Thursday, July27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday July 27, 2017 8:51 PM EDT (00:51 UTC) Moonrise 10:21AMMoonset 10:57PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 653 Pm Edt Thu Jul 27 2017
.gale watch in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms late this evening and overnight.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then light rain likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Light rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of light rain in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 653 Pm Edt Thu Jul 27 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front slowly enters the area tonight and becomes stationary on Friday. Low pressure developing late Friday into Friday night over the ohio valley to the mid atlantic coast will pass slowly to the south Saturday into Saturday night. Weak low pressure lingers south of long island along a stalled front for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 280031
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
831 pm edt Thu jul 27 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front moves across the region from central new york
overnight before stalling just south of long island on Friday.

Waves of low pressure develop along the front Friday night into
early next week. By mid next week, the low pressure area moves
farther offshore with weak high pressure building in from the
west. Weak high pressure remains over the area until Thursday
next week when a cold front approaches from the northwest.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Only patchy light showers are ongoing in response to weak warm
advection as a subtle upper wave passes aloft. The weak cold
front is still northwest of the area and will pass through
overnight. As the previous forecaster mentioned, there has not
been much lightning this evening despite deterministic model
suggestion of 500-1000 j kg instability. Satellite imagery as
of 23z indicates some convective appearance to the cells
developing ahead of the cold front as a stronger vorticity
maximum moves southeastward towards the area. Kept a slight
chance of thunder for now although pending what the 00z okx
sounding shows, this may be removed in the next update.

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday
The front settles just south of long island on Friday and have
gone with a dry, but cloudy, forecast. Over running sets up
Friday evening as cyclogenesis begins as shortwave over the
great lakes closes off. This cause rapid deepening of the
surface low over the delmarva. The upper dynamics cause the
surface low to sag south as wave "spin off" to the east.

Main potential hazard is heavy rain. Having looked at a lot of
guidance, we have sided with the idea that the heaviest rain
stays south of our region and will not issue a flood watch - at
least not yet. In fact just saw the 15z SREF and amounts are
down.

Hwo (hazardous weather outlook) continue to highlight for the
potential for flooding - but the potential is still in the low
chance level.

See hydro section to see rainfall forecast amounts.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
The upper level trough remains over much of the eastern u.S. For the
remainder of the weekend. The trough axis will slowly move east
during this time but will still be west of the local region. The
local region will be near the inflection point of this trough. The
upper level jet stream affiliated with the trough will be situated
generally from the western atlantic waters not that far offshore
northeast through nova scotia. This will help sustain the low
pressure along the stalled front at the surface. The region will
remain in a northeast flow as a result. The pressure gradient will
still be relatively tight Saturday night, making for gusty winds
mostly between 30 and 40 mph. Winds decrease Sunday into Sunday
night as low pressure becomes weaker south of long island, hence
weakening the pressure gradient. The winds finally switch in
direction mid to late next week as the upper level flow flattens and
low pressure moves farther offshore. More typical southwest flow
will come into place during this timeframe with weak high pressure
building in from the west. A cold front approaches from the
northwest next Thursday.

In terms of weather, cooler than normal temperatures and rain will
still be in the forecast Saturday night and Sunday, albeit mostly
light rain. Higher chances for the light rain will be across long
island and offshore while lower chances will be farther north. Rain
could even linger especially across long island going into Monday
and Tuesday of next week as some models convey a retrograding
movement back to the west of the offshore low. There are even some
slight increases in elevated instability, making for a slight chance
of thunderstorms on the east end of long island Monday night into
early Tuesday. Drier conditions and temperatures closer to normal
return Tuesday and more so for mid to late next week.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
A weakening cold front slowly crosses the area into Friday
morning. Low pressure begins to develop over the central
appalachians by early Friday afternoon, then tracks into the
mid-atlantic states by Friday evening.

BecomingVFR throughout at city terminals this evening, with
ceilings lifting above 3500 ft. Could see some patchy MVFR fog
early Friday morning at kteb khpn (with a chance of ifr at khpn),
otherwiseVFR at city terminals after midnight tonight.

Elsewhere, mainly MVFR conditions (with pockets ofVFR) become
MVFR throughout by midnight. Ifr conditions are probable at
ct long island terminals and kswf overnight. Conditions improve
toVFR everywhere by around 12z Friday (at tad later at kgon kswf).

Winds become light and variable throughout this evening. Ne-e
winds at under 10kt develop mid morning-early afternoon.

Exception is at kgon where a southerly seabreeze is expected by
around midday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi51 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 76°F71°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi51 min SSW 12 G 14 72°F 1 ft71°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi51 min SW 8.9 G 11 72°F 74°F1012.4 hPa (-1.2)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi51 min SW 4.1 G 6 1011.6 hPa (-1.2)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi61 min 71°F 69°F3 ft1013.6 hPa (-0.3)68°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi61 min SSW 16 G 18 73°F 74°F3 ft1012.3 hPa (-0.8)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi66 min S 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 70°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi55 minS 710.00 miOvercast74°F70°F88%1012.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi58 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F66°F82%1013.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi55 minS 710.00 miOvercast74°F69°F85%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6S6SW7S9S11S10S11S10S6S5SW5S7
1 day agoCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmN5N655SE8SE86SE7SE8S7S8S5
2 days agoN53343N4NE3CalmCalmCalm3N334N5NE43N54N5N5N3NE4N3

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:30 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:56 AM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:07 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.821.10.4-0.1-0.10.31.11.92.63.13.332.31.50.80.30.20.51.21.92.63.13.3

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:56 AM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:13 AM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:18 PM EDT     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.7-0.2-1.1-1.7-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.50.41.21.51.410.2-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.5-1.1-0.60.111.41.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.