Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday February 21, 2019 4:44 PM EST (21:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:11PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 323 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 323 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves east of the forecast waters early this evening. High pressure then builds in tonight and remains over the waters through Saturday morning. Another frontal system will impact the waters Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure then begins to build back into the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kokx 212044
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
344 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the west tonight through Friday
night, then moves offshore Saturday. A low pressure system
impacts the region Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure
returns Monday through Tuesday. Another low moves into the
region for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A cold frontal boundary will move through the region early this
evening. Gusts will be limited both ahead of the front and in
the cold advection behind the front as winds aloft will remain
rather weather, 20-25kt, and the cold advection will not be too
strong. Also, little moisture was with the front, so few if any
clouds will be associated with the passage.

The sub tropical high will remain off the southeast coast at
least through tonight, and even through Friday night. At the mid
and upper levels near zonal flow will begin to become
northwesterly as ridging builds into the central united states.

Increasing subsidence and dry mid and lower levels will limit
clouds, with only thin high cloudiness possible tonight. Winds
may decouple late overnight and the normally colder areas may
end up several degrees lower than currently forecast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
The sub tropical high will remain anchored off the southeastern
coast through the period with a building ridge moving into the
eastern states and eastern canada through Friday night. By early
Saturday morning the ridge axis is still expected to remain to
the west of the region. Much of the time will be nearly cloud
free as subsidence increases, with only high clouds expected.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Deep layer ridging gradually shifts eastward on Saturday ahead
of an approaching short wave. Deterministic models tend to
struggle with ridges of this strength, often showing too quick
of a break down eastward progression. As expected, the latest
model runs have slowed the progression of the high eastward
ahead of the approaching short wave, which in turn has delayed
the onset of precipitation for Saturday into Saturday night. The
main question initially will be how much cold air is able to
remain across the interior as the surface high moves offshore
and a warm front slowly approaches overnight. There may be at
least a few hours overnight as surface temperatures remain near
freezing for ice pellets and perhaps a light coating of freezing
rain as warm advection strengthens aloft. A non-diurnal trend
will occur though, with surface temperatures steadily rising
through the morning, effectively ending any threat of frozen
precipitation by the morning commute.

By Sunday, the area will be firmly in the warm sector with the
warm front to the north. Temperatures will be well above normal.

Trended slightly higher than guidance across areas to the north
and west of the city where s-sw flow will be predominant.

Otherwise, expect a period of heavy rainfall as deep layer
moisture rapidly increases through the morning, with pwat values
near the upper percentile values for time of year. There is
potential for a rumble of thunder too as colder temperatures
aloft associated with the short wave lead to elevated
instability, which may locally enhance rainfall rates. Refer to
the hydrology section for more information. By afternoon, a dry
slot aloft develops, with rain rates decreasing from west to
east, though light drizzle or rain will still be possible,
especially as the cold front moves through later in the day.

With cyclonic flow remaining and a strong short wave expected to
merge with the departing system, another secondary cold front
is expected to move through Sunday night, with a chance for
showers and snow showers.

Outside of aforementioned rain, there will be a significant
strengthening in winds as the system begins to depart, and cold
advection strengthens Sunday night into Monday night. At the
very least a wind advisory may be needed, though there is
potential for a few hours of winds bordering on high wind -
sustained 40 mph with gusts close to 58 mph, especially across
the east end with the departing low level jet Monday morning.

Thereafter, the northern stream becomes more dominant, with a
series of quick clipper systems possible, though timing and
placement remains uncertain. Temperatures are expected to settle
closer to climatological normals during that time frame.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure then slowly builds in from the west overnight.

Vfr through the period.

West winds decrease to 10 kt or less this evening. Winds turn to the
nw late tonight and Friday and should remain just right of 310
magnetic throughout much of the day.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi68 min NNW 7 G 12 51°F 36°F1012.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi56 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 49°F 37°F1013.1 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi54 min W 14 G 16 42°F 40°F7 ft1013.7 hPa (+0.8)38°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi54 min W 9.7 G 12 44°F 40°F6 ft1014.9 hPa (+0.5)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi56 min 43°F 38°F1012.8 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last
24hr
SE4
SE4
E3
G6
E3
NE4
NE4
NE4
SE6
G11
SE4
G9
E4
G8
NE4
NE7
NE8
G11
NE8
NE7
NE4
W6
NW5
NW6
G10
NW7
G11
N6
G10
NW3
NW4
G8
NW4
1 day
ago
NW11
N9
N8
G12
N9
N12
G16
N9
G14
N7
NE8
N7
G10
NE7
NE7
NE6
N7
NE5
G9
E3
NE4
G8
E4
E2
SW4
S5
G8
SW5
G8
SW5
G8
SW6
SE1
2 days
ago
NE17
G21
N14
G18
NW13
G24
NW11
G16
N14
G20
N13
G24
N18
G26
N18
G25
N13
G18
N12
NW5
G9
N9
G12
NW8
NW5
G8
NW7
N12
G16
N13
G17
N11
N15
G19
N16
NW11
NW13
G18
N13
G19
N10
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi48 minW 10 G 1510.00 miFair50°F32°F50%1013.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi51 minW 14 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds51°F32°F48%1013.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi48 minWNW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds51°F32°F48%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hrE4Calm336E443435NW15
G20
N6N7NW6W4W6W10W8
G19
W16
G23
W13
G21
NW16
G24
NW15
G23
W10
G15
1 day agoNW6
G15
NW3W3CalmNW3CalmN3N5N3NW4N4N4N45N5N3N5NE3CalmS3S6S333
2 days agoNW11
G20
NW13
G23
N11
G22
NW12
G23
NW9NW7NW12
G19
N13
G21
N17
G23
N13
G20
NW8
G16
NW11NW6N4N6N7NW10NW11
G16
NW13NW13NW12NW11
G17
NW9NW11
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:48 AM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EST     3.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:05 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:21 PM EST     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:36 PM EST     3.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.2-0.5-0.7-0.30.71.82.73.43.73.42.61.60.6-0.2-0.7-0.6012.12.93.43.42.92

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:17 AM EST     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:38 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     1.96 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:04 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:45 PM EST     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:46 PM EST     1.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
-1.6-2-1.9-1.3-0.60.41.41.91.91.40.6-0.5-1.4-2-2.1-1.7-1.1-0.20.91.71.81.61-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.