Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guttenberg, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:49PM Sunday September 24, 2017 2:51 AM EDT (06:51 UTC) Moonrise 11:00AMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1236 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Overnight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1236 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. The remnant low of jose will meander and weaken southeast of long island into early next week, as high pressure slowly builds from the west. High pressure over the region weakens Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west, and hurricane maria is forecast to move to off the carolina coast. A cold front will pass through Wednesday night into Thursday as maria tracks to the northeast. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on maria. A cold front will approach from the west late on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guttenberg, NJ
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location: 40.78, -73.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240530
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
130 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
The remnant low of jose will dissipate well to the southeast
over the next couple of days, while high pressure to the
northwest will be in control through the first half of next
week. High pressure over the region weakens Tuesday into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west, and
hurricane maria is forecast by the national hurricane center to
move to off the carolina coast. A cold front will pass through
Wednesday night into Thursday as maria tracks to the northeast.

High pressure builds in from the west Friday. A weak trough of
low pressure may affect the area next Saturday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Fog bank has been advancing towards the area this evening from
the east. Widespread dense fog on CAPE cod and the islands to
the south as well as block island. Narre and hrrr has some
indication of low clouds and fog impacting the twin forks of
long island and possibly new london county, but 10-15 kt of wind
at the top of the boundary layer of a very dry layer may start
to break this up and it won't be as bad here. Have started with
an sps for these areas mentioning locally dense fog and the mid
shift can monitor and upgrade to an dense fog advsy if needed.

Otherwise... Have made slight adjustments to the hourly t TD to
account for this.

Elsewhere... Clear tonight with light and vrb winds and
radiational fog in the outlying areas and valleys. Lows will
range from the lower 70s in nyc, to the 60s most elsewhere, to
the upper 50s in the valleys well N W of nyc and in the long
island pine barrens, per the cooler of the GFS nam MOS numbers
in consideration of radiational cooling.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Monday
Expect a continuation of unseasonably warm and dry conditions
as heights aloft continue to rise, with sunny skies. Both mos
guidance and GFS nam mixing up to 857 mb in the afternoon, plus
a 2-3 more degrees, support high temps from the mid 80s to lower
90s, except for the immediate coast where highs will be in the
lower 80s. See climate section for potential records.

Swells from distant hurricane maria will produce a moderate rip
current risk.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
The longwave pattern will continue to be highly amplified
Monday with a strong upper ridge over the eastern states, with
a trough across the western states. Dry weather and warm
conditions will remain in place Monday and Tuesday. The eastern
ridge begins to weaken Tuesday into Tuesday night as a shortwave
digs into the northern plains and western great lakes, and
maria moves to east of the carolina coast. This shortwave is not
as amplified as previous forecasts have indicated, however, the
shortwave does move quickly through the northern stream.

Another shortwave does rotate into the long wave trough toward
the end of the week. The upper trough and surface cold front
will lift maria to the northeast and out to sea for the end of
the week. The area will return to more seasonal levels, and
possibly to below normal by next weekend. There is considerable
uncertainty with the second shortwave and a weak surface trough
moving into the ridge. At this time will have slight chance
probabilities for Saturday.

Refer to the latest advisories from the national hurricane center
for the latest forecast information on maria.

Due to long period swells from maria, there will be a prolonged
period of rough surf at the ocean beaches, with the likelihood of a
high risk of rip currents.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure builds in from the west into tonight.

Highly likelyVFR through the TAF period. There is a very low
chance of MVFR-ifr ceilings and or visibilities at kgon early
this morning and an even lower, but non-zero chance at kisp as
well early this morning. There is also a low chance for MVFR fog
towards sunrise at kswf.

Light and variable winds become n-ne at under 10 kt by mid
morning at all terminals except kswf, where this should occur by
early afternoon. Seabreezes are then expected at all terminals
but kswf, starting around midday at ct terminals, early
afternoon kjfk kisp and mid-late afternoon elsewhere. Light and
variable winds return at all terminals late this
afternoon early this evening.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Late tonight-Monday Most likelyVFR. There is a low chance
for MVFR-ifr conditions at eastern terminals and kswf late
tonight early Monday morning.

