Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:00 AM   Moonset 1:21 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 313 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 313 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front this afternoon. High pressure otherwise controls the weather through most of Saturday. A cold front then moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region.

FXUS61 KOKX 020946 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 546 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front this afternoon. High pressure otherwise controls the weather through most of Saturday. A cold front then moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region. The front moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The forecast is on track. A warm front will pass through during this morning, followed by a cold front this afternoon while a shortwave dives SE through New England. Moisture is limited with both fronts, and although eastern portions of the forecast area will have deeper lift this afternoon, would have liked to have seen deeper moisture on time-heights to introduce a chance of showers.

The high temperature forecast will be a little tricky as there's some uncertainty surrounding how quickly low stratus dissipates, especially for coastal areas. Thinking is that it should eventually turn out to be a mostly sunny afternoon for most spots. Based on progged 850mb temps, up to where mixing occurs for most areas by the end of the afternoon, deterministic NBM numbers seem reasonable.

Continued dry for tonight as high pressure builds in from the north.
Low temperatures a few degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues to build in from the north while a ridge axis aloft shifts towards us. Dry and cooler as winds arrive from the east, limiting the mixing depth. Went slightly cooler than NBM, which is close to its 25th percentile, and still might be a little too warm based on progged 925mb temps of 7-8C.

Dry for Friday night and at least Saturday morning, but generally lowering and thickening clouds are expected during this period. The ridge axis aloft will be right over us during Saturday and slow to move, so even Saturday afternoon stands a good chance of remaining dry. Will maintain slight chance PoPs west of the Hudson River in the afternoon. Mixing depth is limited once again for Saturday with an onshore flow and the ridge axis aloft. Went slightly cooler than the NBM again for high temps.

A cold front slowly approaches from the west Saturday night as it runs into ridging aloft. Associated rainfall with the front will also have a tough time pushing into the forecast area. Rain probabilities remain below likely through the night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upper level ridge axis shifts offshore early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal by early next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves off shore Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area and moves into the region Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front tracks across Sunday night into Monday, and becomes nearly stationary as the flow becomes parallel to the boundary. A period of some heavier showers will be possible Sunday as precipitable water values increase to 1.3 inches. NBM QPF probabilities remain similar to 24 hours ago. Probabilities of seeing 1 inch or more with this event are 20 to 15 percent from west to east, with the 90th percentile PQPF over 48 hours showing 1.5 to 1 inch from west to east.

Tuesday into Wednesday high pressure builds south from the Hudson Bay region of Canada into the eastern Great Lakes. With a deep low tracking northward from the northern plains into southern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday the stalled cold front will move slowly northward as a warm front. There is uncertainty as to the movement of the front as high pressure, and an upper ridge will be in place.
Temperatures Friday night through Sunday will be around 5 degrees above normal, and then Sunday night into Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees above normal. For highs and lows Monday through Wednesday used a blend of NBM and NBM 75th percentile to raise temperatures a few degrees above the NBM. Depending on the movement of the warm front next week, there is a chance that a few locations will have a record high low Monday night into Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A weak frontal system moves through the area today. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the associated warm front/cold front get through the area, which could lead to wind timing and intensity issues. The front may struggle to get east of the coastal terminals.

Mainly IFR to LIFR expected through the early morning hours.
Improvement to VFR is expected later this morning, with the exact timing still in question. It may take into early afternoon across the far eastern terminals to see a return to VFR.

S/SE winds under 10kt early this morning, then gradually veering from east to west as a frontal system attempts to work across the area. The westerly wind shift may remain west of the KLGA and KJFK for much of the day, before going around in the early evening. There is fair amount of uncertainty as to how far east the west winds.
W/NW winds 10-15kt G20kt are possible for those locations that do come around. By late day/early evening, all the terminals should become more northerly/northeasterly.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD expected early this morning with changing conditions in low stratus and fog. High confidence in low stratus through the early morning, with lower confidence in fog.

The timing of the wind shift to the W/NW today could be delayed significantly, especially at KLGA and KJFK where a southerly flow may hold on longer.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR cond in the afternoon, becoming likely late overnight.

Sunday...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds will be at around 10 kt or less through the day today, but will increase out of NE behind late tonight as high pressure builds in behind a departed cold front. NE-E winds 10-15 kt Friday morning with gusts below 25 kt diminish in the afternoon. A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub-advisory conditions across the waters Friday night through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Thu -- 01:24 AM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:01 PM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
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Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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