Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:29 PM   Moonset 3:12 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 336 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers this afternoon. Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ300 336 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weakening upper level trough will move across the area through tonight, otherwise surface high pressure will remain in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 180606 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 206 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure remains over the region into Saturday night.
A weakening trough of low pressure approaches from the west and dissipates by Saturday evening. Otherwise, high pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A northeast to east flow will bring low level moisture into region into morning. And with some weak low level convergence and lift light drizzle will be possible across eastern LI/SE CT.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough will be moving very slowly east and weaken tonight into Saturday. And by Saturday morning a few showers may move into the western portion of the region with some weak lift with the trough. The offshore low weakens Saturday afternoon with lift ending, so end the chances for drizzle by then.

With little airmass change overnight temperatures will be similar to Friday morning's lows. And with more clouds and the easterly flow high temperatures Saturday will be around 5 degrees below seasonal normals.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
The weakening surface trough to the west may move into the region, and into the surface ridge, and then dissipate Saturday night. Any lift and showers with this system will then be ending. Otherwise, weak high pressure remains in control.
Once again with little airmass change temperatures Saturday night will be in the lower to mid 50s across the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
*Key Points*

*Mainly dry with above temperatures Sunday through next week.

*A cold front approaches late in the week with the next chance at showers, possibly thunderstorms, Wednesday night through Thursday.

Relatively quiet weather is expected Sunday through the middle of the week. Ridging both aloft and the surface will begin building over the northeast on Sunday and should remain in control through Wednesday. The modeling continues to signal the break down of the ridge late Wednesday as an upper level trough heads east from the Rockies towards the Great Lakes. There is relatively good agreement for this shortwave to move across the region sometime late in the week. However, the guidance is not in agreement on its amplitude and timing, which impacts the strength of a cold front. This cold front should approach late in the week bringing an increase in chances for showers and possibly Thunderstorms. Will continue to use the NBM given the time range, which looked reasonable for PoPs Wednesday night into Thursday night. The consensus indicates the front should be moving through on Thursday, but this could speed up or slow down, especially with uncertainty with the aforementioned trough and weakening of the ridge.

Mainly used the NBM deterministic for temperatures, but blended in the 50th percentile for Monday through Thursday. There is a fair amount of temperature spread, and the NBM deterministic is lying closer to the 25th percentile. This is most prominent away from the immediate coast where temperatures typically are warmer during onshore flow days. The onshore flow should keep coastal locations in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but elsewhere should be able to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures could be even warmer (middle to upper 80s away from the coast), especially if the flow takes on a more westerly component ahead of the front Wednesday or Thursday.

AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak high pressure will be in place today through Sunday, with a weak warm front dissipating as it moves in from the west tonight.

MVFR cigs likely develop across the eastern terminals (KGON, KISP, and KBDR) for the morning push, while NYC/NJ terminals likely remain VFR. MVFR cigs will likely be stubborn for the eastern terminals through the day, with patchy MVFR cigs possible in the aft for NYC/NJ terminals. Increasing likelihood for MVFR cigs spreading west into NYC/NJ terminals tonight.
Isolated shower possible in aft/eve.

NE/E winds 10 kt or less today into tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Slight prob for MVFR cigs during AM push, and low prob for PM push. MVFR conds likely for Sun AM push. Isolated shra possible for eve push.

NE winds of 7 to 10 kt, likely becoming E/SE in the afternoon with hybrid sea breeze development, except NE for KLGA. MVFR conds likely for Sun AM push.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Tonight: MVFR. NE/E winds less than 10 kt.

Sunday...MVFR or lower in the AM, gradually improving to VFR.
Light E/NE winds.

Monday...MVFR AM, then VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet remain elevated, at 5 to 6 feet, with a east to southeast 8 second swell from weak low pressure meandering south of Nova Scotia. The low weakens further during Saturday. Seas have subsided across the central ocean zone, and have cancelled the advisory there. The SCA remains in effect for the eastern ocean zone until 10 am Saturday. Then Saturday afternoon and Saturday night winds and seas remain below advisory levels. On the non ocean waters winds and seas remain below advisory levels tonight through Saturday night.

A weak pressure gradient over the waters will lead to conditions below SCA levels Sunday through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350.

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Glen Cove, Hempstead Harbor, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Sat -- 02:32 AM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:57 AM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:57 PM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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