Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hampton Bays, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:05PM Friday October 19, 2018 8:33 PM EDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 1:45AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 728 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 728 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure along the mid atlantic and southeast coast will move into the western atlantic tonight. A cold front will approach late tonight and move across the waters late Saturday into Saturday evening. Strong high pressure builds west of the region for the second half of the weekend, building into the local area Sunday night into Monday. This high pressure pushes offshore Monday followed by a weak clipper like system tracking well north of the waters on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hampton Bays, NY
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location: 40.85, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200005
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
805 pm edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure along the mid atlantic and southeastern coast will
drift into the western atlantic tonight as low pressure moves
through eastern canada and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The cold front will move across the region late
Saturday into Saturday evening. Strong high pressure builds
west of the region for the second half of the weekend, building
into the local area Sunday night into Monday. This high will
shift off the mid atlantic coast on Monday followed by a weak
clipper like system tracking through new england on Tuesday.

High pressure then returns for mid week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Forecast is on track with only minor changes made for this
update to reflect current conditions. Light returns seen on
radar to the west of the CWA that should make its way into
western orange county through 830 pm. However, large
temperature dew point spread will mean plenty of virga, though
a stray showers cannot be ruled out.

The forecast remains consistent with the previous forecast and
current model guidance. As such, precipitation is expected to
develop later this evening as the upper ridge moves into the
western atlantic and one shortwave rotates through the eastern
longwave trough. Increased probabilities to likely for the
overnight with increased confidence and model consistency. This
will be associated with a second shortwave rotating through the
upper longwave trough and associated cold frontal boundary.

With the front isentropic lift will be increasing. A mild
airmass remains in place ahead of the cold front and
temperatures are expected to remain mild and not drop off too
quickly.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
The amplifying eastern trough and strong western ridge will keep
the progression of the front slow, and the chances of
precipitation will remain through Saturday and into Saturday
evening. The low level forcing and isentropic lift with the cold
front will be decreasing Saturday and lowered probabilities to
low chance and slight chance. However, the upper shortwave
remain rather strong and with the amplifying upper trough these
chances may need to be increased. For now, the precipitation
looks to be over around or just after 06z Sunday, with the
surface cold front east to the forecast area. Strong cold
advection Saturday night will send temperatures to below
seasonal levels once again.

Long term Sunday through Friday
High pressure builds into the region on Sunday with dry and
breezy conditions as the pressure gradient over the area remains
fairly tight. Although downsloping winds should offset some of
the cold air advection, high temperatures are still forecast to
fall short of normal highs by about 10 degrees. Winds subside
Sunday night as the ridge axis of high pressure shifts in. This
will allow temperatures to fall below freezing for many inland
locations and pine barrens region, with mid and upper 30s for
coastal sections.

The high moves offshore on Monday with a slightly moderating
airmass over the region. High temperatures will still be below
normals however. A warm front approaches Monday night, followed
by a cold front during Tuesday. These are associated with a low
pressure system moving through new england. Models haven't
really trended wetter for this time period, so will continue
with a dry forecast for now. The warm advection prior to the
cold front will at least allow for highs to reach near-normal
levels on Tuesday.

High pressure builds in behind this system, with dry weather
for Wednesday and Thursday. A return to below-normal
temperatures both days with Wednesday possibly being on the
breezy side. Models show high pressure holding on long enough to
go with a dry forecast for Friday as well.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Strong low pressure will move across southeast canada through
Saturday with its attending cold front approaching from the
west. This front is forecast to move across area terminals
Saturday afternoon, followed by a reinforcing cold front
Saturday evening.

Gusts in SW flow continue to be occasional early this eve, so
have pushed onset forward a couple of hours, to when the
surface high should be farther offshore and a stronger pressure
gradient develops. Then expect gusts close to 25 kt at kjfk and
either side of 20 kt elsewhere tonight, and even then they
could be more occasional at times or even drop off for a time.

Moisture streaming in well ahead of the front should lead to a
period of light showers and MVFR conditions from about 11z-14z at
the nyc metros. It is possible the onset could be an hour or two
sooner than that.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 22 mi64 min SW 18 G 23 60°F 65°F3 ft
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi44 min SW 25 G 29 60°F 63°F6 ft1017.2 hPa (-1.2)49°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 32 mi34 min 59°F 61°F1016.4 hPa (-1.2)
44069 33 mi34 min WSW 16 G 21 58°F 55°F47°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi34 min WSW 15 G 20 58°F 63°F1016.7 hPa (-0.8)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi49 min SW 24 G 27 59°F 1016.7 hPa43°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 41 mi34 min SW 11 G 16 58°F 64°F1016.2 hPa (-1.1)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi34 min SW 11 G 18 1016.2 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi41 minSW 9 G 1710.00 miFair58°F41°F53%0 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY19 mi38 minSW 1010.00 miFair58°F41°F53%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmW10W12SW9SW10SW11SW16
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W6W11SW9SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Ponquogue Bridge, Shinnecock Bay, Long Island, New York (2)
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Ponquogue Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:03 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:07 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:20 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.31.61.921.91.61.310.70.50.611.41.82.12.22.21.91.51.10.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:12 AM EDT     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:25 PM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:38 PM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.40.910.90.6-0-0.5-1-1.2-1.1-0.9-0.50.20.91.11.10.90.3-0.4-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.