Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:09PM Monday March 25, 2019 8:49 PM EDT (00:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:50AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 742 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Tonight..Light and variable winds, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of light rain this evening.
Tue..N winds around 15 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 742 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build across the region through mid week, then move offshore on Thursday. A weak cold front passing by early Friday will be followed by a warm front moving north early Saturday. A stronger frontal system will approach for the late weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 252354
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
754 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the region through mid week,
then move offshore on Thursday. A weak cold front passing by
early Friday will be followed by a warm front moving north
early Saturday. A stronger frontal system will approach for the
late weekend, moving offshore on Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Updates made mainly to dewpoints and pops early this evening.

Latest obs show a tight dewpoint gradient in the vicinity of
coastal ct and the lower hudson valley. Dewpoints in mid-upper
20s near i-95 in ct while just 10 miles north, some dewpoints
are in the single digits. This drier air will slowly push down
south through the rest of the night as high pressure builds in
from the north. Based on latest surface obs and radar, best
chances of any rainfall early this evening, which will be
light, are across the coastal parts of nyc and union county.

Will go with a dry forecast north of nyc.

Skies should then become mostly clear overnight with brisk n
winds developing. Low temps should range from from the lower 30s
in nyc and immediate surrounding areas, to the 20s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Clear and dry as high pressure builds across. High temps in the
40s on tue, and then low temps a little colder than those fcst
for tonight especially outside the metro area, where some upper
teens are possible, will be about 5-8 degrees below the seasonal
avg. A brisk N flow gusting to 20-25 mph daytime Tue will
diminish at night, becoming light variable outside the metro
area.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
A weak pac shortwave approaches the region Wednesday night, with
a southern stream shortwave moving offshore. Thereafter,
generally zonal upper flow through the week across the north
central and northeastern CONUS between cross CONUS pac jet and
polar jet rotating around large polar upper low sliding
through hudsons bay and northern quebec.

At the surface, canadian high pressure will be in control on Wednesday,
moving east on Thursday. A weakening cold front approaches
Thursday night, with perhaps some showers. Uncertainty on how
far south this front sags for Friday, before heading north as a
warm front Saturday. Overall not a lot of forcing with this
feature, but will play a role in cloud cover and temps forecast.

Overall a moderating trend during this period, from near
seasonable on Wednesday to potentially 10 degrees above
seasonable (lower to mid 60s) away from the coast on Friday.

Temps along the coast will likely remain near seasonable (50-55
degrees).

Next trough of note approaches the NE us late this weekend early
next week, as shortwave energy digging down the backside of the
polar upper low interacts with pac energy shearing into the
central plains. At this timescale, timing and amplitude
differences exist with the approaching trough, resulting in
sensible weather impacts differences with frontal system
affecting the region Sun mon. Strong WAA ahead of this front
likely sat, with potential for temps into the 70s across areas
west of hudson, and north west portions of nyc metro, while
along the coast temps would likely stay in the 50s. Frontal
passage during Sun Mon would bring potential for mild temps and
showers along ahead of front, and shot of CAA in its wake with
drying conditions and return to near or slightly below
seasonable temps.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
A weak low passes to the south of long island early this
evening. High pressure then builds to west and north through the
taf forecast period.

Vfr through the TAF period. There may be a brief shower or
sprinkle through 01z at the nyc metro terminals.

Winds light and variable to light N to NE will become northerly
less than 10 kt early this evening. Winds will increase to 10 to
15 kt late. Then become gusty Tuesday morning, with gusts up to
20 kt. Gusts subside by early Tuesday evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi37 min 46°F 40°F1017.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi37 min 43°F 43°F1018.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi59 min SSE 9.7 G 12 41°F 41°F2 ft1017.6 hPa (+0.0)37°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi59 min WNW 1.9 G 3.9 43°F 41°F3 ft1018.4 hPa (+0.5)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi37 min 41°F 41°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast46°F19°F35%1017 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi56 minN 010.00 miOvercast43°F27°F53%1018.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast47°F26°F44%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8SW8SW7SW4W4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N4N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:16 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:08 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:43 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.41.50.70.1-0.20.10.71.52.12.62.92.82.31.50.80.30.10.20.71.52.22.73.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:25 AM EDT     -1.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     1.34 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:41 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     1.55 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.3-0.7-1.3-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.8-0.10.81.31.31.10.5-0.4-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.20.71.41.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.