Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saddle Rock, NY
April 28, 2024 7:48 AM EDT (11:48 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 12:07 AM Moonset 8:42 AM |
ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 545 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers early, then slight chance of showers early this morning.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 545 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front will remain nearby through the afternoon. A weak trough moves through tonight, with high pressure briefly building in Monday. A back door cold front moves through Monday night followed by another frontal system for late Tuesday. The frontal system exits the area on Wednesday as high pressure builds in for Thursday
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 281123 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 723 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will remain nearby through this afternoon. A weak trough moves through tonight, with high pressure briefly building in Monday. A back door cold front moves through Monday night followed by another frontal system for late Tuesday. The frontal system exits the area on Wednesday as high pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday. Another frontal system then approaches for Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Two different areas of scattered showers continue early this morning. One is pushing off the east end and the other is more of a broken line extending from upstate NY down into Western Long Island. There is around 100 to 250 J/kg of MUCAPE from western Long Island north and west, so one or two rumbles of thunder are possible in any heavier shower. These showers should begin to diminish in coverage through 8 am and likely end shortly thereafter.
Otherwise, a warm front will remain nearby through the day. SW flow should give temperatures a boost compared to recent days.
There will also be some clearing late morning into the afternoon. Even with mostly cloudy skies, the air mass is much warmer with 850 mb temps 11 to 13C (compared to 3 to 6C Saturday afternoon). The spread of high temperatures has been reduced, but the NBM deterministic and MOS output still lie at or below the 25th percentile, especially for NE NJ and the NYC metro.
These outputs have typically been running too cool in similar setups, so will continue to side with the NBM 50th percentile, which yields highs in the upper 70s to around 80 for NE NJ, portions of the NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. Highs could end up a few degrees higher, especially in the normally warmer locations. Onshore component of the wind across Long Island and Connecticut will prevent temperatures from rising as much, but should still reach the 60s to around 70 away from the immediate shore.
Another shortwave passes to the north late in the afternoon and evening. Some vorticity energy dives southeastward around the periphery of the high amplitude ridging aloft, helping to push a weak surface trough across the area. Several CAMs are signaling isolated-scattered convection, first across the Lower Hudson Valley just before sunset, and then potentially the rest of the area around our just after 00z. Model soundings are showing an average of 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. The NAM hints at some capping aloft, so will only mention slight chance of thunder for now. Brief downpours are possible, but no severe weather is expected out of this activity. Any convection the first half of the night quickly diminishes with dry conditions prevailing after midnight. It will be much milder with lows in the 50s to potentially low 60s in NE NJ and NYC metro.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The high amplitude middle and upper level ridging will continue over the eastern seaboard on Monday. The passage of the weak surface trough will leave behind a NW-N flow and a bit deeper mixing on Monday. Weak high pressure will remain over the region. There is still uncertainty with how high max temperatures will reach mainly due to timing of a back door front and any lingering cloud cover. The deeper mixing and NW flow should allow for temperatures to reach summerlike levels based on conditions being favorable for quick warming during the first half of the day. Models also tend to run too cool in early season warmth, similar to this setup. The NBM deterministic and MOS guidance continues to run close to the 25th percentile.
Given the aforementioned setup, have gone close to the NBM 50th percentile resulting in highs in the upper 70s and low 80s across CT, Lower Hudson Valley, and Long Island. Highs in NE NJ and the NYC metro are generally in the middle 80s. The potential continues to be there for temperatures to reach the upper 80s and possibly make a run at 90 in NE NJ potentially at Central Park. See climate section for records for April 29th.
The back door cold front moves through Monday evening into Monday night from northeast to southwest. Easterly flow develops which could set the stage for a few showers, but for now will leave the forecast mainly dry. Think low cloud development is more probable especially as the front works its way east of the area.
The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east on Tuesday as a shortwave axis approaches from the west. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front to our west Tuesday and then slowly slide east across the region Tuesday night. Chances for showers begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. There may even be a few thunderstorms with instability aloft. Not anticipating strong convection at this time with the stable surface and easterly flow. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler ranging from the upper 50s and low 60s east to the upper 60s and lower 70s west.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
*Key Points*
*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period followed by a slight warmup for the week's end into next weekend.
*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area during the period.
Decent model agreement on a shortwave heading east of the forecast area on Wednesday AM as the trough axis shifts offshore. Upper ridging then builds back into the north east becoming a bit more amplified by the weekend. At the surface, weak sfc low and attendant fronts continue to head offshore on Wednesday. Shower chances remain for at least the first half of the day until the aforementioned trough axis clears the area.
