Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 4:41 AM   Moonset 6:26 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 402 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early this morning, then slight chance of showers late this morning and afternoon. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of tstms in the morning. Chance of showers.Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Fri night - N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 402 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure off nova scotia shifts farther out into the atlantic today as a cold front approaches the region from the west, passing through tonight. Behind it, weak high pressure briefly returns on Tuesday, before the front returns as a warm front Wednesday. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather through Friday.

FXUS61 KOKX 060621 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 221 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure centered near Nova Scotia and extending along the New England coast continues to weakens and slowly shift to the east overnight ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The front eventually tracks through the region late Monday into Monday night before stalling to our south. High pressure then briefly returns before the stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front Tuesday night. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather from Wednesday through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Showers across Long Island and southern Connecticut gradually wind down thru daybreak or so. Fog development possible back to the west with weak flow and residual moisture, will be keeping an eye on obs should more dense areas develop. Forecast remains on track.

An upper level ridge offshore continues to move into the Western Atlantic tonight as a shortwave tracks through the northeast, with the flow becoming more zonal across the region. Light rain showers will accompany the shortwave. At the low levels weak warm advection will be setting up late tonight. And while temperature may fall a couple of degrees into tonight, temperatures will be mainly steady with the cloud cover and precipitation. And then as the warm advection begins temperatures will hold nearly steady or rise a degree or two toward Monday morning. The CAMs handle the areal extent and timing of the precipitation and leaned toward those probabilities. And with the shortwave moving east precipitation will be tapering off and ending across much of the areas by Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A closed upper low will track through eastern Canada Monday into Monday night, and with the flow more zonal a weak cold front will be approaching during the day. While the flow is more progressive the latest trends have been to move the front through a little slower than previous forecasts. Continuing warm advection ahead of the cold front, and possibly some breaks in the cloud cover will allow for temperatures to rise into the lower 70s across much of the region with coastal areas remaining in the mid to upper 60s. While the NBM temperatures were several degrees higher than the MOS guidance, with the cloud cover have used a blend of the NBM with the MOS to have temperatures several degrees cooler. However, if there are more breaks in the cloud cover than temperatures inland may rise into the mid and upper 70s. Have also included the chance of isolated thunderstorms as surface based CAPE increases to few hundred J/kg and instability also increases. In addition the CAMs are showing a developing line of convection ahead of the cold front during the later half of the afternoon and into the early evening. The front does move through the region Monday night, and with the zonal flow stall south of the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure briefly noses in on Tuesday with a weakening ridge aloft before a stalled front to our south slowly lifts north as a warm front Tuesday night. Weak low pressure from the Great Lakes moves into the northeast on Wednesday in tandem with a mid-level shortwave helping the warm front advance through the area. This will also advect in more moisture with models indicating 1.25-1.45" PWATs. 850mb warm air advection will help increase instability and drive better development of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures on this day will be quite warm into the low-80s for NE NJ, and parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and the NYC metro and in the low-70s for eastern areas. Model sounding show decent shear, increasing CAPE aloft with many areas 1000 J/kg or greater, decent speed shear and increasing midlevel lapse rates. Gusty winds and small hail, therefore, may be possible with some thunderstorms. When this timeframe falls within the CAMs, we'll have a better idea of how great and exactly where in the CWA this risk will be.

A cold front will then pass through Wednesday night as the low exits to our east. High pressure will settle in again, briefly, with more of a zonal pattern aloft.

Another low pressure system approaches from the Ohio River Valley on Thursday, passing through on Friday as the upper-level trough starts to deepen over the region. Increased mid-level energy will arrive ahead of the low early Thursday. PWATs again increase ahead of the low around 1.3-1.5" based on the latest 12Z model guidance. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely for this. They are less likely to be as intense due to cooler air in the region.

A new low pressure system will develop to our south and east Saturday into Sunday as a larger troughing pattern aloft takes shape, leading to cooler temperatures settling in.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front slowly approaches from the west, passing through tonight.

IFR or lower through the morning push, improving to low-end MVFR this afternoon for some terminals. IFR/MVFR this evening improves to VFR late tonight. Iso TSRA late aftn/early evening, but not enough probability and coverage to mention in TAFs.

Light and variable winds through the morning push, possibly favoring NE to N the most. Winds shift more SW-W for the afternoon, but remaining under 10kt. Light N winds for late tonight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to timing of the changing of flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: Improving to VFR.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR late at night.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Thunderstorms possible mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday through Friday: Mainly MVFR. Showers likely, mainly in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Thursday, but ocean seas may rise to 5 ft Thursday night.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new moon Tuesday. Tide levels fell short of Stevens Institute NYHOPS guidance with the Saturday night high tide cycle, and most locations fall short of the minor flooding thresholds for the high tide cycle tonight. At most isolated spots over Southern Fairfield County may touch minor flooding thresholds.

Statements will be possible for Monday night's cycle for Southern Fairfield county, as well as for the south shore back bays of Nassau County.

The potential of a more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate advisories will probably hold off until Tuesday and Wednesday nights' cycles for these same areas as well as southern Queens. Statements for these 2 high tide cycles may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Moriches Inlet
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Mon -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 PM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     1.53 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:28 AM EDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:47 PM EDT     1.95 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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