Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:38PM Saturday February 24, 2018 4:58 AM EST (09:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:58PMMoonset 2:50AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 402 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Sunday afternoon...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt early, then nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain late this morning. Chance of rain early this afternoon, then rain late.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 402 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure tracks across the region late today into this evening. A warm front moves towards the region tonight, with a frontal system affecting the region Sunday. High pressure builds from the midwest Sunday night and remains in control through the middle of next week. A low pressure system may approach for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240908
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
408 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure tracks across the region late today into this
evening. A warm front moves towards the region tonight, with a
frontal system affecting the region Sunday. High pressure builds
from the midwest Sunday night and remains in control through
the middle of next week. A low pressure system may approach for
the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Near zonal upper flow today, with northern stream shortwave tracking
from ontario into quebec, and southern stream energy rotating around
southern ridging. At the surface weak high pressure over the region
this morning, will give way to approach of low pressure S from the
tennessee ohio valley along a stalled warm front. This will
spell a quick shot of rain from SW to NE this afternoon into
evening. Forcing with this system is not too strong, so
expecting overall a a light rain event.

Temps will run above seasonable with mild airmass in place,
generally upper 40s to lower 50s. If several hours of sunshine
are experienced this morning, temps could rise into the lower
to mid 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Phasing sub-tropical and pac jet energy will lift towards the great
lakes and NE us tonight into Sunday, with a strong mid-level
shortwave tracking through the great lakes tonight into Sunday
morning. At the surface, strengthening low pressure will take a
similar track, eventually stacking under closing upper energy across
northern ontario by late Sunday. It trailing cold front will
approach on Sunday with warm front lifting towards the region
tonight into Sunday, and signal for triple point low tracking
over nyc LI or just south Sunday aft early Sun evening.

Expect increasing likelihood for rain tonight as wcb and
divergent upper flow transport and lift a +3-4 std pwat airmass
into the region. This rain will be moderate to heavy late
tonight into Sunday as moisture lift is focused to the north of
the warm front and in vicinity of the triple pt low late
tonight through Sunday. 1 to 1 1 2 inches of rainfall likely
areawide, with locally higher amounts from orographic
enhancement.

Cold air damming and evaporational cooling early Sunday morning
will likely have temps falling into the mid 30s across interior
valleys, perhaps localized lower 30s. At this point threat for
any freezing rain looks to be low, brief and localized.

Otherwise, temps will likely be hard pressed to rise into the
lower 40s across the interior, particularly valleys, on Sunday,
while coastal areas should be able to rise into the mid to upper
40s. S LI could flirt with 50 degrees if warm front can lift
north.

Shortwave energy pivots NE Sunday evening with the triple pt low and
cold front pushing east, and rainfall tapering off.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
The CONUS pattern of troughing in the west and ridging east of
the rockies looks to continue into next week. The upper pattern
then appears to transition mid to late week next week as a
closed low pres system moves onshore in california early,
continues into the plains mid week, and then possibly to the
east coast by late week. Uncertainty abounds in the evolution of
this upper energy as the week progresses.

In terms of sensible weather, dry weather returns Sun night as
low pres departs and high pres builds from the midwest. The high
will remain in control through the middle of next week,
resulting in a continuation of above normal temperatures. Rain
chances will begin to increase Thu as a WAA pattern ensues, although
due to the aforementioned uncertainty in the upper pattern, precip
could very well hold off until Thu night. Predictability is low on p-
type this far out, but lack of cold air supply would favor liquid vs
frozen at this point.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will build to the north today as a front stalls to
the south. The front will lift back toward the area as a warm
front late today into tonight as the high pulls away.

Still seeing ifr conds at kjfk kewr kgon and MVFR elsewhere. Drier
air should start moving into the area, early this morning, with
conds improving toVFR at about the same time sfc winds shift
from wsw to wnw.

Light rain with ocnl MVFR CIGS may be possible late this afternoon,
but more widespread MVFR conds appear more likely after 00z.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday
Late tonight and Sunday Rain with ifr conds. E-se winds 10-15kt
with g20-25kt.

Sunday night Chance of rain with MVFR conds mainly kisp kgon,
otherwiseVFR.

Monday through Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions are expected through this evening with weak
high pressure moving across the region.

Easterly winds will increase late tonight into Sunday morning,
with widespread SCA conditions expected. Potential for a period
of marginal gale gusts during this time on the ocean, with seas
building to 6 to 10 ft.

Winds subside Sun night with high pressure building in, but sca
ocean seas will likely take till Monday to subside.

Sub SCA conds thereafter with high pressure building from the
west.

Hydrology
Rainfall late today through Sunday is expected to produce
around 1 to 1 1 2 inches of rain, much of it on Sunday. There
could be some locally higher amounts, especially in any areas
of orographic lift.

With saturated grounds, minor poor drainage flooding is
possible on Sunday.

Tides coastal flooding
Easterly SCA winds will likely result in 1 to 1 1 2 ft surge and
3 to 4 ft waves into western LI sound, which may result in some
localized minor flood wave splashover with Sunday morning high
tide.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am Sunday to 1 pm est Monday for
anz330-335-338-340-345-355.

Gale watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
anz350-353.

Synopsis... Nv
near term... Nv
short term... Nv
long term... 24
aviation... Goodman
marine... Nv
hydrology... Nv
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi59 min W 9.7 G 12 39°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi41 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 39°F1019.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi47 min WSW 4.1 G 6 40°F 37°F1019 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi69 min WSW 18 G 21 41°F 42°F3 ft1019.9 hPa (-1.3)41°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi69 min W 12 G 14 43°F 42°F3 ft1021.3 hPa (-0.5)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi41 min 41°F 39°F1019.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE5
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N7
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N8
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N6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi63 minWSW 54.00 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1020 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi66 minSW 43.00 miFog/Mist40°F39°F100%1020.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi63 minW 54.00 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm3Calm544--E56E45SE4CalmCalmCalmNW3W4W5SW5W7W7W5W5
1 day agoN12
G19
N9
G20
N9
G16
5N545554Calm45N5N6N3NE335455NE5NE3
2 days agoSW8SW10SW10
G16
SW8SW6SW12SW10SW11SW10SW8SW6
G18
SW11SW7SW6SW6SW6N7N10N8N5N9N11N11
G16
N11

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:54 AM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:49 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:44 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:35 PM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:47 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.932.82.21.610.60.30.20.51.11.72.22.52.52.21.610.50.20.10.411.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:26 AM EST     1.48 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:49 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:48 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:56 PM EST     1.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:02 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:24 PM EST     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.41.10.6-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.50.10.81.10.90.60-0.7-1.1-1.4-1.4-0.9-0.40.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.