Clouds will be slow to clear, but should become partly cloudy everywhere by late afternoon.
Surface high pressure then returns for Thursday and Friday, and it should remain mostly dry during this period under the large scale subsidence. Another upper low then ejects out of the Northern Plains and heads into Canada late Friday into Saturday.
An accompanying frontal system with this low then impacts the area late Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and possibly some thunder.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A warm front remains near the terminals.
Widespread MVFR will continue for the next few hours, until 14-16Z or so; then some improvement to VFR. -RA activity has shifted east of the terminals attm, and will continue to be vicinity for KSIP/KBDR/KGON.
Another round of showers after 00Z Monday, with low probability of thunder for KSWF and KHPN. Not enough confidence to put in TAFs attm but bears watching.
S winds remain rather light through the TAF period. A shift more to the SSW or SW is expected later this morning with continued veering to the WSW late this evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Improvement to VFR on Sunday may be off by a few hours. Timing of showers this evening may be an hour or two off.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR with a light SW flow.
Monday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Light winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through middle to late next week under a weak pressure gradient regime.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for April 29th
EWR: 91/1974 BDR: 86/2017 NYC: 89/1974 LGA: 88/2017* JFK: 85/2017 ISP: 85/2017
*Also occurred in previous years
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 723 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will remain nearby through this afternoon. A weak trough moves through tonight, with high pressure briefly building in Monday. A back door cold front moves through Monday night followed by another frontal system for late Tuesday. The frontal system exits the area on Wednesday as high pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday. Another frontal system then approaches for Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Two different areas of scattered showers continue early this morning. One is pushing off the east end and the other is more of a broken line extending from upstate NY down into Western Long Island. There is around 100 to 250 J/kg of MUCAPE from western Long Island north and west, so one or two rumbles of thunder are possible in any heavier shower. These showers should begin to diminish in coverage through 8 am and likely end shortly thereafter.
Otherwise, a warm front will remain nearby through the day. SW flow should give temperatures a boost compared to recent days.
There will also be some clearing late morning into the afternoon. Even with mostly cloudy skies, the air mass is much warmer with 850 mb temps 11 to 13C (compared to 3 to 6C Saturday afternoon). The spread of high temperatures has been reduced, but the NBM deterministic and MOS output still lie at or below the 25th percentile, especially for NE NJ and the NYC metro.
These outputs have typically been running too cool in similar setups, so will continue to side with the NBM 50th percentile, which yields highs in the upper 70s to around 80 for NE NJ, portions of the NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. Highs could end up a few degrees higher, especially in the normally warmer locations. Onshore component of the wind across Long Island and Connecticut will prevent temperatures from rising as much, but should still reach the 60s to around 70 away from the immediate shore.
Another shortwave passes to the north late in the afternoon and evening. Some vorticity energy dives southeastward around the periphery of the high amplitude ridging aloft, helping to push a weak surface trough across the area. Several CAMs are signaling isolated-scattered convection, first across the Lower Hudson Valley just before sunset, and then potentially the rest of the area around our just after 00z. Model soundings are showing an average of 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. The NAM hints at some capping aloft, so will only mention slight chance of thunder for now. Brief downpours are possible, but no severe weather is expected out of this activity. Any convection the first half of the night quickly diminishes with dry conditions prevailing after midnight. It will be much milder with lows in the 50s to potentially low 60s in NE NJ and NYC metro.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The high amplitude middle and upper level ridging will continue over the eastern seaboard on Monday. The passage of the weak surface trough will leave behind a NW-N flow and a bit deeper mixing on Monday. Weak high pressure will remain over the region. There is still uncertainty with how high max temperatures will reach mainly due to timing of a back door front and any lingering cloud cover. The deeper mixing and NW flow should allow for temperatures to reach summerlike levels based on conditions being favorable for quick warming during the first half of the day. Models also tend to run too cool in early season warmth, similar to this setup. The NBM deterministic and MOS guidance continues to run close to the 25th percentile.
Given the aforementioned setup, have gone close to the NBM 50th percentile resulting in highs in the upper 70s and low 80s across CT, Lower Hudson Valley, and Long Island. Highs in NE NJ and the NYC metro are generally in the middle 80s. The potential continues to be there for temperatures to reach the upper 80s and possibly make a run at 90 in NE NJ potentially at Central Park. See climate section for records for April 29th.
