Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:44PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:40 PM EDT (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:33AMMoonset 6:18PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1021 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft into this evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves around 1 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1021 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. One cold front will pass east of long island this morning, while another passes through tonight. High pressure will follow from Sunday through Tuesday. A frontal system will move across from Wednesday into Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Moriches, NY
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location: 40.79, -72.75     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191834
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
234 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
One cold front will pass east of long island this morning, while
another passes through tonight. High pressure will follow from
Sunday through Tuesday. A frontal system will move across from
Wednesday into Wednesday night, followed again by high pressure.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Shortwave trough aloft over the great lakes this morning will
pivot toward the region late today. A weak surface trough
lingers, with a cold front approaching from the west late this
afternoon and tonight.

A much drier air mass in the low mid levels will advect mix
down, except right along the coast where sea breezes will keep
dewpoints closer to 70.

With shortwave energy still well west and mid-level warming,
forcing and instability have been limited, with only sct cu. Cu
have built up more along the north shore of long island, so a
brief isolated shower is possible there.

High temps still on track to reach 85-90, highest nyc metro and
the interior ct river valley.

Residual southerly swells of 3-4 ft @ 6 sec period this morning
favor a high rip current risk for the eastern long island ocean
beaches, and a moderate risk farther west. These swells will
continue to slowly subside into this evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
Vigorous upper level shortwave trough approaches this evening
and moves across tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front will
moves across. High-res models have continued to signal
convection approaching western sections, with sct coverage
possible before sunset mainly in orange county. An isolated
shower is still possible thereafter into the evening mainly for
the lower hudson valley, NE nj, and nyc.

Zonal upper flow ensues for Sun into mon. At the surface, high
pressure builds in from the west Sunday into Sunday night, with
mostly sunny, dry, and still quite warm conditions expected,
with high temps only a shade lower than those of today.

As the high sinks south and east, heat and humidity will build
build into the region Monday into Tuesday. Highs will generally
be well into the 80s to lower 90s on Monday, and possibly lower
to mid 90s for Tuesday.

Models are indicating potential for isolated diurnal convection on
Tuesday as instability increases and convectively induced vort
energy rotates around the upper ridge. Low predictability at this
point.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
Decent model agreement with shortwave energy digging into the
great lakes Tue into Tue night and then towards the NE us on
wed. An associated frontal system will bring the next chance for
organized shower and TSTM activity late Tue into wed.

A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week. The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
A cold front will move across the region tonight, with high
pressure building in for Sunday.

Vfr through the TAF period. A few showers and or thunderstorms
are possible with the frontal passage tonight. The best chance
appears to be at kswf around 00z, although confidence is too low
to include in the TAF at this time. Any showers could result in
a brief period of MVFR visibilities.

Ssw flow will continue at coastal terminals this afternoon with
wsw flow elsewhere. A few gusts to around 15 kt are possible at
the city terminals late this afternoon into early this evening.

Winds become light and variable at most terminals outside of the
city tonight before returning out of the NW Sunday morning
behind the cold front.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday-Tuesday morning Vfr.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions possible. SW gusts
to 15-20 kt.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
Winds and seas will increase ahead of a cold frontal passage
late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ocean seas may reach advy levels
Tuesday night, and continue in southerly swells into Wed night.

Hydrology
Impacts from potential showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday are uncertain at this point.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for nyz080-
081.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Goodman nv
near term... Goodman nv
short term... Nv
long term... Jmc nv
aviation... Feb
marine... Goodman nv
hydrology... Nv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 19 mi70 min SW 9.7 G 12 79°F 79°F74°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi52 min SW 12 G 14 78°F 77°F1010.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi58 min SSW 11 G 16 81°F 75°F1009.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 38 mi50 min 74°F 73°F4 ft1010.8 hPa (+0.0)74°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi50 min W 7.8 G 7.8 76°F 76°F3 ft1011.3 hPa (-0.4)74°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi52 min 81°F 71°F1010.4 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY6 mi44 minS 1110.00 miFair85°F71°F63%1010.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi47 minSSW 1010.00 miFair84°F68°F59%1011.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi44 minSSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F69°F59%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11
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S8S8S11S9S3S5W8W5SW3SW5W3CalmW5NW5N3N6CalmSW4S10S11
1 day agoSE9SE11S9S6S5SE3SE3CalmSE5S5S6SE7SE7SE8S9S8S8S10S11
G17
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2 days agoN9NW7NW10N8NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N3N4CalmCalmCalmE44--S9SE7SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Coast Guard Station
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Sat -- 01:13 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:16 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:22 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-00.10.81.52.12.42.31.91.510.50.1-0.10.10.81.62.42.82.82.521.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 AM EDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:45 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:09 PM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:24 PM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-0.9-0.20.71.31.41.20.5-0.4-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.20.71.61.81.71.20.2-0.7-1.4-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.