Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
East Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:31PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:07 PM EST (19:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:33AMMoonset 6:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 610 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through late Sunday night...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 610 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds over the region overnight into early Saturday. A warm front will lift to the north later Saturday, then a strong cold front will approach Saturday night, and sweep sweep eastward Sunday morning as strong low pressure passes to the north. A few weather disturbances are possible later next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Moriches, NY
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location: 40.79, -72.75     debug

Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 181848
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
148 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

A developing low pressure system approaches from the west. Its
associated warm front will lift to the north of the area this
evening, and then an associated strong cold front will move
across Sunday morning as the strong low pressure center passes
to the north. A few weather disturbances are possible later next

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast remains on track. Only some minor adjustments needed
to hourly t TD winds to better reflect current conds and trends.

A longwave trough advances through the plains and will reach
the midwest ohio valley by evening. Overcast conditions with
overrunning rain associated with an approaching warm front
starting to move in N and W of nyc. This will spread east late
afternoon into the evening.

Southerly winds will increase as well, but the strongest winds
will hold off until tonight and Sunday.

Waa pattern could result in high temperatures occurring late in
the day or even right before midnight.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
Neutral upper trough becomes negatively tilted by Sunday morning
with a vigorous shortwave moving through new england. At the
sfc, low pres in the ohio valley this evening will strengthen as
it tracks through the eastern great lakes and into SE canada
through Sun night. 00z ec has trended a little deeper with the
low but not as deep as the GFS cmc. The NAM is weaker.

Warm front should lift through this eve with increasing S winds
in the low levels. Cold front then approaches from the west with
s-sw winds increasing further and a band of moderate to heavy
showers sweeping across with the front overnight.

Confidence in any wind-related hazards remains higher across eastern
ct and long island, where a wind advisory has been issued for
tonight into Sunday. Given a significant low-level mass
response to the potent upper system, the potential still exists
for strong gusts tonight as a jet (50-60kt at 925 mb)
strengthens across the coast. Naefs suggest low-level jet speeds
significantly stronger than normal for this time of year - in
the 90-98th percentile from 850-700 mb. As previous discussions
have mentioned, questions still remain on how much of these
winds will be able to mix to the surface. However, given the
antecedent dry air mass, saturation may be somewhat slow, and is
supported by SREF probabilities showing only a 25% chance of
ceilings below 3000 ft by 06z sun. Mixing to 3000 ft would
certainly allow gusts perhaps in the range of 50-55kt across
eastern long island and eastern coastal connecticut, especially
after the passage of the warm front. There will be another
chance to mix stronger winds to the surface with the arrival of
any showers convection as the cold front pushes through the

There is also very limited elevated instability across the east
end of LI so have added in the possibility for a rumble of
thunder for a few hours early Sun morning. Otherwise, rain ends
from W to E by late morning early aftn with clearing skies.

Could end up with some bkn clouds from lake effect streamers
well N W of the city, but no pcpn is expected to make it into
the cwa. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold
air working in behind the front, but expect falling temperatures
during the aftn.

Winds may briefly abate Sunday morning following the frontal
passage, before strengthening again into the afternoon from the
wnw with the passage of a strong mid- level vorticity maximum.

Confidence in any wind- advisory level sustained speeds gusts
remains highest across eastern ct long island closer to the
departing low. Otherwise, areas farther west will need to be
monitored for possible inclusion in the wind advisory for

Gradient remains tight Sun night with CAA continuing, thus gusty
winds continue.

Long term Monday through Saturday
A broad area of high pressure will build into the region Monday
and Tuesday. This will produce fair weather. Superblend was
used for temperatures except for Monday night, where mex was
used to better capture radiational cooling.

Wednesday remains a bit of a question. A cold front will be
approaching from the west. In addition, there remains the
suggestion that some semblance of a coastal low will develop.

The 12z GFS is way off the southeast coast and not a factor. The
12z ECMWF is trending west and now produces a solid swath of
rain across the area. The forecast has been trended towards the
ecmwf, with low chances for precipitation included for all
areas. The rain would help to suppress high temperatures as
well. The cooler superblend was used as a result.