The back door cold front moves through Monday evening into Monday night from northeast to southwest. Easterly flow develops which could set the stage for a few showers, but for now will leave the forecast mainly dry. Think low cloud development is more probable especially as the front works its way east of the area.
The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east on Tuesday as a shortwave axis approaches from the west. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front to our west Tuesday and then slowly slide east across the region Tuesday night. Chances for showers begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. There may even be a few thunderstorms with instability aloft. Not anticipating strong convection at this time with the stable surface and easterly flow. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler ranging from the upper 50s and low 60s east to the upper 60s and lower 70s west.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
*Key Points*
*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period followed by a slight warmup for the week's end into next weekend.
*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area during the period.
Decent model agreement on a shortwave heading east of the forecast area on Wednesday AM as the trough axis shifts offshore. Upper ridging then builds back into the north east becoming a bit more amplified by the weekend. At the surface, weak sfc low and attendant fronts continue to head offshore on Wednesday. Shower chances remain for at least the first half of the day until the aforementioned trough axis clears the area.
Clouds will be slow to clear, but should become partly cloudy everywhere by late afternoon.
Surface high pressure then returns for Thursday and Friday, and it should remain mostly dry during this period under the large scale subsidence. Another upper low then ejects out of the Northern Plains and heads into Canada late Friday into Saturday.
An accompanying frontal system with this low then impacts the area late Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and possibly some thunder.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A warm front remains near the terminals.
Widespread MVFR will continue for the next few hours, until 14-16Z or so; then some improvement to VFR. -RA activity has shifted east of the terminals attm, and will continue to be vicinity for KSIP/KBDR/KGON.
Another round of showers after 00Z Monday, with low probability of thunder for KSWF and KHPN. Not enough confidence to put in TAFs attm but bears watching.
S winds remain rather light through the TAF period. A shift more to the SSW or SW is expected later this morning with continued veering to the WSW late this evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Improvement to VFR on Sunday may be off by a few hours. Timing of showers this evening may be an hour or two off.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR with a light SW flow.
Monday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Light winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through middle to late next week under a weak pressure gradient regime.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for April 29th
EWR: 91/1974 BDR: 86/2017 NYC: 89/1974 LGA: 88/2017* JFK: 85/2017 ISP: 85/2017
*Also occurred in previous years
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 2 mi | 48 min | SSE 1.9G | 30.26 | ||||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 6 mi | 33 min | S 5.8 | 51°F | 30.22 | 48°F | ||
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 14 mi | 48 min | 51°F | 30.19 | ||||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 18 mi | 48 min | 0G | 30.24 | ||||
| MHRN6 | 22 mi | 48 min | 0G | |||||
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 26 mi | 48 min | 0G | 53°F | 30.26 | |||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 31 mi | 38 min | S 3.9G | 51°F | 51°F | 30.24 | 51°F | |
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 41 mi | 48 min | S 4.1G | 30.18 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY | 4 sm | 57 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 30.24 | |
| KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 12 sm | 57 min | SSE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 48°F | 87% | 30.25 | |
| KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY | 13 sm | 15 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 30.25 | |
| KTEB TETERBORO,NJ | 14 sm | 57 min | calm | 8 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 30.24 | |
| KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY | 19 sm | 18 min | S 03 | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Mist | 48°F | 46°F | 93% | 30.21 |
| KEWR NEWARK LIBERTY INTL,NJ | 21 sm | 57 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 48°F | 87% | 30.24 | |
| KFRG REPUBLIC,NY | 21 sm | 55 min | SSW 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 48°F | 87% | 30.24 |
Throgs Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 02:27 AM EDT 7.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 09:11 AM EDT 0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:05 PM EDT 6.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:18 PM EDT 1.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 02:27 AM EDT 7.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 09:11 AM EDT 0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:05 PM EDT 6.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:18 PM EDT 1.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Throgs Neck, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.4 |
| 1 am |
| 6.4 |
| 2 am |
| 7.7 |
| 3 am |
| 7.6 |
| 4 am |
| 6.8 |
| 5 am |
| 5.8 |
| 6 am |
| 4.4 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 6.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 6.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 5.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 10:15 AM EDT 0.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:11 PM EDT -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:41 PM EDT 0.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 10:15 AM EDT 0.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:11 PM EDT -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:41 PM EDT 0.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0 |
| 1 am |
| -0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.4 |
| 3 am |
| -0.5 |
| 4 am |
| -0.6 |
| 5 am |
| -0.4 |
| 6 am |
| -0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Upton, NY,
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