Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Water Mill, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:32PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:33 AM EST (10:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 1:28AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ350 Moriches Inlet Ny To Montauk Point Ny Out 20 Nm- 333 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 333 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the waters through the weekend. Weak low pressure passes through late Sunday through Monday. A slow moving cold front then moves across the waters on Tuesday followed by high pressure.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Water Mill, NY
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location: 40.86, -72.31     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170921
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
421 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds into the area into Sunday. A frontal
boundary will slowly move across the area late Sunday into
Tuesday morning with weak areas of low pressure tracking along
it. High pressure then builds in through the thanksgiving
holiday.

Near term through tonight
Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail through tonight. At the sfc,
high pressure builds towards the area today, then over new
england tonight. Cloud forecast this morning is the biggest
challenge. Bkn-ovc stratocu from western ct LI and areas west
early this morning. Guidance not really handling this well and
may not be holding on to it long enough before it dissipates
after sunrise. Once the clouds do give way, should see a mostly
sunny partly cloudy day under a westerly flow with highs in the
mid to upper 40s.

As the high builds over new england tonight winds will diminish
under mostly clear skies. A dry cold front is progged to move
across the area this evening. High clouds should begin to
increase during the overnight hours although still should have
good radiational cooling conditions. Lows are expected to range
from the mid to upper 20s across the interior and pine barrens
of long island to lower to mid 30s closer to the coast.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday
Guidance is in good agreement with an amplifying pattern
developing across the lower 48 early next week as a piece of
the polar vortex breaks off and drops into hudson bay. This will
result in a developing longwave trough east of the rockies with
a high amplitude ridge to the west.

Sfc high pres shifts offshore on Sun as the entrance region of
an upper jet streak with weak shortwave energy tracks from the
ohio valley into new england. WAA will also ensure later Sun and
more so Sun night. This is expected to lead to the expansion of
precipitation north and west of nyc late Sun sun eve with a weak
sfc low passing through Mon morning. A frontal boundary will
then approach from the NW and slowly track across the area mon
into Tue bringing the potential for additional pcpn. Soundings
are initially indicating pcpn to begin as snow well inland sun
night, transitioning to rain by Mon morning with plain rain
throughout the entire event closer to the coast. There is some
uncertainty with the thermal profiles inland Mon night into
tue, the GFS is significantly colder than the nam, so this will
need to be monitored and adjusted as needed. Have leaned more on
the colder for now.

Temperatures are expected to range between 5 and 10 degrees
below normal into the middle of next week.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
The 500 mb trough axis moves through Tue eve. Have kept the
forecast dry, but it is not out of the question for a snow or
rain shower to occur as it passes.

High pressure then builds for midweek and will continue through
the thanksgiving holiday.

Temperatures through the long term will remain below average
with the coldest day being on Wednesday. Temperatures then
moderate towards the end of the week, but still remaining below
normal.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure slowly builds in from the nw.

MainlyVFR through the TAF period. There are some early morning
ovc bkn clouds between 3-4kft which may produce an hour or two of
MVFR cigs.

West winds gusting around 20 kt mainly at the city terminals.

Lighter winds and no gusts for the other terminals. Gusts
return to most terminals by noon Saturday, but mostly in the
range of 15-20 kt.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday
Sat night-Sunday Vfr.

Sunday night-Monday MVFR or lower possible in possible rain
or wintry mix. NW winds g15-20kt Monday.

Tuesday Vfr.

Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
Gusty westerly winds remain on the forecast waters today with weak
cold advection. Winds gusts gradually diminish below 25 kt this
morning as the gradient relaxes a bit. Seas will take much of the
day to fall below 5 ft, especially across the far eastern ocean
waters.

Have gone ahead and cancelled the SCA for long island sound and the
peconic and gardiners bays, however there may still be some
occasional gusts to 25 kt early this morning. Small crafts continue
on the ocean with the western ocean ending at 18z today, and the two
eastern ocean zones at 23z.

Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels Saturday night
through Friday as only weak waves are expected to pass through and
high pressure remains in control most of the time.

Hydrology
Light QPF amounts, 1 10" to 1 3", highest amounts north, are
expected Sun night into tue. No hydrologic issues are expected
through Friday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz355.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz350-
353.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 18 mi43 min W 21 G 27 44°F 55°F7 ft1016.3 hPa (+2.4)37°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 23 mi33 min 45°F 50°F1015.7 hPa (+2.9)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 33 mi33 min W 18 G 21 41°F 1016.3 hPa (+2.9)32°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 37 mi33 min WSW 2.9 G 7 36°F 54°F1015.6 hPa (+2.8)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi33 min W 5.1 G 7 38°F 52°F1016.6 hPa (+2.6)
44069 43 mi33 min W 16 G 18 40°F 42°F34°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY17 mi40 minWSW 610.00 miFair33°F27°F78%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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1 day ago--NE5NE5NE7NE9NE10NE10NE9NE10
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2 days agoNW15
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NW14N8N8N9N8N9N6------------

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Inlet (ocean), Long Island, New York
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Shinnecock Inlet (ocean)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:29 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:00 AM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:14 PM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:31 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.42.52.421.51.20.90.70.81.21.72.22.52.72.62.21.61.10.70.40.40.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:29 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:07 AM EST     1.04 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM EST     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:25 PM EST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:00 PM EST     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8110.80.2-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.10.6110.90.4-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.2-0.8-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.