Pelham Manor, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelham Manor, NY

May 7, 2024 4:15 AM EDT (08:15 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM
Moonrise 5:13 AM   Moonset 7:50 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 344 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024

Overnight - NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.

Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.

Wed night - W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers with isolated tstms in the evening.

Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain and chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of tstms. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Fri - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

Fri night - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 344 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A slow moving frontal boundary gets to the south today before lifting back north as a warm front before stalling again through mid week. Low pressure develops to the west on Thursday and pushes a frontal boundary through by Friday. The low and its associated front should be east of the waters to begin the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelham Manor, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 070756 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 356 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
A slow moving frontal boundary gets south of the area today before lifting back north as a warm front before stalling again through mid week. Low pressure develops to the west on Thursday and pushes a frontal boundary through by Friday. The low and its associated front should be east of the area to begin the weekend, potentially followed by another cold front on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold front will slowly push to the south of the area throughout today. The winds will begin out of the north and northeast staying under 10 mph, and likely closer to 5 mph at most places. The light synoptic pressure gradient along with an increasing amount of sunshine resulting in sfc heating should promote sea breeze development during the afternoon. The sea breeze is expected to propagate to the north into the evening. This will cool coastal and eastern sections down after warming temperatures during the day.
Temperatures before any sea breeze moves in should get temperatures into the 70s for the most part, with some lower 80s towards NYC and points west.

For tonight weak high pressure to the north will give way to a frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes which begins to advance northeast as a warm front. This will bring an increase in cloud cover tonight, with the evening remaining dry.
After 6z however the column as a whole moistens with chances for shower activity increasing during the pre-dawn hours and into Wed AM. A light southerly flow should begin to nudge dew points up towards daybreak Wed. With this have included patchy fog for now, with perhaps an upgrade to areas of fog in subsequent forecast packages as a warm front draws closer. Lows should average above normal with lows mainly in the 50s, to around 60 in the metropolitan areas.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Lots of low clouds with some fog early, and some showers around for Wednesday morning as the front begins to slowly nudge into the area.
Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary. The main question deals with how quickly the frontal complex can advance to the north and east. The front should slowly press east based on model consensus throughout the day. If this can slow and the area can reside in the warm sector much of the day with breaks in the clouds developing, then perhaps a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms could develop with fx soundings indicating some elevated CAPE on the order of 500 J or thereabouts on the GFS and 1000 to 1500 J with the NAM. However, by the time max heating takes places the soundings may dry out enough to preclude any convective development. At this time due to the uncertainty around the progression of things, it seems prudent to keep chance to slight chance PoPs in place through the afternoon along with slight chance / isolated thunder with no enhanced wording at this time due to the conditionality of convective initiation. With this said SPC does have the area under a marginal risk of severe weather on Wednesday.
Winds will likely be out of the south and should result in a large temperature spread across the region with breaks of afternoon sun.
Temperatures by the afternoon are likely to range anywhere from the lower 80s across western sections, to 70s, with mainly 60s across coastal and eastern most sections. Some 50s are possible by the start of the evening across the twin forks of Long Island with a wind off the colder ocean.

For Wednesday night the region should be in-between weather disturbances. Another low pressure system takes shape across the Midwest with a frontal boundary extending east the Ohio Valley. This boundary likely approaches towards Thu AM as a warm front as low pressure lifts into the Ohio Valley. After some clearing late Wed and much of Wed night, depending on timing clouds could increase again towards the pre-dawn hours for early Thu AM. It should remain rain free through the night with temperatures averaging somewhat above normal with lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid levels show nearly zonal flow with a trough moving in Thursday into Friday. The local region gets brief mid level ridging Saturday before another trough approaches for Sunday into early next week.

A weakening wave of low pressure moves farther east into Thursday with a trailing cold front that will weaken and linger to the south of the area. Models depict a brief break in any rain or unsettled weather, with mainly dry conditions anticipated Wednesday night into early Thursday.

This front will eventually strengthen and move northward back towards the area Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west.
The front will return north as a warm front but may stay south of Long Island. Vertical forcing with low level omega increases Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

The center of the low reaches near the forecast area Thursday evening and eventually moves east of the area Friday. There are some model differences in terms of the number of waves of low pressure and their movement.

There is forecast an increasing chance for rainfall Thursday into Thursday night. Rain expected mid afternoon Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Some elevated instability is shown to be a possibility so there could be a few thunderstorms. Chances for rain decrease for late Thursday night into Friday but become higher across interior locations Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.

The models exhibit more coherence in their pressure prognostication Friday night into Saturday as GFS, ECMWF and Canadian in that they depict low pressure getting farther east of the region with weak high pressure moving into the local area for the weekend. Chances for rain lower Friday night.

Would expect mainly dry conditions for the first half of the weekend with a brief return of high pressure. However the high pressure will be of weak magnitude and very transient, allowing for a large trough to approach Sunday into Sunday night before flattening out going into early next week.

