Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 4:47 AM   Moonset 6:31 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 335 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - S winds around 5 kt, becoming N around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers until early morning. Patchy fog early this evening. Areas of fog late this evening and early morning, then patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms after midnight. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then slight chance of rain after midnight. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain and chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of tstms. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri night - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sat - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 335 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure on Tuesday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Tuesday night that moves across the area on Wednesday. A lingering frontal boundary south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday will eventually strengthen as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure moves across Thursday night into Friday. The low will be east of the region Friday night into next weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 062017 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 417 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure building in on Tuesday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Tuesday night that moves across the area on Wednesday. A lingering frontal boundary south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday will eventually strengthen as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure moves across Thursday night into Friday. The low will be east of the region Friday night into next weekend. High pressure thereafter will be weak with more areas of low pressure potentially impacting the area late weekend into early next week.



NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Shortwave energy rounding the base of an upper low over eastern Canada will give a cold front to the NW enough of a push to pass through the area tonight. The front is forecast to pass south of Long Island during the early morning hours with light and variable winds becoming light northerly. A spotty shower is possible this evening along and ahead of the front, but the forcing is weak and the airmass is relatively stable.

There is one area of concern tonight and that is with the extent of low clouds/fog that could potentially develop ahead of the cold front. This looks more likely near the coast and patchy inland. Confidence for dense fog is low at this time as model soundings show drying of the vertical moisture profile.
However, coastal locations do maintain some shallow moisture.

It will be a mild night with lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the around 50s well north and west, to the mid and upper 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Quiet and warm for Tuesday as weak high pressure builds behind a cold front continuing to work south of the area. Ridging building aloft with warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to get into the lower and mid 70s most locations, and even around 80 across portions of the NYC metro.
Immediate coastal locations, especially along the south shore of LI will likely be cooler with a weak onshore flow. There is also some uncertainty with 85h moisture poised just south and west along our doorstep. This could impact cloud cover.

For Tuesday night, the upper ridge weakens and translates eastward, while another piece of energy kicks out of the mid Mississippi Valley. This will send a frontal wave across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and across New England on Wednesday.
The best thermal forcing will be during the morning hours with a good chance of showers. Instability is marginal but increasing into Wednesday. So have a mention of a slight chance of thunder. The area then gets into the warm sector from west to east on Wednesday, with perhaps the exception of eastern LI and SE CT. This will be tricky for temperatures as the western half of the area could get into the lower 80s, possibly higher depending on when the clearing takes place. NBM box and whisker plots show a decent range between the 25th and 75th percentiles of about 10 degrees. For KEWR, the 75th percentile is in the lower 90s. The deterministic (which is not the mean) is below the 10th percentile in many cases. This is likely due to bias correction in the springtime here which is a big challenge in forecasting due to onshore flow, low clouds and fog.

The warm sector does get moderately unstable to the north and west of NYC Wednesday afternoon, but vertical profiles are drying and there is a strengthening mid level cap with little if any lift to get above the LFC. Should get a better handle on this in the next 24h as CAMs get into the period of interest.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid levels show nearly zonal flow Wednesday night with a trough moving in Thursday into Friday. Local region gets brief mid level ridging Saturday before another trough approaches for Sunday into early next week.

Weakening wave of low pressure moves farther east of the region Wednesday night into Thursday with a trailing cold front that will weaken and linger to the south of the area. Models depict a lull in the rain, with mainly dry conditions anticipated Wednesday night into early Thursday.

This front will eventually strengthen and move northward back towards the area Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west.
The front will return north as a warm front but stay south of Long Island. Vertical forcing with low level omega increases Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

The center of the low reaches near the forecast area Thursday evening and eventually moves east of the area Friday. There are some model differences in terms of the number of waves of low pressure and their movement.

There is forecast an increasing chance for rainfall Thursday into Thursday night. Rain expected mid afternoon Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Some elevated instability is shown to be a possibility so there could be a few thunderstorms. Chances for rain decrease for late Thursday night into Friday but become higher across interior locations Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.

The model exhibit more coherence in pressure Friday night into Saturday as GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all depict low pressure getting farther east of the region with weak high pressure moving into the local area for the weekend. Chances for rain lower Friday night.

Would expect mainly dry conditions for the first half of the weekend with brief return of high pressure. However the high pressure will be of weak magnitude and very transient, allowing for longwave trough to approach Sunday into Sunday night before flattening out going into early next week.

at the surface, more low pressure areas approach Sunday through potentially Monday as well. However, model differences become more apparent in this timeframe as well. Chances for rain increase Sunday and Monday, mainly in the afternoon into early evening hours.

Temperatures overall are forecast to not deviate too significantly from seasonal normal values.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front approaching from the west will pass through tonight.
Weak high pressure will briefly return on Tuesday.

Some MVFR cigs are still hanging around mainly from KEWR/KTEB north and west. Still think these will lift to VFR at some point late this afternoon.

IFR/LIFR cond appear likely to return tonight to KISP/KGON, but the situation is highly uncertain for the NYC metro terminals. Shallow moisture ahead of the approaching front could lead to redevelopment of low clouds/fog with MVFR or IFR conditions.
Confidence high enough to mention IFR cond for KJFK for a few hours (04Z-07Z) just ahead of the cold front, but these conditions could very well expand to the other metros as well as KHPN, and would be handled via later amendments if necessary.

After cold fropa, conds should improve to VFR from the NYC metros north/west, with N-NE flow less than 10 kt after daybreak Tue. Improvement to VFR will take longer farther east as winds after fropa will remain light until close to daybreak. Coastal sea breezes possible by late morning/early afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence fcst for tonight. IFR cond could begin sooner at KJFK this evening and also expand to the other terminals.
Unscheduled AMD likely.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: VFR.

Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late with MVFR cond possible.

Wednesday: MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. Cond improving to VFR mid to late afternoon. Chance of showers. Tstms possible mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, especially in the afternoon and at night.

Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.

Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Areas of fog are likely to redevelop this evening, especially on the ocean waters. There is the potential for a period of dense fog. A cold front moves through during the early morning hours with improving conditions. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday.

SCA conditions possible within the Thursday through Friday night timeframe. Otherwise, mainly below SCA forecast in the marine long term Wednesday night through Saturday night.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night.

A statement remains in effect for localized minor flooding with tonight's high tide cycle for Southern Fairfield County and the south shore back bays of Nassau County.

A more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate advisories for these two locations plus Southern Queens will more likely occur with the nighttime cycles from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Statements for these 3 high tide cycles may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound, SW Suffolk County, as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Little Ferry
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Mon -- 02:55 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:02 AM EDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:04 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     7.08 feet High Tide
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Little Ferry, New Jersey, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Mon -- 01:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:05 AM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:12 PM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:27 PM EDT     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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