Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Passaic, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:36PM Sunday November 19, 2017 1:27 AM EST (06:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:35AMMoonset 6:46PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 110 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 110 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. As developing low pressure passes to the north, its associated warm front will lift through the area, followed by a strong cold around daybreak. High pressure will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will build late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Passaic, NJ
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location: 40.85, -74.12     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190220
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
920 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
As developing low pressure approaches from the west, its
associated warm front will lift to the north this evening, and
then an associated strong cold front will move across Sunday
morning as the strong low passes to the north. High pressure
will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold
front on Wednesday. High pressure will build late week. Low
pressure will then move across on Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Light overrunning rain has continued to spread across the region
this evening as the warm front remains mostly just south of long
island. S winds have weakened quite a bit from late afternoon
with the strongest winds across southeast connecticut and
eastern long island. Some question as to how strong the winds
will get late tonight once the warm front moves through. Have
trended winds down a bit from previous forecast, with the
strongest gusts occurring just before day break as boundary
layer temps rise and mixing improves.

Models continue to indicate h9 winds in the 50-60 kt range,
with a well-mixed boundary layer and also bands of moderate to
locally heavy showers capable of transporting most of this
momentum to the surface. High wind warnings were issued for
suffolk and coastal SE ct as a result, and wind advisories
expanded westward to include all coastal sections including nyc.

Strongest winds should occur overnight and especially
near across the forks of long island, though NAM timing is a
little sooner and its LLJ a little stronger than that of the
global models (up to 70 kt). Delayed the onset of these winds
a bit more to account for lighter winds this evening.

Instability with bands of showers overnight will be limited to
the low to mid levels, with an h6 inversion limiting
deeper greater instability that would have otherwise led
to thunder.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Cold front will be moving across in two shots, the first marking
arrival of a dry slot and departure of the s-sw low level jet,
the second marking the arrival of strong w-nw winds after
passage of a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough along.

There could be a brief lull in winds between these two features,
but then w-nw winds likely to gust just over 45 mph with
passage of the second trough (with NAM indicating narrow band of
showers with the front), and then during the late morning and
afternoon via a tight pressure gradient and h8 winds up to 40-45
kt. Stronger winds should hang on a few hrs longer into the
daytime than model forecasts indicate, and NAM also indicates
stronger h8 winds arriving in the late afternoon after another
mid level shortwave passage; think winds will however start to
gradually diminish by that point, so while gusty NW winds will
continue into Sunday night, have not extended the advisory into
Sunday night.

After morning highs in the 50s, temps should gradually fall in
the afternoon, back into the 40s by late afternoon, then into
the 20s and 30s tonight. A few lake effect snow showers may
make it into the area late Sunday night especially just NW of
nyc.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Aloft, models agree early in the period as initial shortwave passes
east northeast. Downstream shortwave will then make fast eastward
progress. Here is where some differences arise. Northern stream
potent shortwave tracks across the great lakes region as it lifts
northeast, with most of the energy and associated dynamics lifting
well to our north Wednesday. Southern stream trough lags a bit as it
moves across the gulf states. By late Wednesday into Thursday,
operational GFS seems to be a deep strong outlier with regard to
closed low around the gulf states as the trough makes eastward
progress.

This upper trough weakens over the western atlantic Thursday, with
next shortwave in the northern stream moving eastward toward the
northeast by next weekend.

At the sfc, high pressure passes to the south Monday and Tuesday.

Gusty NW flow will back around the SW as the high tracks east.

Thereafter, a cold front passes Wednesday. This front is associated
with northern stream shortwave. This looks like the best chance for
measurable precipitation, late Tuesday night into Wednesday, chance
pops.

Waves of low pressure likely develop along the front well to our
south in the Wednesday night Thursday time frame. Again, GFS appears
to be an outlier with wave of low pressure developing and passing
close enough for measurable precip Thursday. Otherwise, model
consensus suggest any precip remains to our southeast as ridge
builds to the NW and waves remain far enough to the southeast.

Will maintain a dry forecast as a result, leaning toward consensus.

However, this will need to be watched.

Dry through Friday before the next chance for precip arrives with
the shortwave, clipper low Saturday.

As for temperatures Monday-Saturday, followed a model MOS blend.

Below normal temperatures Monday will warm to slightly above normal
Tuesday as WAA occurs behind the high. Behind a cold front
Wednesday, normal temps likely fall to below normal Thursday and
Friday before rebounding yet again in WAA ahead of the clipper low
Saturday.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
A warm front moves north of the terminals tonight. A cold front
follows early Sunday morning with high pressure building behind
it through Sunday evening.

S flow has temporarily weakened, but the expectation is for the
winds to increase overnight as the warm front moves north.