Monday night-Thursday MVFR or lower conditions and scattered
showers are possible.

Marine
Fog bank has moved into the eastern ocean waters from the east
late this evening. Uncertain how far west it will progress
overnight, but have issued an mws to account for areas of fog
with vsbys between 1 and 3 nm, with some locally dense spots.

Have also extended the SCA for hazardous ocean seas from fire
island inlet to montauk through 22z Mon as buoy 25 has been
holding right around 5 ft. They may end up falling a bit more
overnight, but should come back up during the day Sunday due to
swells from distant hurricane maria. Have also issued a SCA from
sandy hook to fire island inlet from 00z to 22z Mon as maria's
swells should start to impact this area Sunday night. No changes
to waters E of moriches inlet.

Long period swells are expected to remain on the ocean waters
Monday and through the upcoming week. A small craft advisory
will likely be needed through the period.

Winds on the ocean waters remain below small craft advisory
levels until Thursday night when gusts may approach 25 kt on a
northwest flow behind a cold front.

Across the remainder of the waters winds and gusts are expected
to remain below advisory levels Monday through Thursday night.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next
week.

Climate
The following are record high temperatures for Sunday
september 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature.

Record high temperature forecast high temperature
----------------------------- -------------------------
central park... ... ..89 (1959) 91
laguardia... ... ... ..89 (1959) 90
kennedy... ... ... ... .88 (1970) 88
islip... ... ... ... ... 83 (2009) 85
newark... ... ... ... ..92 (1959) 93
bridgeport... ... ... .87 (1959) 86
the following are record high minimum temperatures for Sunday
september 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature.

Record high minimum temperature forecast minimum temperature
------------------------------- ----------------------------
central park... ... ..74 (1970) 71
laguardia... ... ... ..73 (1970) 71
kennedy... ... ... ... .71 (1970) 69
islip... ... ... ... ... 69 (1970) 65
newark... ... ... ... ..74 (1970) 68
bridgeport... ... ... .71 (2011) 67

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 8 pm this evening
to 6 pm edt Monday for anz355.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Monday
for anz350-353.

Synopsis... Goodman met
near term... Goodman met
short term... Goodman
long term... Met
aviation... Maloit
marine... Goodman met
hydrology... Met
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 6 mi51 min 74°F 71°F1017.6 hPa (+0.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi51 min N 7 G 7 75°F 1017.7 hPa (+0.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 11 mi51 min Calm G 1 69°F 72°F1018 hPa (+0.0)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 13 mi51 min 74°F 72°F1016.9 hPa (+0.0)
MHRN6 14 mi51 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1
44022 - Execution Rocks 15 mi36 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 71°F 62°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi51 min Calm G 0 72°F 72°F1017.8 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi61 min N 3.9 G 5.8 72°F 71°F4 ft1016.2 hPa (+0.0)65°F
44069 47 mi51 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 68°F 70°F68°F

Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York City, Central Park, NY0 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair71°F57°F61%1017.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY5 mi60 minNE 310.00 miFair73°F57°F59%1017 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ7 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair70°F57°F66%1017 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ12 mi60 minNE 310.00 miFair73°F57°F59%1017 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY13 mi60 minNNE 410.00 miFair69°F57°F66%1017.5 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ18 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair64°F63°F96%1018.4 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair59°F59°F100%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from NYC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8
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33Calm545336N94NE7NE7NE8NE6N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN75
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5N7N6CalmNE76
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6NE85NE8NE6665NE7
G15
2 days ago544N543556--N7336NE646466436NE8
G15

Tide / Current Tables for East 41st Street, New York City, East River, New York, New York
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East 41st Street
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:35 AM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:27 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:02 PM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 06:57 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.54.542.91.810.50.61.32.43.54.24.74.84.63.72.51.610.71.11.92.93.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:12 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:23 AM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:34 PM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.300.10.50.90.80.40-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.4-0.10.10.30.80.90.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.