Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 12:23 PM   Moonset 2:06 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 843 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon - .
Tonight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Showers early this evening, then showers and slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this evening. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Slight chance of tstms in the morning. Chance of showers. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 843 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure approaches from the south this evening and then meanders just south of the area tonight before slowly pulling away to the southeast Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 160004 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 804 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure approaches from the south this evening and then meanders just south of the area tonight before slowly pulling away to the southeast Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Low pressure is currently located off the Delmarva coast and is approaching our area as it deepens. Aloft, the associated upper level trough becomes closed off this evening. The upper level low and surface low slow down and meander just south of the area tonight and early Thursday morning before pulling away to the southeast later on Thursday.

Mainly overrunning light rain was seen earlier today and will continue this afternoon, with some embedded heavier rain showers. As the low gets closer to the area this evening and overnight, strong low and mid level lift located northeast of the center of the low will move over eastern portions of the area. At the same time, higher pwat and slightly warmer air wrapped up in the low will get pulled into eastern areas. This will result in some elevated instability, with MUCAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. All 12z CAM runs were in good agreement with consistent convective activity over eastern Long Island and southeastern CT tonight into early Thursday morning as the low meanders. With that, they are spitting out some pretty high isolated QPF amounts. Given the consistency in the guidance, forecast QPF has bumped up quite a bit over eastern areas overall. Now expecting 2 to 3 inches across eastern LI and southeastern CT, with locally higher amounts possible. These higher amounts are expected to be very isolated and confidence in any flooding is low at this time.
However, there is the potential for isolated flash flooding and have highlighted this in the HWO. Given the elevated instability, thunderstorms are also possible across these eastern areas tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Some of the moderate to heavy rain as well as isolated thunderstorms could be ongoing Thursday morning, but should not continue into the afternoon. The low slowly pulls away, with lingering light rain chances across the whole area through the end of the day. Any isolated flood risk would be early in the morning. We stay locked under cloud cover with the persistent E/NE flow and highs will be in the low to mid 60s.

Ridging starts to build in aloft Thursday night as high pressure noses down from the northwest. The area will likely be dry by midnight Thursday night. Dry conditions expected through Friday, with some clearing over the eastern half of the area. Highs will be back in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
*Key Points*

*An unsettled pattern for the weekend followed by drier weather early next week.

*Below normal temperatures to start the period with a gradual warm up to near or slightly above normal by mid next week.

There continues to be uncertainty in the evolution of key features in the long term. Mid- and upper ridging to the north of the area allows for a closed upper low to eject out of the Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. There are differences in the global models with respect to this feature in terms of magnitude and timing. One notable change with the available 12Z guidance is a trend further south with a bit later development of the surface low in association with the upper low. This would keep much of the weekend dry for the area under predominately easterly flow. The easterly flow would likely main cloudy conditions with cool temperatures with the surface low to the south Saturday through Sunday.

By Monday into Tuesday, model divergence continues as the more progressive EC takes the low to the northeast and out of the region while the GFS maintains a more cutoff solution and meanders the surface low off the NC coast. Weak ridging builds in thereafter, with a shortwave and low pressure system approaching from the west late Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure off the Middle Atlantic coast slowly tracks towards the area through tonight. The low slowly moves southeast Thursday.

IFR to MVFR conditions this evening, though do expect some variations in flight categories through the night. Some improvement to MVFR is expected late Thursday morning into the early afternoon.

Mainly light rain will continue this afternoon and should be most widespread across Long Island and southern CT. Similar conditions will continue tonight with potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. There is chance that the light rain is intermittent light rain over the NYC metro terminals on NW. Spotty rain is possible Thursday morning. There is also a chance for an isolated thunderstorm for these eastern areas, with the best chances for KGON, KISP, and KBDR.

E-ENE winds will become NE tonight. Lower confidence in wind speeds and gusts through the period. Wind speeds should become 10-15 kt into this evening with gusts 15-20 kt early this evening. Gusts likely become 20-25 kt with potential of a isolated gusts to 30 kt near the coast. There is a chance gusts end up occasional overnight. Winds shift to the NNE to NE late tonight and Thursday and diminish somewhat to 10-15 kt sustained with gusts 15 to around 20 kt. An isolated gust of 25 to 30 kt is possible, mainly in the morning hours.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence flight category and wind speed/wind gust forecast.

Amendments likely for change in flight categories. Timing of IFR this evening could be off by 1-3 hours.

Wind gusts may be occasional this evening/tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night: MVFR to IFR. A chance of showers especially early. NE winds diminishing.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers, mainly Saturday night and Sunday. SE winds G15-20kt on Sunday.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Low pressure approaches the area this evening and meanders just south of the area tonight into early Thursday. Winds and seas will increase and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters tonight through Thursday and then lingering on the ocean waters through Thursday night. Gusts will peak around 30 kts for all waters, occasionally reaching 35 kts on the ocean waters.
Seas on the ocean waters will reach 7 to 10 ft with waves on the LI Sound reaching 3 to 4 ft. Gusts will taper off Thursday into Thursday night, with 5 ft seas lingering on the ocean through Friday potentially.

Sub SCA conditions are likely thereafter into Monday.

HYDROLOGY
Forecast rainfall totals have increased across eastern Long Island and southeastern CT. Moderate to heavy rain is expected overnight into early Thursday morning, resulting in 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Any higher amounts are expected to be very isolated at this time. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over these areas and isolated flash flooding can not be ruled out, especially over southeastern CT where the flash flood guidance is a but lower.

There are no hydrologic concerns from Thursday afternoon onward.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Wed -- 12:36 AM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:22 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:28 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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