Monday, September25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Tamaqua, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:56PM Monday September 25, 2017 12:26 AM EDT (04:26 UTC) Moonrise 11:05AMMoonset 9:22PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1136 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Rest of tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1136 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the northeastern united states through the first part of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday through Thursday as hurricane maria approaches north carolina. Refer to the latest statements from the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tamaqua , PA
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location: 40.8, -75.94     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250120
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
920 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

High pressure will stay over our region tomorrow, before weakening
Tuesday. Hurricane maria will track northward over the atlantic
waters, approaching the coastal carolinas on Wednesday, then curving
out to sea on Thursday as a cold front passes through the region. A
second cold front may propagate through our region Friday into
Saturday before a large area of high pressure builds over the

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
No big changes expected this evening to the forecast. Main
challenge will be hourly temperatures for the next few hours as
temperatures will drop sharply in some areas after sunset for a
an hour or two, before a slower decline overnight.

Otherwise, another nice night is expected with mostly clear
skies and light winds. There was a little fog around the rural
areas last night and the will probably be more fog in these
areas tonight. We will keep the patchy wording in the grids as
before. Low temperatures will drop into the low 60s north and
mid upper 60s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
High pressure will remain over the area Monday. It will be a little
more humid as the onshore flow will continue. Skies will be mostly
sunny during the day. High temperatures will be a little cooler than
today, but still above normal for late september. Highs will be in
the upper 80s in most areas. Winds will again be light from the E or

Long term Monday night through Sunday
cfw-high risk rip currents, especially since swells
will triple by late Tuesday (to around 9 feet), what we saw this
afternoon and the period will be similar 13-14 seconds... Resulting
in an even more dangerous surf zone.

Cfw-su.Y high surf advisory. May need to considered for tue-wed.

One NWS schematic indicates the energy of a 13 second 10 foot
swell can cause breakers to nearly 14 feet. While we probably
wont forecast that high... Forecasting closer to a 1 for 1
relationship, or in this case a 10 foot swell of 13 second
period to equate to about a 10 foot beach breaker. There is
little doubt that longer period swells break larger than a swell
of similar height but much shorter period (those shorter ones
are steeper but with less energy).

Tuesday and Wednesday... Surface high is expected to weaken
through this time, however not as quickly as shown with
previous model runs. Therefore, trimmed back pops across eastern
pa and NW nj. However, kept a mention of showers across our
coastal plains as we may have a few of the very outer rain bands
of maria near the coast. Based on the latest forecast track of
maria, all tropical storm force winds should stay well to the
south of our region.

Thursday... Models have generally trended faster with the cold
front propagating through our region Wednesday night into early
Thursday. In addition, there remains good model consensus that
maria will make the sharp ene turn through this period heading
much further out to sea. What that means for our region is that
we should have breezy northwesterly winds behind the front.

Models have backed off on precipitation chances with and just
ahead of the front, so I lowered pops slightly, but given the
moist marine layer that should be in place thanks to the onshore
flow from the two previous days, think that showers are still

Friday through Sunday... Cooler air will settle in over the
region. Temperatures through this period are likely to be near
or slightly below normal (in stark contrast to the beginning of
the week). One feature of note is a low digging southeast out of
central canada towards the mid atlantic Friday into Saturday.

At the surface, this would mean a second cold front could arrive
in our region early in the weekend. The previous run of the
ecmwf showed a very amplified solution with a mid level closed
low almost becoming cutoff over our region through the weekend.

The 12z run is much closer to the GFS solution showing a
progressive pattern (albeit still closed low). This will be a
major change from the large scale pattern we have now (trough
over the western u.S. And ridge over the east), so hesitate to
favor one solution over another given the large uncertainty.

Thus, through this period, have gone with a blend of models and
a slight chance of precip.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

High pressure across the TAF sites tonight will keep good
flying weather through the period. The only exception will be
the possibility for some fog overnight mostly at the more rural
locations. We have included a period with fog in the terminals
except for kphl and kpne where chances of fog are lower. Once
the fog diminishes Monday, moreVFR conditions with mostly clr
skies are expected. Winds will be light from the E or SE through


Tuesday and wedensday... MostlyVFR conditions expected. There
is a chance for showers both days (if any showers move over a
taf site, MVFR or lower conditions are possible). Northeasterly
wind up to 10 kt possible. At the coast, including kacy,
northeasterly winds of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts will be

Wednesday night and Thursday... A cold front will bring a shift
to northwesterly winds and a slight chance for showers.

Otherwise, mostlyVFR conditions are expected.

Friday... MostlyVFR conditions expected.

