Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:06PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 2:41 PM EDT (18:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:42AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1237 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
This afternoon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1237 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will settle to the south of the waters and remain in control through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 181817
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
217 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, with a
prolonged period of fair weather. An approaching cold front will
bring a chance of rain for the beginning of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Minor updates this afternoon to reflect current wind trends with
a slightly slower arrival of the sea breeze. Otherwise forecast
remains on track.

Skies will be sunny as surface high pressure dominates and as an
upper trough passes east, with rising heights aloft. A
subsidence inversion between 875-900 mb will limit mixing, still
with warm air advection temps should reach the upper 60s and
lower 70s this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
As the upper ridge passes east, WAA aloft ahead of another
transient upper trough should lead to some high clouds late
tonight into Thu morning, with the sky remaining mostly clear
overall. Lows tonight should be mostly in the 40s and 50s, with
only some isold upper 30s well inland.

The subsidence inversion associated with the sfc high as it
sinks to the south will be a little stronger, with mixing only
to 900-925 mb. This despite plenty of sunshine will yield temps
only a little warmer than those expected for today, reaching
70-75, about 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
High pressure will continue to dominate through Saturday. The
high drifts offshore late Saturday, with return flow developing
for the second half of the weekend. This will produce an
increase in humidity across the area, particularly from long
island to connecticut. Large diurnal spreads of 20-25 degrees
through Saturday are likely due to the dry air mass. High
temperatures will remain several degrees above average.

Southwesterly flow will pick up Monday and Tuesday, as the area
starts to get squeezed from an approaching cold front to the
west, and high pressure over the atlantic. The potential exists
for the gulf of mexico to get tapped with this excess moisture
getting transported into the forecast area. Monday and Tuesday
could be quite humid as a result. As far as actual rain chances,
there are two main shots to contend with. The first is with the
approach of a residual convective boundary racing ahead of the
main system. Both the GFS and ECMWF have this feature. This has
the potential to produce locally heavy showers as it interacts
with the deepening moisture on Monday. As the main upper level
system gets here Tuesday or slightly later, this produces
significant lift and therefore a solid round of moderate to
heavy rain. Both the ECMWF and GFS again are pointing in the
same direction. The only limiting factor would be if the leading
boundary shunts the deeper moisture out to sea. This however in
not what the models are currently signaling.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
High pressure builds southeast of the region through the taf
period with a high confidence ofVFR continuing for most
terminals. Only exception would be kswf where there is a low
chance of some MVFR patchy fog overnight into daybreak Thursday.

The wind forecast is moderate confidence due some uncertainty
the exact timing of the sea breeze this afternoon and how far
north the sea breeze moves. Wind speeds stay 10 kt or less
through tonight with winds picking up Thursday afternoon to
around 10 kt, gusting to 15-20 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi41 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 62°F 62°F52°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi41 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 62°F 66°F1025.1 hPa (-1.2)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi41 min SSW 11 G 13 65°F1024.3 hPa (-1.3)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi51 min W 9.7 G 12 61°F 64°F3 ft1026 hPa (-0.9)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi56 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 49°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi41 min 64°F 64°F1024.6 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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S10
G14
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G12
SW7
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N9
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SW9
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G18
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G14
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G12
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G13
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G17
N8
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi45 minS 710.00 miFair71°F50°F47%1025.3 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi48 minVar 510.00 miFair68°F48°F49%1025.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi45 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds71°F46°F42%1025 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW33SW5S4CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4SW4W3W4W3W4W53CalmCalmS7
1 day agoN13
G23
N10N16
G21
NW11
G18
N9
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N13N10N11
G19
NW12N11
G16
N8N6N6N5N4CalmCalmN4N7N8
G15
N6N7NW6NW9
2 days agoS10
G17
SW12
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SW13S12
G20
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SW8W6NW14
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NW7W5NW8NW6NW11N10
G17
N9N14
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G22

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:09 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:31 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:44 PM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.200.61.42.333.53.52.92.21.30.50-00.41.222.73.23.32.92.21.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     1.69 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:58 AM EDT     -1.78 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:23 PM EDT     1.58 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.111.51.71.50.8-0.2-1-1.6-1.8-1.6-1.2-0.60.51.31.61.510.1-0.8-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.