Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:09PM Friday March 24, 2017 10:10 AM EDT (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:48AMMoonset 3:30PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 732 Am Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from noon today to 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain early this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Light rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Light rain and drizzle likely...mainly in the morning. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the evening. Chance of light rain and drizzle in the evening... Then rain likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming se around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the daytime...then light rain likely in the evening. Chance of light rain after midnight.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 732 Am Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves across the region today. A back door cold front moves through Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Low pressure gradually approaches from the west Sunday...and moves across on Monday. Another frontal system may impact the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 241345
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
945 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis
A warm front moves across the region today, with an unsettled
weather pattern continuing through the weekend and into the
middle of next week. The warm front north of the region
retrogrades back into the region as a back door cold front
Saturday night and will be west of the area Sunday. The front
returns to the region Sunday night into Monday and then passes
east of the region Monday night. Another system approaches
Tuesday and moves across Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

High pressure returns thereafter.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures and dewpoints. Pops
were adjusted downward for the next few hours as mid deck of
clouds and dry air above surface will prevent initial
precipitation from reaching the ground. By the time the
precipitation fully moves into the region and starts reaching
the ground late this morning into early this afternoon, this
will be mainly rain as temperatures will have risen to above
freezing for most locations in the forecast region.

Extremely dry air evident on 00z soundings at okx and aly will be
very difficult to saturate initially this morning, so have delayed
the onset of precipitation. Isentropic lift associated with the
warm front and a passing short wave will eventually lead to the
development of light precipitation later this morning into the
early afternoon. Initially cold temperatures may support a brief
period of light snow, then perhaps ice pellets or minimal
accumulation of freezing rain as warm advection above the
surface rapidly increases amidst a strengthening low-level jet.

Eventually surface warm/moist advection will lead to above
freezing temperatures at all locations, and precipitation type
transitioning to rain. A warming trend is expected today into
Saturday, though high temperatures today will still be a few
degrees below climatological normals.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday/
Any precipitation will quickly taper off by evening as the short
wave moves east of the area and the warm front moves to the
north. Dry conditions will be short-lived overnight. By
morning, an upper low approaches from the west, increasing
forcing for ascent, and in combination with a back door cold
front subsequently increases precipitation chances through
Saturday evening.

Temperatures tonight will be nearly steady as warm advection
continues through the night amidst southwesterly flow. By
Saturday afternoon temperatures will finally be close to
climatological normals, though a cooling trend will be noted
late in the day from northeast to southwest as the back door
cold front begins to move through.

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/
Overall, an increasingly maritime airmass will be getting entrained
into the region from a persistent easterly flow. Rain will
ultimately be intermittent with some drizzle from time to time for
the remainder of the weekend. Not much of a diurnal temperature
range expected for the remainder of the weekend either. Patchy
fog is expected Saturday night through Sunday evening as
boundary layer becomes saturated from the continuous easterly
flow.

Rain continues Monday with some more synoptic forcing ahead of the
shortwave and surface frontal system moving in. The chances for rain
lower Monday night as these aforementioned features move east of the
region. Chances for rain are slow to drop off because of increasing
uncertainty in the model precipitation fields this timeframe. Rain
could linger longer early next week if the frontal system is slower.

Aloft, there will be a flattening ridge with the polar jet moving
farther north of the region Saturday night. The flattening ridge
axis moves across on Sunday. An embedded shortwave on the back end
of the ridge approaches Sunday night and moves across Monday. Brief
ridging then takes place Monday night into Tuesday. There will be
another shortwave moving across Tuesday night. A ridge to the west
then starts to build in thereafter for midweek.

Starting Saturday night, the surface features to note will be a
front retrograding southwest within the region and strengthening
high pressure building southeast from quebec into maine. The front
is a back door cold front. On Sunday, the high pressure area will be
moving into the gulf of maine and easterly flow will keep a cool
marine airmass. The front moves east back into the area Sunday night
into Monday with a weak low developing along the front. The flow
becomes more southerly. The front and low along it move east of the
region Monday night. Another frontal system approaches Tuesday
afternoon and moves across Tuesday night. High pressure starts to
build in thereafter for midweek.

Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/
High pressure will slide further offshore today. Meanwhile, a warm
front will lift to the north.

MainlyVFR through the TAF period. There is the potential for
some light precipitation late this morning into early
this afternoon. The best chances of precipitation will be at
kswf, where some ice pellets may briefly mix in at the very
start. Elsewhere, will use a tempo group to address any
rain/showers.

Light and variable winds increase out of the s-ssw this
morning to around or just over 10 kt. Gusts around 20 kt likely
this afternoon. Winds diminish overnight.

Conditions should remain fairly dry overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi56 min S 7.8 G 14 38°F 1 ft
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi41 min SSW 7 G 12 37°F 1031 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi41 min SSW 7 G 8 37°F 39°F1031.8 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi81 min 41°F 42°F3 ft1033.1 hPa (+0.0)29°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi81 min SSW 18 G 21 41°F 40°F3 ft1032.2 hPa (-0.5)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi56 min SSW 14 G 19 38°F 1 ft30°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi41 min 41°F 38°F1031.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi15 minS 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast42°F30°F65%1032.2 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi18 minSSW 12 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F28°F60%1032.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi15 minSSW 16 G 2410.00 miOvercast42°F30°F65%1031.6 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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NW11W7CalmW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S6S9S11
1 day agoNW20
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2 days agoNW4NW5CalmCalmS7W8SW8S7SW7SW7SW6SW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW9
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:39 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:09 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:14 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.52.12.62.82.92.621.40.80.40.20.40.91.62.22.62.72.62.21.510.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:06 AM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:28 AM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:38 PM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:46 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.30.41.11.31.310.2-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.1-0.7-0.10.71.21.210.5-0.3-1-1.4-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.