Friday, September22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:48PM Friday September 22, 2017 2:12 AM EDT (06:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:56AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1053 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Friday through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers early in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1053 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical storm jose will remain nearly stationary southeast of long island for the next several days, become post-tropical on Friday if not sooner, then dissipate this weekend. High pressure build late Friday into Saturday then remains over the region into early next week. Hurricane maria is expected to pass offshore of the east coast and the move farther offshore mid to late next week as a cold front approaches. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on jose and maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220544
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
144 am edt Fri sep 22 2017

Synopsis
Tropical storm jose will remain nearly stationary southeast of
long island for the next several days, become post-tropical on
Friday if not sooner, then dissipate this weekend. High pressure
build late Friday into Saturday then remains over the region
into early next week. Hurricane maria is expected to pass
offshore of the east coast and the move farther offshore mid to
late next week as a cold front approaches. The cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High
pressure builds in behind the front Thursday. Please refer to
national hurricane center products for more details on jose and
maria.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Forecast is generally on track. Pcpn moving in from the east
slightly faster so have adjusted timing of increasing pops a
bit.

Otherwise... TS jose will remain stationary well SE of eastern
long island. The tightest pressure gradient between jose and the
building high will reside across the twin forks of long island
and southeast connecticut tonight, where wind gusts 25-30 mph
are still possible tonight. Mid deck shield progressing
westward across LI and ct, with a few bands of showers moving
through SE ct and eastern long island periodically overnight.

Areas from nyc and north west should remain dry.

Lows tonight will range from the lower mid 60s along the coast
and in nyc metro, to 55-60 inland.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
With better daytime mixing winds out east should be a little
stronger, with gusts 30-35 mph through much of the day.

Otherwise sct-numerous morning showers over long island and
southern ct should diminish in coverage through the afternoon.

High temps on Fri should be a little lower than those of today,
ranging from the lower mid 70s across most of ct long island,
to the lower 80s in nyc NE nj.

Skies should gradually clear from west to east Fri night,
becoming mostly clear form nyc north west and ptcldy over
western long island ct, but remaining overcast out east. Lows
fri night should have similar range to those expected for
tonight, from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Dangerous rip currents will continue at the ocean beaches on
Friday.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Weakening post-tropical jose lingers about 200-300 miles
offshore of montauk Saturday and becomes a remnant low Sunday,
then dissipates. As jose is expected to drift slightly westward
a few showers may brush the far eastern areas, mainly
southeastern connecticut and the twin forks of long island,
Saturday morning. Meanwhile an upper ridge and surface high will
be building into the northeast Saturday and remain across the
region into early next week.

The upper ridge and surface high weaken Tuesday into Wednesday
as a northern stream long wave trough digs into great lakes and
northern plains into Thursday. Meanwhile maria will be moving
offshore of the east coast. There are timing difference with the
timing of a cold front expected to move through Wednesday night
into early Thursday at this time. The upper trough and surface
cold front is expected to move maria farther offshore mid to
late next week. Please refer to national hurricane center
products for more details on maria. Once again there will be
increasing beach hazards with building surf and the possibility
of dangerous rip currents in advance of maria. There is also
uncertainty with how much precipitation will accompany both
maria and the cold front. At this time will be keeping
probabilities at slight chance to low end chance.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
Tropical storm jose will meander off the southern new england
coast today.

GenerallyVFR. Kgon may see a periods of MVFR through the taf
period, especially in areas of showers.

Occasional gusts to 20 kt this morning, possibly 30 kt at kgon.

Gusts increase and become more widespread after sunrise. Expect
gusts between 20-30 kt, with the highest across the eastern
terminals.

Outlook for 06z Saturday through Tuesday
Friday night Vfr. Gusts gradually subsiding.

Saturday-Tuesday Vfr. Wind becoming n-ne 10-20 kt. A few
higher gusts possible.

Marine
Sca conds will continue for the ocean and the eastern waters late
tonight into Fri morning as winds increase, continuing all day
fri. This should also bring SCA conditions for the south shore
bays. Most places will gusts to 25-30 kt, but think a small
portion of the easternmost ocean zone SE of montauk could see a
brief period of minimal tropical storm conditions or close to it
fri morning. In collaboration with NHC and box decided to stick
with SCA for the zone but mention the window for stronger
conditions.

Long period easterly swells will likely continue on the ocean
waters into the weekend.

Saturday winds across the eastern ocean waters may be around small
craft as gusty winds from weakening jose impact there area. There is
uncertainty as to the strength and westward extent of the gusty
winds. Then winds will be below small craft levels through the
middle of next week. Across the remainder of the waters winds and
gusts remain below small craft levels. Rough seas and swells will be
affecting the ocean waters with small craft seas expected Saturday
through Wednesday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems anticipated through the middle of next
week.

Tides coastal flooding
Ts jose will remain nearly stationary a couple hundred miles se
of eastern long island, with ekman forcing keeping elevated
water levels along the coast despite offshore winds.

This will have water levels peaking with the Friday morning
high tide cycle, resulting in widespread minor coastal flooding
in the south shore bays of western LI and nyc and localized
minor elsewhere. There is a low probability of localized
moderate coastal flooding along the south shore back bays of
long island Fri am.

Water levels should gradually drop Friday night into the
weekend, with any minor flooding localized to the most
vulnerable south shore bay locales Friday night.

Rough surf will also continue into the weekend, but dune
erosion from this point on should be localized.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk through this evening for nyz075-080-081-
178-179.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 am this morning to 1 pm edt
Saturday for nyz075-080-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for anz330-340-
350-353-355.

Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to 6 pm edt this
evening for anz345.

Synopsis... Goodman met
near term... Goodman
short term... Goodman
long term... Met
aviation... Bc
marine... Goodman met
hydrology... Goodman met
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi43 min N 16 G 23 70°F 70°F54°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi43 min NNE 19 G 23 70°F 2 ft64°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi43 min NNE 11 G 17 69°F 73°F1015.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi43 min NNE 9.9 G 17 69°F 72°F1015.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi83 min 65°F 65°F9 ft1012.3 hPa (-1.1)58°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi83 min N 19 G 25 70°F 67°F8 ft1014.4 hPa (-0.9)47°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi43 min 67°F 67°F1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi77 minN 12 G 2110.00 miOvercast71°F51°F49%1014.9 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi80 minN 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast69°F48°F49%1014.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi77 minN 14 G 2410.00 miA Few Clouds69°F51°F53%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN11
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2 days agoNE7NE7N6N9
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
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Fri -- 02:44 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:01 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:16 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.60-0.10.31.122.73.33.53.32.61.810.300.20.91.72.433.23.12.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:16 AM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:15 AM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:41 PM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:37 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:46 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-1.4-1.8-1.7-1.2-0.60.31.31.61.61.20.4-0.5-1.2-1.7-1.8-1.4-0.9-0.20.81.41.41.20.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.