle and move northeast toward the region Saturday and Saturday
night. The low will rapidly intensify as it reaches the great lakes
resulting in increasing winds Saturday night and continuing through
Monday morning. There is a high likelihood for gale force winds on
the lake Saturday night into Monday morning with gusts to 55 knots
possible. There is also the possibility that winds could approach
storm force by Sunday after a strong cold front moves east across
the lake. Once the low pressure system moves eat of lake erie
Sunday and Monday, winds will gradually diminish on the lake from
west to east and become light and variable by Tuesday.

Not only will winds be a problem over the weekend but the potential
for lower water issues exists as well on the western basin of the
lake.

Significant ice floe movement is expected over the weekend in the
strong winds. There is a high potential for ridging and rafting of
the ice in the strong winds and mariners should be ALERT that tracks
will not hold. Latest satellite imagery is showing some shifting of
the ice already on the lake with numerous gaps opening up as a
result of the brisk winds today.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Greenawalt
short term... Lombardy
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Greenawalt
marine... Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi172 min SW 6 42°F 1020 hPa25°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 44 mi37 min WSW 8.9 G 16 39°F 1020.7 hPa (+2.1)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 54 mi55 min WSW 9.9 G 18 38°F 32°F1022.8 hPa26°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH5 mi45 minWSW 910.00 miFair38°F26°F62%1023 hPa

Wind History from MFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE11S11S12SW14
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1 day agoE7E8E8E7E7E8E6E6E10E8SE8E10NE9NE9E10E16E13E13SE13SE14SE15SE14S10SE15
2 days agoNW5CalmW3NW3CalmSW4CalmW3CalmCalmSE3S4S4S3S4S3CalmSW3CalmS633E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.