Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Carlstadt, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:36PM Sunday November 19, 2017 5:13 AM EST (10:13 UTC) Moonrise 8:35AMMoonset 6:46PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 350 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 350 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong cold will sweep across the area early this morning with high pressure building in its wake. The high will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. Another area of high pressure will build late week, followed by low pressure moving across on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carlstadt , NJ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.81, -74.06     debug

Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kokx 190932
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
432 am est Sun nov 19 2017

A strong cold will sweep across the area early this morning with
high pressure building in its wake. The high will pass to the
south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday.

Another area of high pressure will build late week, followed by
low pressure moving across on Saturday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Prefrontal showers moving across the area early this morning.

Although there were a few lightning strikes in southern and
central nj earlier, it appears that the airmass has become a
bit more stable, most likely due to both low and mid level
inversions. Thus, have left thunder out of the forecast.

09z obs indicate that the warm front has just lifted through all
locations except the western half of orange county. It should be
dragged through the remainder of the county shortly before the
cold fropa, which is quickly tracking eastward from central pa,
with a brief increase in temps. Front timed to move through the
metro area around 12z with showers ending, although there will
be a burst of higher winds right behind it.

Uncertainty is still high at this point regarding wind
potential. The warm front has moved through coastal areas, with
winds slowly increasing in its wake, though with a strengthening
inversion above the surface, reflected by a developing stratus
field across eastern long island and connecticut. Vad wind
profile data from kokx and kjfk radar show 50-55kt at 2000 ft as
the low-level jet moves across the area, and so depending on
the height of the inversion at least wind advisory level
sustained speeds and gusts may mix to the surface early this
morning prior to the cold front arrival. Although winds will be
strong, based on current observations and expected conditions,
sustained winds near 40 mph and gusts near 60 mph appear less
likely, so the high wind warning will be dropped from eastern

Otherwise, winds may briefly weaken as showers move through, before
strengthening ahead of and behind the cold front. Thereafter, strong
winds appear likely across all areas, particularly in the late
morning and afternoon as the system departs. Current obs in maryland
are showing gusts in the range of 45-50 mph immediately following
the frontal passage, so the wind advisory will remain in place.

High temps will likely occur early this morning for many
locations, before falling during the late morning and aftn from
w to E as strong CAA commences.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Monday
Winds gradually decrease tonight, although will still remain
quite gusty with the departing low still strengthening as it
lifts into SE canada and high pres building to the s. All high
res guidance indicates that lake effect streamers remain N and w
of the area, except perhaps for a few hours this eve in orange
county. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies tonight will give way to
mostly sunny conds on Monday. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s
tonight and highs in the 40s on Monday, although gusty winds
will make it feel like its only in the 30s.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Aloft, models agree early in the period as initial shortwave passes
east northeast. Downstream shortwave will then make fast eastward
progress. Here is where some differences arise. Northern stream
potent shortwave tracks across the great lakes region as it lifts
northeast, with most of the energy and associated dynamics lifting
well to our north Wednesday. Southern stream trough lags a bit as it
moves across the gulf states. By late Wednesday into Thursday,
operational GFS seems to be a deep strong outlier with regard to
closed low around the gulf states as the trough makes eastward

This upper trough weakens over the western atlantic Thursday, with
next shortwave in the northern stream moving eastward toward the
northeast by next weekend.

At the sfc, high pressure passes to the south Monday and Tuesday.

Gusty NW flow will back around the SW as the high tracks east.

Thereafter, a cold front passes Wednesday. This front is associated
with northern stream shortwave. This looks like the best chance for
measurable precipitation, late Tuesday night into Wednesday, chance

Waves of low pressure likely develop along the front well to our
south in the Wednesday night Thursday time frame. Again, GFS appears
to be an outlier with wave of low pressure developing and passing
close enough for measurable precip Thursday. Otherwise, model
consensus suggest any precip remains to our southeast as ridge
builds to the NW and waves remain far enough to the southeast.

Will maintain a dry forecast as a result, leaning toward consensus.

However, this will need to be watched.

Dry through Friday before the next chance for precip arrives with
the shortwave, clipper low Saturday.

