Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:30PM Saturday February 17, 2018 9:56 PM EST (02:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 704 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight, then becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain, snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm after midnight.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the evening. Chance of rain after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm in the evening.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 704 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes to our south tonight, followed by high pressure for Sunday. The high then slides offshore through Monday. A warm front approaches from the southwest Monday night, then lifts to the north Tuesday, followed by a slow moving cold front crossing the area during the middle week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Moriches, NY
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location: 40.79, -72.75     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180025
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
725 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure passes to our south tonight, followed by high
pressure for Sunday. The high then slides offshore through
Monday. A warm front approaches from the southwest Monday night,
then lifts to the north Tuesday, followed by a slow moving cold
front crossing the area during the middle week. High pressure may
briefly build in to close the upcoming work week, before another
frontal system approaches for the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
No significant changes with this update. Mixed signals from
model guidance continue on northward progress of rain snow
line, with latest hrrr keeping it safely south of li, 18z rap nam
riding it to nyc south coast and north between lie sunrise
across li, while 18z GFS rides it north across nyc nj metro and
into coastal ct.

Have maintained continuity with current forecast and middle of
the road NAM solution. Kdix dual-pol indicating mixing line
across southern nj getting towards southern LI queens by 02z,
but some erosion of this is indicated as it works north. The
other thing to note is possible coastal front formation just
south of li, with winds having turned N NE across nyc nj metro
and li. This could become the battle ground for the rain snow
line later this evening. So no clear indication to change snow
amounts at this time.

Meanwhile moderate to heavy snow banding beginning to develop
across northern portions of nyc nj metro and expanding towards
southern portions of the lower hud and SW ct over the next
couple of hours. Snowfall rates of 1 to possibly 2 inches per
hour are possible with rapid deterioration in road conditions.

One inch of snow being reported at cpk as of 7pm, in about 2
hrs.

Otherwise... Low pressure emerges off of the mid-atlantic coast
and moves northeast, passing just south of the 40n 70w
benchmark. The storm will pass by relatively quickly as there
will be a lack of downstream blocking to slow it down.

Pcpn types, particularly over coastal areas, remain a challenging
forecast with boundary layer temperatures marginally supportive of
snow. This along with a slight increase of QPF for some of the
models complicates headline decisions. Models have generally nudged
north with the track of the low with the 12z suite. Most noticeable
however is that although the NAM has nudged north, it's thermal
profile in the boundary layer has warmed up significantly over long
island and to a lesser extent elsewhere. The rest of the models are
fairly similar to their respective previous runs regarding the
boundary layer temps and temps farther aloft. So with only nam
having a notably changed, changes to the snowfall forecast will be
greater over coastal sections of the city and long island, including
the north fork. Snow amounts for these areas have been lowered.

For a few hours within both sides of midnight, the strongest
frontogenetic upward lift shifts through the tri-state area with the
heaviest pcpn. Light onshore winds will also be shifting towards
north during this period. Therefore expecting boundary layer and
surface temps to drop a degree or two at this point, shifting the
boundary from all snow to a rain snow mix farther south. Banding
potential exists, however the window of opportunity for this to
occur seems brief with the quick advancement of frontogenetic
forcing and the orientation of the jet streak aloft. Best chance for
banded pcpn appears to be over long island and SE ct, but thermal
profiles at its onset might not be supporting all-snow before
cooling down.

A blend of NAM 2-meter temps with superblend looked good for surface
temps through the event - generally on the colder side of guidance.

Thermal profiles support all snow for all areas north of the city
and most of NE nj. Mixing with rain could still occur for part of
the ct coast as well as areas within about 10 miles of the city. A
mix of rain and snow is otherwise forecast, and not even out the
question for a complete changeover to rain over parts of long island
and southern parts of the city. Should the warming trend of nam
hold, may very well need to make mention of a complete changeover in
these areas and lower snow amounts.

A winter storm warning remains in effect where it had already been
posted, with the exception of northeastern suffolk county where a
winter weather advisory is in effect. Did not have enough confidence
to downgrade elsewhere. All areas that had been in a winter storm
watch are now also under a winter weather advisory. The winter wx
advisory over orange and putnam counties remain, however a good
portion of putnam county might exceed 6 inches.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Ridging at the surface and aloft occurs on Sunday, with high
pressure shifting offshore on Sunday night. Dry weather through the
period with a mostly clear sky. Sided with the colder side of
guidance for temperatures due to a fresh snow pack.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Anomalously strong bermuda east coast ridging develops early this
week and continues into midweek, in response to deep western
troughing. The western trough will gradually shear NE in piecemeal
fashion for the late week weekend, resulting in a transition to a
bit more suppressed but active confluent SW upper flow.