At the surface, more low pressure areas approach Sunday through potentially Monday as well. However, model differences become more apparent in this timeframe as well. Chances for rain increase Sunday and Monday, mainly in the afternoon into early evening hours.

Temperatures overall are forecast to not deviate too significantly from seasonal normal values.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front continues to push through the terminals, nearly reaching the coast as of 6Z. Weak high pressure briefly returns on Tuesday, before a warm front lifts through overnight into Wednesday morning.

Mainly VFR, though KISP has occasionally gone LIFR tonight as stratus moved onto Long Island. This should improve over the next couple of hours as winds shift to the west then north behind the frontal passage. Speeds light thru the TAF period, at or under 10 kt. Direction goes southerly for most this afternoon with sea breeze development. Front approaches late Tue night and conditions quickly decline to at least MVFR after 6Z Wed with rain and mist developing.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shift this afternoon/evening may be off by a couple of hours.

Timing of MVFR conds Wed morning may be off by a couple of hours. IFR possible toward 12Z Wed.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late Tuesday night: Chance of showers late with MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of a thunderstorm inland toward Wed AM.

Wednesday: MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. Cond improving to VFR late day. Chance of showers. Tstms possible mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, especially in the afternoon and at night.

Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.

Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A marine dense fog advisory remains in effect through the pre- dawn hours early this morning. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday night as seas will essentially average close to 3 ft.

Marginal SCA conditions become possible for Friday and Friday night for mainly the ocean waters with 4 to 5 ft seas and gusts which get closer to 20 kt. Otherwise, mainly sub SCA conditions are forecast through Saturday, with perhaps a slight exception of marginal small craft seas for the eastern ocean during the day Saturday.

HYDROLOGY
WPC has placed mainly western interior portions of the areas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday. The risk of flooding from heavy rainfall appears to be limited at this time for later this week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night. Thus compared to the previous high tide earlier in the night, perhaps a more widespread minor flooding event could necessitate advisories for the western south shore bays and the SW CT sound shore for the nighttime cycles from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Eventually statements and / or advisories for these 3 high tide cycles may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound, SW Suffolk County, as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi46 min N 1.9G1.9 61°F 29.82
44022 - Execution Rocks 5 mi31 min E 1.9 60°F 29.8059°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 15 mi46 min 61°F 56°F29.76
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi46 min NNW 2.9G2.9 63°F 29.81
MHRN6 24 mi46 min NNW 1.9G2.9
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi46 min WNW 4.1G5.1 60°F 58°F29.83
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 34 mi26 min W 5.8G5.8 59°F 55°F3 ft29.80
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 40 mi46 min N 4.1G5.1 62°F 29.75


Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY 6 sm24 minNNW 0610 smMostly Cloudy63°F57°F83%29.81
KTEB TETERBORO,NJ 13 sm24 minNNE 0310 smClear Shallow Fog 61°F59°F94%29.81
KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY 15 sm24 minNNW 037 smMostly Cloudy57°F57°F100%29.81
KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY 15 sm19 mincalm10 smClear63°F61°F94%29.82
KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY 16 sm19 minNNW 0510 smClear57°F54°F88%29.82
KEWR NEWARK LIBERTY INTL,NJ 22 sm24 minNNE 0410 smMostly Cloudy63°F61°F94%29.81
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY 23 sm22 minNNW 036 smClear Mist 57°F57°F100%29.81
Link to 5 minute data for KLGA


Wind History from LGA
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for City Island, New York
   
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City Island
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Tue -- 05:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     -1.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:42 AM EDT     7.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:58 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 11:52 PM EDT     8.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

City Island, New York, Tide feet
12
am
8.3
1
am
6.9
2
am
4.5
3
am
2
4
am
0.2
5
am
-0.8
6
am
-1.1
7
am
-0.3
8
am
1.8
9
am
4.6
10
am
6.6
11
am
7.6
12
pm
7.7
1
pm
7
2
pm
5.1
3
pm
2.7
4
pm
0.8
5
pm
-0.1
6
pm
-0.5
7
pm
0.1
8
pm
1.9
9
pm
4.7
10
pm
7.1
11
pm
8.5


Tide / Current for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
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Tue -- 02:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:38 AM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:54 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:02 PM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
12
am
-0.8
1
am
-0.5
2
am
-0.1
3
am
0.1
4
am
0.5
5
am
1
6
am
1.1
7
am
0.7
8
am
0.2
9
am
-0.1
10
am
-0.4
11
am
-0.7
12
pm
-0.8
1
pm
-0.7
2
pm
-0.3
3
pm
-0
4
pm
0.3
5
pm
0.8
6
pm
1.1
7
pm
0.8
8
pm
0.4
9
pm
0
10
pm
-0.3
11
pm
-0.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   
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Upton, NY,





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