Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Hampton Dunes, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:31PM Monday November 19, 2018 10:13 AM EST (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 3:54PMMoonset 3:31AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 926 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 926 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity today. A wave of low pressure moving along this boundary then passes through late tonight into Tuesday morning. An arctic front will then pass through Wednesday evening. High pres builds towards the region Thu and over the area Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Hampton Dunes, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.69     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191443
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
943 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity today. A wave
of low pressure moving along this boundary then passes through
late tonight into Tuesday morning. An arctic front then sweeps
across the tri state area Wednesday evening. Cold canadian high
pressure then builds in through the end of the week with the
potential for wet weather over the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The coastal front moved into eastern long island and then down
just east of the new jersey coast at 14z. Temperatures have
risen into the upper 40s and around 50 with the frontal
passage.

Also, the initial was was moving a little farther to the north
and precipitation was just about out of the area, moving
through putnam and northern fairfield counties, with light rain.

So adjusted probabilities to account for this. And then also
adjusted probabilities into this afternoon with the slight
delay with the onset of precipitation with the next wave
approaching from the southwest.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
The low pressure center moves through overnight into Tuesday morning
while slowly strengthening as a digging upper trough to our west
begins the process of becoming negatively tilted. Still some
synoptic-level lift around with a coupled jet structure shifting
into the region. Still think that the entire area eventually
sees pcpn tonight into Tuesday, but northern zones have overall
better chances and higher QPF potential. Pcpn probably shifts
east out of the tri-state area by noontime on Tuesday. Thermal
profiles support rain for the most part, but parts of the lower
hudson valley will probably see a mix of rain, sleet and snow.

Snow sleet accumulations will be mostly under an inch, but the
higher elevations of western orange county can pick up to around
an inch.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Nwp guidance is in good agreement across north america into thu
however solutions begin to deviate starting Thu night as a series of
upper troughs moving onshore from the eastern pacific traverse the
country. This is leading to vast differences in the forecast for the
weekend across the northeast.

Upper trough axis slides east of the area Tue eve with zonal
flow briefly returning into wed. Strengthening jet streak
diving out of north central canada tonight will result in the
development of vigorous shortwave energy and amplification of
the canadian vortex over hudson bay Tue tue night. While the
strongest dynamics will pass well to the north of the area on
wed, an arctic front will pass through the region Wed eve,
possibly triggering a few snow showers north and west of nyc.

There is also the possibility that once the front taps into the
moisture from LI sound and the atlantic that additional snow
showers could develop, however will need to wait 24 hours to see
if any of the hi res guidance picks up on this.

Windy conditions develop in the wake of the arctic front
continuing into thanksgiving day. H85 temps drop to -18 to -20c
by Thu morning. An unseasonably cold arctic airmass will remain
through Thu night before beginning to moderate on fri. Low
temperatures thanksgiving morning will mostly range in the teens
with lower 20s in the metro area. The combination of the winds
will make it feel like its in the single digits, teens in nyc
metro. High on Thu are not expected to reach the freezing mark,
with 20s areawide, highest near the coast. Wind chills will only
reach the teens across much of the area. The combination of
clear skies and diminishing winds Thu night will allow for ideal
radiational cooling conditions with the coldest temperatures of
the season thus far expected. Single digits are expected across
the interior and in the pine barrens of long island with teens
closer to the coast.

The cold canadian high will shift offshore on Fri allowing a
waa pattern to ensue with moderating temps. High Fri will still
remain 10-15 degrees below normal, but will be near normal on
sat as the next potential storm system moves into the area.

There is uncertainty on how the energy from the troughs moving
onshore out west interacts through the week which will
ultimately determine timing of pcpn. At this point is does
appear to be a liquid event.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
MVFR CIGS have meandered across the terminals as a weak boundary
remains across the region. Conditions will improve toVFR
area wide by afternoon and remain that way before conditions
fall back to MVFR this evening and overnight once again. Light
rain will move across the terminals overnight and Tuesday
morning. Conditions will remain MVFR or lower for tomorrow
morning's push.

Winds will remain light and veer from the southwest to the
northeast through the day.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 22 mi43 min Calm G 0 46°F 43°F44°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi73 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 53°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 35 mi83 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 53°F 53°F3 ft1020.8 hPa (+0.0)46°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi43 min N 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 53°F1020.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 38 mi49 min N 1 G 1.9 45°F 51°F1019.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 43 mi43 min 51°F 50°F1019.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi83 min SW 12 G 14 54°F 54°F2 ft1020.5 hPa (+0.0)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 49 mi43 min N 6 G 7 43°F 1021 hPa35°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi83 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 46°F 41°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY5 mi20 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast52°F45°F77%1020.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY9 mi17 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast52°F44°F75%1020.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi17 minSW 610.00 miOvercast52°F46°F80%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4N5E3SE3CalmNE4NE4E3NE3E3CalmCalmSE3S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3
1 day agoW9NW11NW13W14
G21
W14W7W8W6W6W5W3W5W5W6CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE63
2 days agoN18
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Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:31 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:34 AM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:45 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:52 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:56 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.12.52.82.82.521.40.80.40.30.61.21.82.32.72.82.621.30.70.200.3

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:19 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:29 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:54 AM EST     1.30 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:12 AM EST     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:51 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:17 PM EST     1.20 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:27 PM EST     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.61.21.31.20.80.1-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.3-1-0.60.10.91.21.10.90.2-0.6-1.2-1.5-1.5-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.