As for temperatures Monday-Saturday, followed a model MOS blend.

Below normal temperatures Monday will warm to slightly above normal
Tuesday as WAA occurs behind the high. Behind a cold front
Wednesday, normal temps likely fall to below normal Thursday and
Friday before rebounding yet again in WAA ahead of the clipper low

Aviation 09z Sunday through Thursday
A cold front moves through around daybreak with high pressure
building behind it through this evening.

S flow will increase through the morning hours with gusts returning
to all terminals between 9-11z. Kjfk may see stronger sustained
speeds without gusts initially until flow shifts more to the sw-w
this morning. The gusts will initially be 20-30 kt, increasing to 30-
40 kt towards day break. Some eastern terminals may see peak gusts
45 kt. Llws is also forecast until around 12z. S-sw winds shift to
the w-wnw 12z-15z with gusts frequently 35-40 kt during the day. The
gusts will begin to weaken late in the afternoon and early in the

MainlyVFR-MVFR conditions to start with conditions improving to
vfr 12z-15z behind the cold front.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Monday Vfr. W-nw winds g20-30kt. Gusts diminish gradually at

Tuesday MainlyVFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night in showers.

Sw winds g15-20kt.

Wednesday MVFR possible with showers during the day.VFR at
night. W-nw winds g15-20kt.

Thursday Vfr.

Seas continue to build ahead of strong southwest flow.

Gale-force winds are already occurring across the ocean waters
and will spread elsewhere through the day, especially following
the cold frontal passage later this morning. Less confidence
exists in storm- force winds across the eastern sound and ocean
areas east of fire island, though given strong winds above the
surface, potential certainly exists for these to mix to the
surface. Gale-force winds will continue into tonight, before
gradually weakening to sca-levels tomorrow. SCA conditions may
continue through Tuesday night before winds and seas gradually
subside into Wednesday through Friday as high pressure builds
across the area.

A few bands of moderate to locally heavy showers with a strong
cold frontal passage this morning should cause no more than
local nuisance impacts. Additional rainfall of 1 4 to 1 2 inch,
through late morning.

Tides coastal flooding
Latest surge is running between 1 2 to 1 1 2 ft on the south
shore bays of li. At this rate, minor coastal flooding
benchmarks could be met, however winds will be shifting to the
w NW right before high tide, thus these values could decrease a
bit in western portions of the bays and cause the start of tidal
piling across eastern portions of the great south bay into
moriches bay. Have maintained the coastal flood statement
addressing brief and localized minor coastal flooding impacts.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for ctz007>012.

Wind advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for ctz005-006.

Ny... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for nyz071>075-

Wind advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for nyz067>070.

Nj... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for njz006.

Wind advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for njz002-004-103>108.

Marine... Storm warning until noon est today for anz330-340-345-350-353.

Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz335-338-355.

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 18 mi43 min S 16 G 19 57°F 54°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi84 min SSW 18 G 23 58°F 1 ft55°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi83 min SSW 23 G 29 59°F 59°F9 ft991.5 hPa (-2.6)56°F

Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ3 mi82 minSSW 14 G 2710.00 miLight Rain58°F54°F87%990.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY5 mi2.4 hrsno data8.00 miLight Rain57°F53°F87%992.6 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ9 mi82 minSSW 19 G 257.00 miRain and Breezy58°F55°F90%991.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi82 minSSW 15 G 2410.00 miLight Rain59°F54°F83%991.2 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ13 mi80 minVar 5 G 158.00 miLight Rain56°F55°F97%991.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY18 mi82 minSSW 196.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy57°F55°F96%992.6 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ19 mi78 minSSW 10 G 157.00 miRain55°F55°F100%990.2 hPa

Wind History from TEB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmS8S9S8S6S6CalmCalmS5S7S7S4S7SW4CalmCalmS9S14
1 day agoNW15
2 days agoS6SW8SW5SW6SW8SW7--W13W13

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek entrance, Garretts Reach, Hackensack River, New Jersey
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Mill Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:21 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:25 AM EST     6.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:46 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EST     5.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:37 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:59 AM EST     1.94 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:25 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:30 AM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:20 PM EST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:39 PM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.