While winds will remain light tonight and Monday, seas will
increase slowly as the swells associated with the offshore
tropical systems continue. Currently seas are around 3 to 4
feet, but should increase through the night to around 5 feet. On
Monday, they should increase to 5 to 6 feet. We will continue
with the marine flags (small craft for hazardous seas) as
previously lined up. Fair weather tonight and Monday.


Tuesday and Wednesday... An SCA will likely be needed for the
entire period on the ocean waters as elevated seas due to swells
associated hurricane maria will be observed through this time.

Seas will gradually build to 8-11 feet by Wednesday. Gusts above
25 kt will be possible especially on the delaware coastal waters
Wednesday. Elevated waves will be possible at the mouth of the
delaware bay. Otherwise, winds and waves should stay below sca
criteria on the bay.

Thursday and Thursday night... A cold front will bring a shift
to northwesterly winds and gusts above 25 kt likely for part of
the period on the atlantic coastal waters. In addition, seas
will likely still be elevated due to swells from maria.

Friday... Winds and seas will be diminishing through the day,
though it is uncertain how quickly they will diminish.

Rip currents...

we regret to inform that new jersey recorded its record 8th rip
current related fatality yesterday, and yet another within an
hour of low tide. The period of record dates back to 1996.

Many rescues today..Despite swells only around 3-4 feet but the
13 second period from maria is causing the formation of dangerous
rip currents. They are transitory but powerful channels of seaward
moving water, especially noticeable during the lower half of the
tide cycle as water trapped behind the bars cuts a narrow channel
and rivers swiftly seaward through the surf zone. Since no lifeguards
are on duty... A phone call about a distressed swimmer can easily
become a recovery. Why risk it? Also... Rocks and jetties... No
need to get knocked off the jetty by a breaking wave and put
would-be rescuers in danger.

Very dangerous surf conditions continue through much of the
week and these will worsen considerably by Wednesday. Please do
not go swimming in the rough surf and stay off rocks and
jetties. No need to put would- be rescuers in danger. Please
follow the advice of local officials. If you must go in the
surf, please only go in to ankle deep. As for the details each
Monday... A high risk for dangerous rip currents will continue
through Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday... This is likely to be the most dangerous
period of the week as we are expecting the highest swells due to
hurricane maria. The threat for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will be high through this period.

Thursday... Rough surf is likely to continue, thus it is likely
that the high threat for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will continue.

Friday... Swells should begin to subside resulting in a decreased
risk for rip currents, though it is likely to at least start the
day as a moderate risk.

The following stations equaled their record for this date
allentown-92, mount pocono-85, trenton-92, wilmington-92.

High temperature records for today
acy... 92(2010)
phl... 95(1970)
ilg... 92(2010 2017)
abe... 92(1970 2017)
ttn... 92(1970 2017)
ged... 97(2010)
rdg... 95(1970)
mpo... 85(2010 2017)
acy... 91(1970)
phl... 92(1970)
ilg... 93(1970)
abe... 92(1970)
ttn... 92(1970)
ged... 92(2010 and 1970)
rdg... 92(1970)
mpo... 85(1970)
this section below will discard by 5 am Monday but is sent as
an fyi sampling for the month of september.

Monthly climate: depending on whether there is any rain at kilg, if
none for the remainder of the month, the current monthly total of
1.12 inches would rank 12th driest in the period of record.

September temps: phl is projecting a 71.6 average (down 0.1 deg from
the evaluation 2 days ago) or 2.5 degrees above the 30 year
average of 69.1, which would make it the 13th warmest september
in the phl period of record. Abe is still projecting a 68
degree avg or 4.1 degrees above normal which would be 9th
warmest september in the abe period of record.

These projections took into account todays (9 24) high low, the phi
330 pm forecast through the 30th.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk through late Monday night for njz014-

De... High rip current risk through late Monday night for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Tuesday
for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Robertson o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag johnson
aviation... Johnson robertson o'hara
marine... Drag johnson robertson o'hara
climate... 920pm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 73 mi39 min 75°F 74°F1016.7 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 74 mi45 min 74°F 76°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA29 mi36 minN 310.00 miFair71°F66°F84%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from ABE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E6NE4NE8NE5E5E7CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmN3
1 day agoCalmSW4SW3W4SW5CalmW3CalmCalmNW8NW5NW84NW5NW5N6N3NE3N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW5CalmSW466NE6NE8NE5N5N4NW4N3NW3N3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Mon -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:27 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:50 PM EDT     6.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tacony-Palmyra Bridge, New Jersey
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Tacony-Palmyra Bridge
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Mon -- 12:43 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:12 AM EDT     6.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 PM EDT     7.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.