Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 10:58 PM   Moonset 7:03 AM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 328 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 328 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Strong high pressure slides southeast of the region tonight into Saturday, and offshore Saturday night as a warm front approaches. The warm front moves through the region Sunday morning, with a weakening cold front passes through Sunday night. A stronger cold front approaches Tuesday and moves across the region Tuesday night. A series of frontal systems may pass through the area late next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 262012 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 412 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure slides southeast of the region tonight into Saturday, and farther offshore Saturday Night as a warm front approaches. The warm front moves through the region Sunday morning, with a weakening cold front passes through Sunday Night. Weak high pressure builds across the area Sunday night into Monday, before a back door cold front works across the area late in the day Monday. Another frontal system approaches from the west on Tuesday with a frontal wave passing close to the area Tuesday night. High pressure then briefly follows for midweek before yet another frontal system impacts the area Thursday night into Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Northern stream shortwave trough slides east of northern New England this evening, with high amplitude upper ridging building in to the west tonight. At the surface, the center of Canadian high pressure strengthens southeast of the region tonight.

Synoptically forced seabreeze will continue to work well inland, stabilizing temps in the 50s to around 60s through late afternoon.

Another night of good radiational cooling conds tonight, although with a slightly moderated and moistened airmass, temps should be a few degrees warmer than last night. Temps expected to drop into the lower to mid 30s with frost conditions across interior of NE NJ, LoHud, and S CT, and pine barrens of LI.
Upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere, except mid 40s for NYC/NJ metro.

SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper ridging axis builds just to the west of the region through the weekend. At the same time, good agreement in a vigorous closed upper low over the northern plains today shearing through Ontario and Quebec this weekend. This will briefly flatten the amplitude of the ridge this weekend. At the surface, the center of Canadian high pressure remains just S/SE of the area Saturday. Low pressure tracks NE through Ontario/Quebec this weekend with associated warm front approaching Saturday Night and lifting NE of the area Sunday AM.

Continued moderation of airmass on Saturday with strengthening return flow around high pressure to the SE and approaching warm front to the west. Strong sea breeze signature will likely push maritime airmass well inland and keeping temps several degrees below seasonable once again (upper 50s to lower 60s) for much of the coastal plain, and lower 60s to 65 for far interior. In addition, increasing high clouds streaming in ahead of approaching warm front and over the top of the ridge axis will likely filter sunshine in the afternoon. Appears any light precip should stay west of the region during the day though.

Models in fairly good agreement signaling a period of showers Saturday night ahead/along warm front in response to left front quad of ULJ streak, shortwave energy rounding ridge axis and theta-e advection of 1 1/2 to 2 std PWAT airmass. Lift and moisture is modest with instability lacking, so shower activity should be generally light to moderate.

Forcing lifts north Sunday morning, with warm front dissipating or lifting north, ending shower threat. Surface troughing appears to linger over the area, with a weak cold front approaching late. This, along with a train of weak vorts riding over the ridge, will likely have considerable cloud cover lingering over the area. Temps will continue to moderate to above seasonable levels with strong waa aloft, but still quite a bit of spread on max temps dependent on cloud cover, seabreeze timing, and depth of mixing. Deterministic NBM temps are generally running close to the 25th percentile of the NBM ensemble spread. Will lean towards a blend of deterministic and 50th percentile of NBM, with potential for temps to be several degrees warmer than forecast across NYC/NJ metro and interior with breaks in cloud cover.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
*Key Points*

*Unseasonably warm on Monday, followed by cooler conditions Tuesday, but still above normal.

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms with multiple frontal systems to impact the area during the period.

At the start of the period, a highly amplified ridge along the eastern third of the country will translate eastward, while an upper low over the Northern Plains lifts up into central Canada.
The latter of which will send a weak frontal system across the area Tuesday afternoon/night. Before then though, strengthening high pressure across eastern Canada will send a back door cold front across New England Monday and across the area by evening. However, before that happens, Monday could very will be the warmest day this spring, in fact more summerlike. Ingredients will include the area being in the warm sector, a high amplitude ridge aloft, and an offshore flow to start the day (seabreezes in the afternoon). Based on recent NBM performance in some of these warmer air masses this spring, along with the MOS, it has been too cool. So for a starting point, have blended the deterministic NBM with the NBM50th (middle of distribution). This results in highs in the lower to mid 80s inland, and generally in the 70s elsewhere. This is about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. This does look short-lived as an easterly flow behind the back door cold fonts cool things down closer to normal for Tuesday. What is interesting to note though, the box and whisker plots of the NBM show a tremendous range in highs Tuesday, in some cases more than 20 degrees from the 10th to 90th percentiles. This is most apparent across western sections of the forecast area on the edge of the maritime airmass.

A dissipating frontal system impacts the area Tuesday afternoon and evening with a chance of showers and thunderstorm. High pressure will follow for Wednesday before yet another frontal system potentially impacts the area late in the week. Temperatures during this time will still be a above normal (5 to 10 degrees), especially as one works away from coastal locations during the daytime hours.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR. High pressure remains near the terminals through tonight.
A warm front approaches the region on Saturday.

Southerly flow, near 10 kt, into this evening. Winds lighten tonight and may go more SSW or even light and vrb overnight.
Southerly flow persists on Saturday, with speeds increasing into the low teens by the afternoon. Lowering cigs during the day as a warm front begins to approach and light rain becomes possible toward 20Z and thereafter at city terminals and KSWF.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Light rain possible late Sat afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday PM: Becoming MVFR late with a chance of rain Sat evening and night.

Sunday: Return to VFR by afternoon. Light SW flow.

Monday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through early next week under weal pressure regime. Coastal jet development Sat aft/eve could have marginal SCA wind gusts (20-25kt) for ocean waters and nearshore around the entrance to NY Harbor.

Much of next week looks to be below sub-SCA with a weak flow across the waters. Potential fog development will have to be watched due to warmer air moving over the colder, but it is much too early for any specific details on timing and extent.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>008- 012.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ067>070- 079-081.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ002.
MARINE...None.

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Ponquoque Point, Shinnecock Bay, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Fri -- 02:51 AM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:45 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:55 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:01 PM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
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Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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