Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ronkonkoma, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:34PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 6:38 PM EST (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:59PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 427 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late this evening, then becoming N 5 to 10 kt late. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, except 1 to 2 ft late this evening and during the early morning hours. Freezing rain, snow and sleet this evening, then rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ300 427 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure tracks to the south of the area tonight, followed by a cold front approaching Thursday morning, then passing through Thursday afternoon. High pressure then builds in Thursday night through Friday night, then moves offshore on Saturday. A frontal system will impact the area later Saturday into Sunday, with high pressure building back in early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ronkonkoma, NY
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location: 40.81, -73.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 202146
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
446 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A low pressure system impacts the region through tonight with an
associated cold front passing through Thursday afternoon. High
pressure builds in Thursday night through Friday, then moves
offshore on Saturday. A frontal system will impact the area
later Saturday into Sunday, with high pressure building back in
early next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
A wave of low pressure develops on a warm front that was through
the DELMARVA and into the mid atlantic. Pressure falls have been
increasing across the delmarva. With the wave on the front and
the main low remaining well to the west, the warm front will be
slower top track northward across the region, especially inland.

Temperatures will be slowly rising through the overnight, but
have slowed the rise inland, keeping temperatures below freezing
through the overnight. As a result, the period of freezing rain,
and sleet will be more extensive as the warm nose moves in
overnight, and the ice accumulation was increased to around a
tenth of an inch inland. Near the warm front, the frontal
forcing is not as strong as before, and the period of moderate
precipitation will be shorter, with only a few narrow bands of
more moderate snow expected into this evening. Thus have lowered
snowfall amounts.

Short term Thursday morning through Thursday night
There may be lingering precipitation very early Thursday morning
as a wave of low pressure moves east and northeast of the region
along a warm front that will be moving across the lower hudson
valley into interior southern ct. At this time have kept slight
chance probabilities to 12z, however, depending on how quickly
the low pulls east and the frontal forcing diminishing,
precipitation may linger across the eastern zones an hour or so
longer.

The area becomes warm sectored Thursday, and temperatures across
the region will be above seasonal normals, in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Little moisture will accompany a cold front Thursday
afternoon. A low level and mid level ridge builds to the west
Thursday night with rising heights across the area. Clouds will
be dissipating as drier air move into the area.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Ridging builds back in at the sfc and aloft Fri into sat
providing dry and seasonable weather. The sfc high shifts off
the southern new england coast on sat, as a strengthening storm
system over the central plains lifts tracks NE towards the great
lakes region. An overrunning pattern develops ahead of this
systems warm front, with pcpn developing across the area Sat eve
and continuing into Sun morning before ending. Warm front may be
able to make it partially through the area Sun morning and
there are even indications of a wave of low pres developing on
the boundary, before the cold front passes through the area
during the aftn early eve bringing an end to pcpn. Thermal
profiles support rain for the duration of the event, although a
brief period of rain mixed with sleet is possible at the start
well N and W of nyc. See hydro section for amounts. Winds will
increase on Sun ahead of the cold fropa, but are expected to be
strong and gusty behind the front Sun night into Mon due to the
combination of a tight pres gradient and caa. At this time it
appears there's a potential for wind advsy level winds gusts,
especially at the coast, with speeds ranging between 20-30mph
with gusts 40-50mph across the area.

Warm advection pattern will likely result in steady or slowly
rising temps Sat night. Highs Sun will depend on progression of
the warm front, but could see temps rise well into the 50s in
the warm sector, before they drop behind the cold front sun
night.

High pres builds back in behind the system with winds
diminishing Mon night. Dry weather will then prevail through tue
with temps near normal levels. There is the potential for a
light pcpn event during the middle of next week.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Low pressure moves through the area tonight into Thursday morning.

High pressure then slowly builds from the west through Thursday.

Generally ifr or lower expected in snow through at least the early
evening. Precipitation will change to a wintry mix, then to plain
rain, from southwest to northeast tonight. The one exception to this
is kswf, where precipitation may remain a wintry mix through the
night, with a prolonged period of freezing rain or drizzle possible.

While visibilities will begin to improve once precipitation changes
to all rain, ceilings will remain ifr or lifr into Thursday morning
before steadily improving after daybreak.

Snowfall accumulations will range from 1-3 inches. Highest totals
are expected from kswf kbdr kisp.

Winds from the east- southeast around 10 kt will become light and
variable again overnight, before strengthening from the wnw through
tomorrow morning as the low moves away from the area. Gusts to 20-
25kt will be possible Thursday afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 25 mi44 min E 5.1 G 8 26°F 36°F1029.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi44 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 26°F 37°F1030.3 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi44 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 27°F 32°F1029.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 39 mi48 min ESE 16 G 19 34°F 39°F3 ft1028.1 hPa (-3.3)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi28 min E 16 G 19 33°F 40°F1027.7 hPa33°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 49 mi44 min 28°F 38°F1028 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY1 mi42 minE 50.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F27°F96%1028.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY13 mi42 minN 02.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F25°F88%1029.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi45 minE 50.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F26°F92%1028.8 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Long Island, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:54 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:30 AM EST     0.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:32 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.50.70.90.90.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-00.30.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for Sayville (Brown Creek), Long Island, New York
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Sayville (Brown Creek)
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:51 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:46 AM EST     0.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:29 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.40.20-0.1-0.1-0.10.20.40.60.80.80.70.50.30.1-0-0.2-0.2-00.20.40.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.