Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:09PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 9:29 AM EDT (13:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:50PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 732 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 732 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds over the region today before sliding offshore tonight. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move across the area Thursday evening, followed by a cold front Thursday night. High pressure returns to the region for Friday. A frontal system will pass through the region Saturday into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221131
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
731 am edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds over the region today before sliding
offshore tonight. A warm front will approach on Thursday and
move across the area Thursday evening, followed by a cold front
Thursday night. High pressure returns to the region for Friday.

A frontal system will pass through the region Saturday into
Sunday. A stationary front will set up south of the region
Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through Monday night.

High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A strong ridge continues to build into the region from the west
through today. The ridge was keeping cirrus from spilling over,
and high clouds will likely be delayed from moving into the
region. Only minor adjustments were made to the winds,
temperatures and dew points through this morning.

High pressure remains over the region today. It will be dry and
comfortable with just high level clouds as the ridge axis
remains to our west.

Light northwest winds will turn southwesterly during the day,
with sea breezes developing along the immediate coast. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
The upper ridge will begin to flatten tonight as surface high
pressure moves offshore and a weak wave approaches. Winds will
continue to turn more southerly as the high slides east,
allowing a return to warm air advection and increasing clouds.

Temperatures Wednesday night will be close or a few degrees
warmer than normal.

A few showers are possible Thursday morning associated with
weak shortwave energy but with subsidence associated with the
offshore high, the best chances for showers will be across new
jersey and the lower hudson valley.

A warm front will then slowly lift out of the ohio valley
Thursday afternoon and with strong southerly flow, dewpoints
will rise into the 50s to lower 60s by late afternoon. Daytime
highs will rise into the 70s away from the coast, and in the
upper 60s across long island and southern connecticut.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
An upper level northern stream shortwave will be moving into a
sub tropical ridge centered across the southeastern states
Thursday night with a surface warm front passing across the
region Thursday evening. The area will become warm sectored with
dew points rising into the lower 60s, mainly inland. Then with
the shortwave passing to the north Thursday night a cold front
will drop south, and through the area. With some destabilization
and low CAPE of 300 to 500 j kg, along with a 40-50kt jet
passing through, scattered thunderstorms are possible with the
potential for isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly across
northeastern new jersey and into the lower hudson valley. A few
stronger storms may move into southwestern connecticut and into
western long island, however the storms will be moving into a
more stable environment. Gusty winds will be the main threat
into Thursday evening and added this enhanced wording.

The upper shortwave moves through the ridge by 12z Friday and
heights will begin to rise as the sub tropical ridge builds back
into the great lakes and upper midwest.

Some uncertainty with the timing and placement of the next
shortwave moving through the northern stream develops Saturday
into Sunday as this energy will be associated with an upper
closed low opening and moving out of the west coast Friday. This
shortwave will also be moving into the eastern sub tropical
ridge, and may move more to the north than currently forecast.

So will have slight and chance probabilities into Sunday night.

Again, the ridge builds back into the area into Wednesday before
a deeper shortwave moves out of the west and potentially phases
with a northern stream shortwave, bringing a chance of
precipitation late Wednesday. At this time, with high
uncertainty as to timing and placement will leave next Wednesday
dry.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure builds into the region thru Wednesday.

Vfr through the TAF period.

Light NW winds mainly around 10 kt this mrng. North winds
increase slightly 10-15 kt thru 14z. Winds eventually shift to
the south, due to high pressure passing southeast and seabreezes
developing. Light and vrb or SW flow tngt, with SW flow
increasing thru the day on thu.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi74 min NNW 9.7 G 12 60°F 63°F42°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi47 min NNW 5.1 G 8 60°F 54°F1022.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi41 min NE 13 G 17 59°F 58°F1022.8 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi39 min NNW 12 G 16 56°F 53°F2 ft1022.2 hPa43°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi39 min WNW 9.7 G 12 58°F 55°F1 ft1023.2 hPa (+2.2)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi41 min 55°F 56°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi33 minNNW 710.00 miFair61°F37°F41%1023 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi36 minNNW 12 G 2010.00 miFair62°F37°F41%1022.9 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi33 minN 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F39°F41%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW9S9S9S11S11S10S12S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:08 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:26 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:09 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:38 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.70.90.3-00.20.71.422.52.82.72.31.71.10.60.40.511.72.42.93.23.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:37 AM EDT     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:44 AM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:48 PM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:55 PM EDT     1.45 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.30.61.11.210.5-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.7-0.20.61.31.51.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.