Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 1:06 AM   Moonset 9:46 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1114 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers late this evening. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Tue night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms after midnight. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Fri - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1114 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front lifts north and east through the area tonight, followed by a weak trough or cold front late tonight. The boundary returns as a back door cold front on Monday, before a frontal wave moves out of the ohio valley Tuesday, passing to the the south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the week, followed by another frontal system over the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 290525 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 125 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front lifts north and east through the area tonight, followed by a weak trough or cold front late tonight. The boundary returns as a back door cold front on Monday, before a frontal wave moves out of the Ohio Valley Tuesday, passing to the the south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the week, followed by another frontal system over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.

A warm front continues lifting north and east of the area early this morning. Temperatures tonight will run above normal by about 10 degrees, with lows in the 50s and low 60s. Patchy fog is possible overnight into early Monday morning, and could be dense in a few locales.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US on Monday, with a surface high sitting off the Southeast coast. The warm front that meandered thru will return as a cold front that attempts to slowly backdoor the region thru the day.

Before the fropa, NW flow that developed behind the surface trough should aid deeper mixing than over the weekend and help lead to summerlike levels of warmth for parts of the area.
Still some uncertainty in the temperature forecast as timing of a back door cold front and lingering cloud cover will be key factors in just how warm the BL can get. Should the front advance a bit quicker, temperatures in and around NYC may be a bit cooler than currently forecast. Blended in some of the latest guidance that indicates a slightly quicker fropa across eastern areas, resulting in cooler highs here. West of the Hudson and away from maritime influence, temperatures should get into the low 80s by lunchtime, likely topping out in the mid 80s before falling back late day. Potential continues for parts of urban NE NJ to get into the upper 80s, or near record heat for late April. See Climate section below for records data.

The back door cold front advances south and west into the evening hours, and conditions should quickly cool back into the 60s everywhere by mid evening. Low clouds likely develops in the easterly flow behind the front, and will need to monitor for fog potential overnight into Tuesday AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
*Key Points*

*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period followed by a slight warmup for the week's end.

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area during the period.

Upper ridging along the eastern seaboard weakens while moving out into the Atlantic on Tuesday. This will allow weakening low pressure over the Ohio Valley to track east along the front, passing to the south and east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best forcing looks to reside north across the Mid Hudson Valley and central New England. Rainfall chances have trended down with this event due to blocking across the western Atlantic. An isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out Tuesday night. With the low tracking to the south Wednesday, some light rain and/or drizzle could linger during the first half of the day, especially eastern areas. Ridging returns for the second half of the week and the trend here has been more amplified and slower. Thus, the remainder of the week looks to be dry. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the intermountain west on Friday, then up into the Great Lakes over the weekend. This will send another weakening frontal system into the area Saturday into Sunday.

As for temperatures, an easterly flow on Tuesday following a backdoor cold front will return highs closer to normal. A gradual warmup can then be expected for the rest of the week with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal along the coast, but to 5 to 10 degrees inland. Chance of rain and cloud cover Saturday and Sunday knocks temps down a bit.

AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weak trough continues to push east of the terminals early this morning. A back door cold front approaches in the afternoon and moves through in the evening.

VFR through 00z Tuesday. A few showers are possible late this afternoon and early this evening and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. For now will include a PROB30 for SHRA.

Ceilings should then begin lowering thereafter as the back door cold front pushes east with MVFR to IFR development occurring 03-05z. IFR conditions are likely early Tuesday morning.

Light winds to start will become NW-NNW. Winds will begin to shift to the S-SE with sea breeze development in the afternoon.
Winds begin to back to the ESE-E this evening and then E overnight. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less through the TAF period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts in the TAF may be off by 1-3 hours.

Winds at KLGA may become NNE-NE this morning/early afternoon before shifting to the SE.

A shower, possibly a thunderstorm, could occur 21-00z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: MVFR to IFR likely mainly in ceilings. Slight chance of a shower.

Tuesday: MVFR to IFR in the morning, some VFR possible in the afternoon. Shower possible late afternoon, more probable Tuesday night with potential thunder.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through late week under a weak pressure gradient regime.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for Monday, April 29:

EWR: 91/1974 BDR: 86/2017 NYC: 89/1974 LGA: 88/2017* JFK: 85/2017 ISP: 85/2017

*Also occurred in previous years

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Belleville
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Sun -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:08 PM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:32 PM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Belleville, Passaic River, New Jersey (2), Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:09 AM EDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:08 AM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:41 PM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current (2), knots

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