Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saddle Rock, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:55PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:32 AM EST (07:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:49AMMoonset 5:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1003 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow with rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow likely in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1003 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure to the north of the area will weaken and shift eastward through Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west and a developing coastal low. The coastal low will move up the coast into the canadian maritimes through Wednesday night, while high pressure builds to the south through the remainder of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saddle Rock, NY
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location: 40.81, -73.8     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 160613
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
113 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure to the north of the area will weaken and shift
eastward through Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from
the west and a developing coastal low. The coastal low will
move up the coast into the canadian maritimes through Wednesday
night. High pressure will then build to the south through
Friday, moving into the western atlantic this weekend. Low
pressure will then approach from the west early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Forecast is generally on track. Sky forecast is tough overnight
with the western edge of the stratocu deck across LI and ct
eroding while another area of strato CU over nj and eastern pa
is encroaching on nyc. With cooling and a continued onshore flow
in the low levels, expect clouds to fill back in across the
entire area.

Otherwise, weak warm advection just above the surface has led
to the development of a stratocu deck across most of the
forecast area, with enough lift as a jet streak approaches for
some light flurries across portions of connecticut and long
island. Otherwise, generally dry conditions prevail as high
pressure to the north continues a dry northeasterly flow. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the teens to mid 20s,
generally at or slightly below climatological normals.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday
By morning with the high pressure gradually shifting offshore, a
light return flow will allow warm moist advection to develop
along the coast, increasing into the afternoon as a coastal low
approaches. Meanwhile farther west, a weak clipper will approach
leading to the development of initially light snow across the
interior, where a winter weather advisory is now in effect.

Precipitation will spread from west to east through the day, and
given warming temperatures along the coast, a rain snow mix
and or rain can be expected. Highest confidence of snow is north
and west of the nyc area, while the potential for mixed p-types
reduces confidence for the city into long island and coastal
connecticut. With the latest guidance shifting westward with the
low, potential exists for a warmer solution, and therefore lower
totals for the city into coastal areas. The heaviest
precipitation will develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
as one jet streak aloft departs and another approaches,
allowing the surface low to deepen as it moves up the coast. As
the low departs, a return to northwest flow and cold air
advection will allow temperatures to fall once again, with more
snow possible. Precipitation will then taper off from west to
east by evening.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
On the heels of an upper trough passing offshore early Thursday,
a progressive southern branch of the polar jet becomes dominant
across the lower 48. Global models are in good overall
agreement with this pattern. This will result in a gradual
warmup as the airmass transitions to pacific origin. Daytime
highs on Thursday will be near freezing, rising to around 50
by next Monday.

Conditions will be mainly dry as a large area of high pressure
over the lower mississippi valley translates slowly east and
passes to the south through the week and offshore this weekend.

A southern branch storm system then approaches late in the
weekend into early next week with a surface low forecast to
track up into the great lakes. The trailing cold front moves
through Monday night. This is likely to be a rain event with a
deep layered southerly flow preceding the system.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure to the north of the area will weaken and shift
eastward through the day today ahead of low pressure approaching
from the west and a developing coastal low.

Ne winds 5 to 10 kt will lighten and become light and variable.

Winds remain light out of the ene-e in the morning, then shift
to the E SE in the afternoon before shifting back to the e
towards the end of the TAF period.

Patchy stratus is observed across the area, making for a tough
ceiling forecast this morning. In general, would expect stratus to
redevelop and become more widespread toward sunrise, with MVFR
ceilings anticipated through much of the day. There is a chance of
flurries or light snow late in the afternoon, mainly NW of nyc
metro, but no visibility restrictions are expected at this time
until 23-02z, except a little later at kgon.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Saturday
Late tonight-Wednesday Ifr in light snow or a rain snow mix near
the coast into Wednesday.VFR possible late.

Wednesday night-Thursday Vfr. N-nw winds g20kt.

Thursday night-Saturday Vfr.

Marine
Ocean seas will be at least marginal SCA levels into Tuesday
night in developing onshore flow. Flow returns to a
northwesterly direction and begins to gust late on Wednesday,
continuing into Thursday night. Small craft wind gusts and
marginal seas will be likely on the ocean waters through
Thursday night with a chance of small craft gusts across eastern
long island sound and the eastern long island bays. Friday
through the weekend winds and seas will be below SCA levels as
high pressure builds to the south and a weaker pressure gradient
resides across the forecast waters.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 pm est
Wednesday for nyz067>070.

Nj... Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 pm est
Wednesday for njz002-004-103-105-107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz350-
353-355.

Synopsis... Md dw
near term... Md
short term... Md
long term... Dw
aviation... Pw
marine... Md dw
hydrology... Md dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 2 mi45 min S 1.9 G 1.9 24°F 32°F1033.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi45 min 25°F 34°F1033.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi45 min E 6 G 8 25°F 1033.1 hPa
MHRN6 22 mi45 min ENE 6 G 8
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 22 mi51 min 33°F1032.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 26 mi45 min NE 6 G 8.9 31°F1033.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi43 min E 5.8 G 12 30°F 41°F4 ft1031.9 hPa (-0.4)26°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi51 min N 1.9 G 4.1 20°F 35°F1032.4 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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E9
G12
NE10
G15
E7
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G16
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G11
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G10
E7
G13
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G10
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G15
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G13
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G12
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G10
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G13
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G11
E3
G8
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G5
E1
G6
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G8
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G7
S1
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1 day
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N14
G18
N13
G18
NE10
G13
NE13
G16
NE14
G17
NE16
G20
NE16
G20
NE13
G18
NE13
G17
NE12
G16
NE8
G14
N11
G17
NE12
G16
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G17
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NE13
G16
NE10
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NE12
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E6
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SW26
G32
SW20
N15
G19
N21
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N20
G26
N22
N16
G21
NE13
G18
N10
G13
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G17
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G19
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G22
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G24
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G22
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G22
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G22
N14
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N14
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NE13
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY5 mi42 minE 810.00 miOvercast25°F17°F72%1032.3 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY9 mi42 minN 010.00 miOvercast25°F18°F75%1032 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY10 mi42 minNE 810.00 miOvercast25°F19°F81%1032.6 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ14 mi42 minNNE 710.00 miFair24°F14°F65%1032.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY19 mi37 minNNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy21°F14°F74%1032.4 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ21 mi42 minNNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy23°F17°F78%1032.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY21 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast24°F21°F88%1032.8 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12N10NE10NE16
G21
NE13NE12NE13NE15NE13NE16NE14NE13NE12NE14NE14E12E10NE8E7E9E7E5NE5E8
1 day agoNW13NW15NW14N11N14N10NW13N12N11N13N13N11N15N15
G21
N12N10N11N10NE11N9N10N11NE11N10
2 days agoS8S14
G20
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G26
S11NW17
G27
NW23
G30
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G33
NW24
G32
NW21
G25
NW18
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NW15NW18NW16NW22
G26
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G29
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G23
NW18
G27
NW16NW15NW18
G24
NW14
G24
NW19NW14

Tide / Current Tables for Throgs Neck, New York
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Throgs Neck
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Tue -- 05:29 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:22 AM EST     7.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:03 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:51 PM EST     6.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.65.33.41.70.90.50.51.73.85.86.97.37.26.24.32.20.90.2-0.20.32.14.45.96.6

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:26 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:02 AM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:20 AM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:30 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:25 PM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:43 PM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.2-0.10.10.610.70.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.50.90.90.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.