Gusts will return to all terminals, initially 20-30 kt after
06z, increasing to 30-40 kt towards day break. Some eastern
terminals may see peak gusts 45-50 kt. Llws is also forecast
across eastern long island and southeast connecticut as the cold
front moves through. S-sw winds shift to the w-wnw Sunday
morning with gusts frequently 35-40 kt during the day. The gusts
will begin to weaken late in the afternoon and early in the
evening.

MainlyVFR conditions to start with conditions gradually
becoming MVFR with steadier showers moving in overnight. There
may also be some brief localized ifr. Conditions will improve to
vfr Sunday morning behind the cold front.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Monday Vfr. W-nw winds g20-30kt. Gusts diminish gradually at
night.

Tuesday MainlyVFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night in
showers. SW winds g15-20kt.

Wednesday MVFR possible with showers during the day.VFR at
night. W-nw winds g15-20kt.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
S-sw winds will increase to gale force later this evening, then
a strong low level jet with only a weak inversion at best
should allow storm force gusts to occur on the eastern
ocean sound bays, where a storm warning has been issued. Farther
west, winds should still gust to 35-45 kt, and a gale warning
remains in effect.

After a cold frontal passage Sunday morning, w-nw winds should
gust to 40-45 kt through the day, and fall below gale force on
the non-ocean waters after midnight.

Gusty NW W flow Monday will back around the SW Monday night and
Tuesday as high pressure passes to our south, then east. These
sw winds eventually shift around the N NW behind a cold front
Wednesday. Northerly winds persist Wednesday night and Thursday.

As for sea forecasts, rough conditions persist in the Monday and
Tuesday time frame due to strong winds tight pressure gradient.

Nearshore wave prediction system looked quite reasonable and was
followed. For Wednesday and Thursday, had to knock down sea
forecasts from wave watch iii as GFS appears to be an outlier with
regard to a wave of low pressure that approaches the waters from the
south southeast.

Hydrology
Rain with a warm frontal passage tonight, and then with bands of
moderate to locally heavy showers with a strong cold frontal
passage late tonight into Sunday morning, should cause no more
than local nuisance impacts. Total rainfall is expected to
range between 1 2 to 1 inch, highest NW of nyc.

Tides coastal flooding
Storm surge guidance for Sunday morning high tide may to be on
the low side given the strength of southerly winds expected tonight
into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. But typically, S sw
winds are not conducive to building surge.

There is a low probability of a surge of 1-2 ft Sunday morning.

If these surge levels develop, minor coastal impacts in a
strong SW W flow would be felt mainly across eastern portions of
the great south bay into moriches bay. Elsewhere any impacts
would be brief and localized. Statement issued to address this
potential.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... High wind warning until noon est Sunday for ctz011-012.

Wind advisory from 7 am to 6 pm est Sunday for ctz005-006.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for ctz007>010.

Ny... High wind warning until noon est Sunday for nyz078>081.

Wind advisory from 7 am to 6 pm est Sunday for nyz067>070.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for nyz071>075-176>179.

Nj... Wind advisory from 7 am to 6 pm est Sunday for njz002-004-
103>108.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for njz006.

Marine... Storm warning until noon est Sunday for anz330-340-345-350-353.

Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz335-338-355.

Synopsis... Goodman pw
near term... Goodman ds
short term... Goodman
long term... Pw
aviation... Ds
marine... Goodman pw
hydrology... Goodman pw
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 21 mi42 min S 14 G 19 57°F 52°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 30 mi42 min SSW 14 G 19 58°F 1 ft53°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 40 mi37 min SSW 27 G 33 60°F 59°F9 ft994.1 hPa (-4.4)55°F

Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ4 mi36 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds50°F46°F89%994 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY9 mi36 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds57°F50°F78%994.2 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ9 mi34 minN 02.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F42°F100%994.8 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ10 mi36 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F50°F81%994.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY14 mi36 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F50°F78%994.2 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ16 mi32 minN 01.25 miLight Rain41°F41°F100%993.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi36 minS 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy55°F53°F93%995.3 hPa

Wind History from TEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmS8S9S8S6S6CalmCalmS5S7S7S4S7SW4Calm
1 day agoNW9NW10
G18
NW13
G22
NW16
G28
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G25
NW12
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NW11NW13NW126CalmNW3NW5CalmCalm
2 days agoSE7S5S7S5S6SW8SW5SW6SW8SW7--W13W13
G19
W8NW13
G21
W6
G16
W22
G29
W22
G29
W11
G16
W18
G26
NW9W9W7
G16
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for East Rutherford, Passaic River, New Jersey
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East Rutherford
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Sun -- 03:30 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM EST     6.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:05 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:46 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:01 PM EST     5.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.71.60.80.20.31.83.95.66.66.86.25.13.72.41.30.3-0.10.62.44.15.25.65.44.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:37 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:59 AM EST     1.94 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:25 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:30 AM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:20 PM EST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:39 PM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-0.9-0.50.41.51.91.71.10.4-0.5-1.2-1.7-1.7-1.4-1-0.21.11.91.81.20.6-0.2-0.8-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.