Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mansfield, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:11PM Saturday November 17, 2018 7:15 PM EST (00:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:38PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 936 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A slight chance of rain and snow showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 39 degrees, off cleveland 47 degrees and off erie 44 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201811172115;;443449 FZUS51 KCLE 171436 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 936 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-172115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mansfield, OH
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location: 40.77, -82.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 172333
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
633 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

00z aviation and mid evening forecast update...

Synopsis
A cold front over the lower great lakes will move southeast
tonight before stalling over the ohio valley on Sunday. Weak low
pressure will move east along the front on Sunday. High pressure
will build in behind the front on Monday before weak low
pressure moves into the great lakes on Monday night into
Tuesday.

Near term through Sunday night
No significant changes were made to the mid evening forecast
update. We did update precip chances along with radar trends. We
will be watching a weak disturbance moving from the midwest into
the ohio river valley region late tonight into tomorrow which
will give us better light snow and light rain chances. We could
see a dusting to up to an inch of snowfall mainly across
northern ohio by midday tomorrow.

Previous discussion...

a cold front stretching from lower ontario into southern lower
michigan and westward will continue to sag south this evening.

Precipitation is struggling to develop ahead of it as there is
quite a bit of dry air still over the region. Some light radar
returns this afternoon are just some flurries that aren't very
concerning for accumulations at the moment. The flavor of the
forecast is that flurries will be likely across the area at some
point tonight but any more significant snow showers would be
limited to the snow belt with some lake enhancement or out west
where there is a bit better lift and moisture... So have a
slight chance everywhere with chance pops in the east and west.

The front will continue south of the area tonight and stall as
a weak surface low will ripple along the stalled front for
Sunday. There is enough support aloft for rain or snow showers
to move in ahead of this feature and will keep a mixture of high
chance to likely pops. Generally believe that everyone will see
some precip on Sunday but going categorical pops is the wrong
flavor of the forecast as liquid snow accumulations will be
light. Biggest challenge for Sunday's forecast will be
precipitation type... Rain or snow will be expected but
changeover will depend on timing of the low and the cold air
surge behind it with rain of course more favored south and snow
favored in the snow belt with a mix of both in between.

Temperatures through the period will continue running colder
than normal, and Sunday night could be into the 20s as cold air
surges down from the north.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
The flow will continue to be progressive, but for this week systems
will begin to come from the west coast of the u.S. Versus canada. So
while the the first part of the week will still feature below normal
temperatures, we will have some slight moderation going toward mid
week. Made adjustments to Monday's forecast which lowered the chance
of precipitation. We look to end up dry as a wedge of high pressure
will be briefly in place with a light southwest flow. There will be
one low to track across the northern plains to the great lakes for
early Tuesday morning with another Wednesday morning. These will be
quick systems with light precipitation. Wednesday's system looks a
bit stronger, but generally moisture starved. High temperatures
will be stuck in the mid upper 30s with a few locations touching
40 (about 10 degrees below normal). Lows will be in the upper
20s.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
With Wednesday's system trending a little stronger, this will
therefore bring in a quick colder snap for Wednesday night through
Thursday night before we get to move toward relative warming for the
rest of the week. The cool high passes across the great lakes on
thanksgiving, staying north of the local area. This will bring north
through northeast and east winds Thursday. Not too concerned with
any lake effect snow Wednesday night. The moisture just isn't there
and by Thursday all of that flurry activity will be squashed.

Southerly flow on the backside of the high will bring warmer temps
for Friday and we will be dry. The next chance for precipitation
will arrive late Friday night and for Saturday. This is as a
shortwave cuts across the country, lifting northeast as it reaches
the mississippi valley. Precip type should not be a concern with h8
temps rising to +4 except for possibly a few cold valleys across the
far east. So after thanksgiving temps rise into the mid upper 40s
for Friday Saturday.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Mainly MVFR ceilings were being observed across the area with a
gradual decrease in ceilings as the night GOES on. We will
likely have low end MVFR or ifr ceilings by Sunday morning. Ifr
ceilings will last during much of the day on Sunday. A weak
disturbance will bring scattered bands of light snow or a
rain snow mix later tonight and on Sunday. Visibilities will
drop between 1 and 2 miles late tonight and on Sunday with the
bands of light snow. Winds will be generally light 5 knots or
less and somewhat variable over the next 12 to 24 hours. A weak
surface trough will move into the area tonight with winds
shifting to a more northerly to northeasterly. South of the
boundary, winds will be kinda southeasterly to southerly.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely Sunday and Tuesday.

Marine
Winds and waves continue to slowly diminish subside in the wake of a
weak trough cold front but the small craft advisory will need to go
just a bit longer. That trough will buckle north across the lake as
low pressure moves up the ohio valley Sunday. This will be followed
by another trough Sunday night and high pressure Monday. Low
pressure moving across the great lakes will sweep a cold front
across the lake early Tuesday with a second system moving across
early wedneday. High pressure will be centered north of the lake for
thanksgiving. Small craft advisory will likely show up again for
Wednesday into Thursday. The Wednesday low has trended a little
stronger with a bit more cold air and have brought wind waves
up.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
lez147>149.

Synopsis... Sefcovic
near term... Griffin sefcovic
short term... Oudeman
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Griffin
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi91 min E 1 37°F 1026 hPa33°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 44 mi16 min NE 4.1 G 6 38°F 1024.4 hPa (+0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 54 mi28 min N 4.1 G 7 41°F1026.8 hPa

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH5 mi24 minN 48.00 miOvercast37°F34°F89%1026.2 hPa

Wind History from MFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W6W4W4SW5SW6SW4SW5SW7SW6SW4SW5SW5SW7SW7W5SW6W4S6SW3S4N3N3N4
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2 days agoNE8NE10NE8NE7E8E10E10E8E11E10E10E10E13E13E12E11SE11SE11SE8SE9SE8S6SE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.