Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mansfield, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:50PM Saturday May 25, 2019 7:40 AM EDT (11:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:50AMMoonset 11:04AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 930 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019
Overnight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees and off erie 55 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201905250815;;411081 FZUS51 KCLE 250130 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 930 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ144>146-250815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mansfield, OH
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.77, -82.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 251053
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
653 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift northeast of the area through the
morning hours Saturday. A cold front will slowly sag south
towards the area through Saturday night, pushing just south of
the area Sunday. The front will remain between the southern
great lakes and ohio valley through Monday before lifting north
through the area Monday night into Tuesday, remaining north of
the area through midweek.

Near term through Sunday
Minor adjustments to pop and sky trends through mid morning,
otherwise have left the forecast in tact for the day.

Original discussion...

fairly low confidence forecast today into tonight, as a warm
front lifts northeast across the area early this morning. A few
thunderstorms have developed over lake erie ahead of the front,
and may push inland over far NE oh NW pa through daybreak.

Forecast becomes increasingly uncertain through the morning.

Hi-res guidance signals have been rather erratic with both run
to run and inter-model consistency, which leads to lower
confidence in specific timing, coverage and intensity of the
thunderstorms during the afternoon evening. The first feature of
note is an area of clouds and an isolated storm near louisville,
ky, near an area of weak low level moisture convergence. A
relatively consistent signal across the hi-res guidance is for
this area to track northeast through central and eastern oh into
western pa through the morning hours. As daytime heating
commences and mixing deepens, a few showers storms may impact
the southeast eastern part of the area. Pops generally increase
through the morning hours across the eastern part of the area.

As modest destabilization occurs through midday, a weak lake
breeze boundary may serve as a focus for convection east of
cleveland.

The big question is the evolution of convection this afternoon
across the area. Model solutions have diverged significantly
over the past 24 hours, as a potent mid level vort MAX ejects
eastward through the area mid late afternoon. This is expected
to be the main synoptic mesoscale feature to initiate
convection across the area. However, there may be a low level
outflow boundary, noted near the NE il NW in border per klot
radar, that may arrive in northwest oh by 18z and serve as an
earlier focus for convection. A few factors are becoming
increasingly unfavorable for widespread convection and severe
weather. First, the earlier convection fires will help limit
overall destabilization across the area, with a muted severe
thunderstorm risk as increasing deep layer shear is still only
in the 20-30 kt range. This may result in more
scattered isolated pulse type storms that may pose a downburst
type threat vs. More organized convection producing more
widespread wind damage. Also, mixing looks to be fairly robust
through the morning hours across the region, with a good amount
of mid level dry air and only modest moisture in the 925-850mb
layer through the afternoon, which could limit overall
destabilization as well. Overall, expecting isolated scattered
convection to form across the region between 18-21z, and am
leaning towards more isolated strong to severe thunderstorms vs.

More a more widespread organized line. With steep low level
lapse rates and good dry air aloft, expecting damaging winds to
be the main threat with any stronger convection. Opted for pops
increasing into the high likely range mid late afternoon,
pushing southeast through the evening with lower pops into the
overnight. Went on the higher end of guidance for high temps
today, with low mid 80s expected, although imagine a few spots
will get into the upper 80s with the impressive mixing.

The focus for convection will shift south of the area overnight
into early Sunday, however another decent wave looks to track
east across the area during the day Sunday, which will bring
another increase in pops to the likely range. SPC is
highlighting the southern part of the area in a marginal slight
risk, with decent deep layer shear and expected surface
destabilization through the morning early afternoon. Highs will
be cooler in the mid upper 70s on Sunday.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Jet energy moving through the westerly flow Sunday night will likely
keep thunderstorms going through midnight then decrease in coverage
as the frontal boundary gets nudged southward. The memorial day
forecast is challenging with a weak area of high pressure building
across the area for the morning but then a warm front will approach
from the south by evening. Currently we do not have a good feeling
on the timing of the pieces of jet energy that will move through the
upper level flow which makes it difficult to forecast a time that
convection will develop. However chances of thunderstorms will
increase from southwest to northeast through the afternoon into the
evening with the best chances potentially occurring Monday night.

