Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:14PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 11:53 AM EDT (15:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:12AMMoonset 8:00PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1123 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and isolated tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft this evening...then 1 ft or less. Numerous showers...mainly this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves around 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning...then chance of rain at night.
ANZ300 1123 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A stationary front will remain to the S today. Low pres will pass to the south tonight. High pres will build in on Wed and Thu...then pass east Thu night. Low pres approaching from the central states will impact the waters on Fri and Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Moriches, NY
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location: 40.79, -72.75     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 281344
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
944 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A frontal system will approach today, and pass early Wednesday.

High pressure will build in for Thursday, and drift offshore
Thursday night. A low pressure system will impact the region
Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday and
Monday.

Near term /through tonight/
Satellite indicates the main upper level system was moving
over eastern kentucky into west virginia. Elevated instability
was increasing across the forecast area evidenced by showers and
thunderstorms. These should continue to develop per the nam
which appears to have a very good handle on the activity thus
far. Fog was widespread, however, visibilities were generally 2
to 4 miles, with areas 1 to 2 miles. As the main system
approaches this afternoon and evening, more showers can be
expected. Some embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out until
the instability axis exits, leaving remnant stratiform light
rain. The models were in good agreement so a blend was used for
temperatures through tonight.

Short term /Wednesday/
Dry weather with a northwesterly breeze. Despite a cooler
airmass in place, temperatures will actually be warmer than
Tuesday because of deep mixing. Mostly sunny skies are progged,
although some fair weather convective clouds will be possible if
they are able to overcome the subsidence. A blend of the
guidance was used for temperatures.

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
The extended period will feature a split flow across the continental
united states with systems moving through active northern and
southern streams. As a result, even through there are similarities
in the longwave and overall solutions, the details of the forecast
have become more uncertain, and inconsistencies from run to run have
increased. Currently there is now little to no phasing of systems
impacting the east, and in particular the region, Thursday night
into Saturday, and yet another system Monday night into Tuesday.

There are now more uncertainties as to the depth of the lows,
timing, and tracks.

For late Thursday night through Saturday night have long period of
probabilities, and even likely probabilities from Friday into
Saturday. This is likely too long a period however, with the
uncertainties wanted to maintain some consistency with prior
forecasts. Both the ECMWF and GFS have some lingering cold air
across the northern portions of the CWA Thursday night before warm
advection increases. So have kept a mix of snow and rain inland.

Canadian high pressure builds in for late Saturday night into
Monday, and possibly Tuesday if ridging remains as per the gfs.

The ECMWF is quicker to weaken and shift the ridge off shore
Tuesday. Have introduced a low chance of precipitation for
Tuesday.

Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/
A front remains just south of the terminals and attempts to
push back north as a warm front today.

Light ene winds this morning with areas of rain and low
ceilings. Lifr conditions at times this morning, otherwise areas
of rain this morning will result in ifr conditions at times,
and then back down to lifr when the rain lightens or stops.

Some thunder will be possible along the southern terminals
(kewr, kjfk, kisp) this morning between 14z-16z
another area of rainfall will arrive later in the day and for
the evening. There is a thunderstorm chance with this next area
of rainfall for the city terminals, but not confident enough to
put in tafs at this time. Ifr to lifr conditions are expected
to prevail until about 6z late tonight, with improving
conditions thereafter from west to east.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi69 min E 16 G 19 40°F 1 ft
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi54 min E 8.9 G 12 42°F 1014.7 hPa (-0.4)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi54 min ESE 4.1 G 8 43°F 40°F1015 hPa (-0.8)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 38 mi64 min 41°F 42°F4 ft1014.8 hPa (-1.3)41°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi64 min ESE 14 G 16 44°F 42°F4 ft1012.9 hPa (+0.0)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi69 min E 7.8 G 12 39°F 2 ft39°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi54 min 40°F 39°F1015.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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N9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY6 mi58 minno data10.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1014.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi61 minE 7 G 1510.00 miOvercast44°F41°F89%1015 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi58 minE 1110.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SW5SW8SW6N8N7CalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmCalmCalm43SE3353SE5SE66--
1 day agoE5E9
G15
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5E7
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55E7E733E5Calm334E7E5E635SE9S6
2 days agoN74SE8SE73N7
G16
3SE36CalmN4N5N43Calm333353354

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Coast Guard Station
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:37 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:54 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:45 PM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.4-0-0.3-0.30.31.22.12.62.62.31.81.10.50-0.3-0.4-00.91.92.62.72.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:35 PM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:31 PM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.2-0.60.31.31.81.61.20.3-0.7-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.4-0.70.11.11.81.81.50.8-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.