The cold front comes through Wednesday night. The ECMWF is much
different than the gfs, which pours the cold air into the
region. The ECMWF keeps the coldest air locked to the north of
the area, most likely due to the dynamics of the strengthening
offshore low. A blend of the models was used, however depending
on how the pattern ultimately develops, thanksgiving
temperatures could end up being roughly plus or minus 5 degrees
from the current forecast for highs. All solutions are dry for
the day however, followed by a continuation of the dry weather
on Friday.

The GFS does spin up a low along the subtropical jet and tracks
it east of the area on Friday. The ECMWF spins up something
similar on Saturday. This feature will need to be watched for
any westward trend.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
A low pressure system approaches with its warm front moving
north across the region this evening, which will be followed by
a strong cold front moving through Sunday morning.

Vfr until this evening with light rain showers starting to move
in. Then mainly MVFR can be expected with some localized ifr
especially with any heavier rain showers right near the cold
frontal boundary. Conditions gradually improve Sunday with rain
showers tapering off west to east Sunday morning withVFR
returning in the afternoon as dry conditions return.

Winds will be the main issue. S-sw flow 10-15kt gusting to near
20kt this afternoon will increase going into tonight to
20-25kt, gusts 30-35kt. For eastern terminals, gusts expected
to exceed 40kt for some time late tonight into early Sunday
morning. This will be where terminals are under the low level
jet, presenting llws from SW flow of 50kt at 2kft. Expecting
widespread gusts to near 35kt to at times near 40kt during the
day Sunday.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday Vfr with NW winds g30-40kt through the day. Gusts
diminish to 25-30kt Sunday evening.

Monday Vfr. W-nw winds g20-30kt. Gusts diminish gradually at

Tuesday MainlyVFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night with
showers. SW winds g15-25kt.

Wednesday MVFR possible with showers during the day.VFR at
night. W-nw winds g15-20kt.

Thursday Vfr.

Sw winds will be increasing ahead of a cold front. Gale-force
winds on the ocean waters in the afternoon will spread to all
other waters as the front nears tonight, with seas building in
response. Overnight, a low level jet is expected to strengthen
along the coast, with the possibility of storm-force gusts
reaching the surface, mainly east of fire island on the ocean
waters. A storm watch remains in effect.

The front passes from west to east tomorrow morning, with a brief
lull in winds before they strengthen again from the wnw. Gale-force
winds will continue into Sunday night, before gradually weakening to
sca-levels. SCA conditions may continue into Tuesday before
gradually weakening into Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
builds across the area.

A band of moderate to locally heavy showers with a strong cold
frontal passage late tonight into Sunday morning should cause
no more than local nuisance impacts. Total rainfall is expected
to range between 1 2 to 1 inch.

Tides coastal flooding
Storm surge guidance for Sunday morning high tide may to be on
the low side given the strength of southerly winds expected sat
night into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. But typically,
s SW winds are not conducive to building surge.

There is a low probability of a surge of 1-2 ft Sunday morning.

If these surge levels develop, minor coastal impacts in a
strong SW W flow would be felt mainly across eastern portions of
the great south bay into moriches bay. Elsewhere any impacts
would be brief and localized.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm est Sunday for

Ny... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm est Sunday for

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am est Monday for

Storm watch from 6 pm est this evening through Sunday morning
for anz350-353.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz350-353.

Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz355.

Synopsis... Jmc goodman jm
near term... Goodman 19 jm
short term... Goodman
long term... Jmc
aviation... Jm
marine... Md
hydrology... Jmc goodman
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 19 mi68 min SW 16 G 19 51°F 45°F41°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi83 min SSW 12 G 14 51°F 1 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi78 min SSW 21 G 25 55°F 58°F5 ft1009.3 hPa (-4.6)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi49 min S 14 G 18 51°F 1 ft41°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY6 mi72 minSSW 1210.00 miFair52°F41°F66%1009.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi75 minSSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair53°F39°F59%1009.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi72 minS 14 G 1910.00 miOvercast53°F39°F61%1008.9 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW15
1 day agoW10
2 days ago43CalmE33CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE8SE11SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Coast Guard Station
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Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:34 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:21 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Sat -- 03:02 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:47 AM EST     1.68 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 08:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:08 PM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:45 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:02 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:12 PM EST     1.33 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.