This warm front may not clear lake erie for Tuesday and could become
a focus for new development Tuesday afternoon into the overnight as
the next ripple of low pressure moves across the central great
lakes.

So the main take away is be prepared for at least isolated scattered
thunderstorms through the period with Monday morning potentially the
best morning to see dry conditions.

Monday will be slightly cooler in the wake of the weak cold front
with highs in the 70s, warmest south. All locations should be warmer
on Tuesday with most locations warming well into the 80s.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
The long term period doesnt change much with a frontal boundary
remaining in the area into Thursday evening. So expect to see
isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms through the period with
mesoscale features driving the convection until the cold front
attempts to sweep across the area Thursday evening. Models currently
favor dry for Friday with high pressure over the central great lakes.

Wednesday should be the warm day of the long term with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Cooler but the region should be very close to
seasonal averages.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Low confidence forecast for convection this period as a warm
front lifts north of the terminals this morning. GenerallyVFR
conditions expected outside of convection throughout the period,
with gusty southwest winds this afternoon. Tsra potential will
increase sometime this afternoon, peaking mid afternoon, and
diminishing through the evening. Have moved up the window of
vcts a few hours at the terminals, and tried to time a window
for the best tsra potential at the four westernmost terminals.

Will likely need to monitor trends and amened as needed through
the morning. Some of the gusts this afternoon may reach 25-30
kts at the terminals, especially at the western terminals.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible through Tuesday morning and again
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Marine
Several pieces of low pressure will impact the region today through
Tuesday night with a frontal boundary meandering across or near the
lake. So expect changing wind directions through the period. The
strongest southwest winds will likely occur this afternoon into
tonight and again Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of a cold front
each time. Current thinking is that winds will MAX out around 15
knots so the chances of a small craft advisory are very low.

There is a brief period of easterly winds Monday evening that will
bring water levels up across the western basin of the lake. However
speeds may not be high enough to cause anything more than minor
flooding issues with the extremely high water levels.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Greenawalt
short term... Mm
long term... Mm
aviation... Greenawalt
marine... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi56 min S 2.9 70°F 1016 hPa64°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 44 mi41 min SSW 8 G 12 72°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 54 mi41 min S 4.1 G 8.9 69°F 59°F1014.8 hPa (-0.4)64°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
W4
W3
NW5
NW7
NE3
E6
G9
E5
NE4
NE5
NE4
E5
E6
G9
E6
G10
E4
E8
G11
E7
G10
E7
E4
E4
SE2
G5
SE2
S4
G8
S5
G9
S4
G9
1 day
ago
SW7
G12
SW7
G16
SW4
G13
SW10
G15
SW9
G14
W8
G17
W12
G21
W14
G25
W15
G22
W11
G20
W8
G13
W11
G17
W6
G16
W10
G13
W14
G17
W12
W8
W9
W6
W6
W7
W6
NW4
W2
2 days
ago
E9
E9
G16
E7
G10
NE5
G8
NE8
G11
E7
SE3
G6
E5
G10
N4
NE1
E2
E4
E2
SE3
SE4
SE3
S3
S4
S4
G7
S4
G7
S5
G9
S4
S5
G8
S6
G12

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH5 mi49 minSSE 58.00 miFair66°F64°F96%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from MFD (wind in knots)
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last 24hrN5NE3CalmNW7NW9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E3SE6S5S7SE6SE9S8S8SE9S7S5
1 day agoSW15
G25
W11
G23
SW23
G31
SW18
G28
SW21
G33
SW22
G30
W19
G33
SW15
G27
SW17
G26
SW18
G25
SW15
G23
W12
G19
W10
G16
W7W7W8NW7NW7NW4W3N3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE14SE12SE14
G20
SE13SE15S13
G20
S9SE8S8SW8NW7S12
G17
W3SW3S5SW3S4S7S8S10S10S9S7SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.