At the surface, high pressure slides off the coast on Monday, and
then becomes established under the upper ridge by midweek. Meanwhile
a slow moving frontal system will cross through the mississippi
river valley the first half of the week. Its warm front likely
approaches Monday night with rain and then gets pushed north of the
region on Tuesday. An unseasonably warm SW flow is likely Tue wed
under deep layered ridging, with highs around 70 possible for nyc nj
metro and areas n&w on Tue and lower to mid 70s on wed. Meanwhile
south coastal areas may struggle to get out out of the 50s due to
the cold water temp. Coastal advection stratus fog and nocturnal
radiation fog is possible during this time as well.

Models in general agreement with the eastern ridging breaking down
enough, to allow a stream of shortwave energy to approach and push
an approaching cold front towards and through the region Wed night.

This likely brings another round of rain to the region Wed night
through Thursday.

Potential for brief ridging Friday, before next shortwave and
associated frontal system affect the region on Saturday with another
round of rain.

Temps during the period expected to average well above average, with
high temps potentially 25-30 degrees above normal Tue and Wed for
nyc nj metro and areas n&w..

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
Low pressure off the DELMARVA deepens and passes south of long
island overnight. The low passes well to the east Sunday morning
as high pressure builds to the west.

Ifr to lifr and even vlifr at times in light to moderate snow.

A rain snow mix is possible along the south shore of long island
and into southern nyc, and possibly into southeastern ct. There
is some uncertainty if the rain snow mix will occur. The
precipitation ends late overnight into early Sunday morning, 08z
kswf to 12z at kgon. Conditions quickly becomeVFR.

Snowfall rates could reach 1 inch, to as high as 2 inches, per
hour during the heaviest snowfall.

Total snow accumulations:
4 to 6 inches, kjfk, kisp, kswf, kgon
6 to 8 inches, kewr, kteb, klga, khpn, kbdr.

Southeast winds around 10kt will continue this evening, then as low
pressure passes south of long island, winds shift to the NE and n.

As the low passes to the east winds become NW 10-15 kt with gusts 18
to 25 kt during the day Sunday. Gusts and winds diminish late in the
afternoon, and become light and variable by 00z Monday.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night-Monday Vfr. Becoming MVFR to ifr in rain and
possibly fog Monday afternoon.

Tuesday MVFR or ifr possible in the morning and again at night,
otherwiseVFR with SW wind g20kt possible.

Wednesday Vfr. Chance of showers with MVFR.

Thursday MVFR in rain.

Marine
Sca has been issued for the ocean waters for Sunday morning into
early afternoon with increasing winds and seas. There could be some
gusts to 25 kt Sunday morning over the eastern sound and eastern
bays, but coverage didn't warrant an advisory. Sub-sca conds
otherwise tonight and from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday
night.

Generally sub-advsy winds expected Mon through wed, but a persistent
15 to 20 kt SW flow may have sea building to SCA levels Tue wed.

Seas should subside Wed night into Thu as a weak cold front passes
through and winds become offshore.

Hydrology
Around 1 2 to 3 4 an inch of liquid equivalent is expected Saturday
night with locally higher amounts. With most, if not all of this
falling in the form of snow, no hydrologic impacts are expected.

No significant hydrologic impacts are expected from Sunday through
the end of next week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 7 am est Sunday for ctz005>012.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Sunday for nyz067-068-
074-075-079>081-178-179.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Sunday for nyz069>073-078-
176-177.

Nj... Winter storm warning until 7 am est Sunday for njz002-004-006-
103>108.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to noon est Sunday for anz350-
353-355.

Synopsis... Jc nv
near term... Jc nv
short term... Jc
long term... Nv
aviation... 19
marine... Jc nv
hydrology... Jc nv
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi56 min E 9.7 G 14 33°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi38 min SE 5.1 G 7 32°F 39°F1020.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi44 min E 5.1 G 8 32°F 36°F1019.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi66 min SSE 12 G 14 40°F 42°F3 ft1019.9 hPa (-2.2)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi38 min 34°F 38°F1020.8 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY6 mi2 hrsVar 48.00 miLight Rain34°F33°F97%1022.1 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi63 minNNE 75.00 miRain Fog/Mist36°F35°F97%1020.9 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi2 hrsENE 66.00 miLight Rain Snow Fog/Mist34°F33°F97%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NW10N13
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NW9N6NW9NW6N7NW5NW4NW5CalmN56CalmSE12SE10SE10SE8SE8SE8
G20
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1 day agoS3SW4S5SW3S3S5S5SW4W6W3W5NW7CalmS5SW3W9W13
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2 days ago--SW6SW5SW9SW7S5SW3S5SW6SW7S6SW6SW5SW8S8SW7SW8SW7S9S6SW4S3SW4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Coast Guard Station
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Sat -- 03:27 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:19 AM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:22 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:39 PM EST     2.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.50.1-0.1-00.61.422.32.32.11.61.10.60.2-0.1-0.20.20.91.72.12.121.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM EST     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:34 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     1.58 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:38 PM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:08 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:20 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:31 PM EST     1.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:42 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-1.6-1.5-1-0.40.41.21.61.41.10.3-0.6-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.3-0.8-0.10.71.31.41.10.6-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.