Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 11:22 AM   Moonset 1:42 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1159 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of rain. Wed night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds, becoming E 2 ft at 3 seconds. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of rain. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. Chance of rain in the evening. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.Sat night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1159 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front will be well northeast of the waters with a stalled front well west of the waters through today. Low pressure develops along the front and another low approaches from the south tonight into Wednesday. The low to the south of the area gets close Wednesday night into Thursday before moving farther offshore Thursday night. Weak high pressure on Friday will be followed by a frontal system that impacts the waters through the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 141734 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 134 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will be well northeast of the region with a stalled front well west of the region through today. Low pressure develops along the front and another low approaches from the south tonight into Wednesday. The low to the south of the area gets close Wednesday night into Thursday before moving farther offshore Thursday night. Weak high pressure on Friday will be followed by a frontal system that impacts the area through the weekend. Brief high pressure may once again move in by early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid level ridging becomes more of a troughing pattern today as an embedded shortwave moves across the region today.

Clouds continue to increase in a southerly flow.

CAMs continue to show some shower and possible thunderstorm activity moving in to mainly western parts of the region during the middle and later part of this afternoon into early this evening. Forecast CAPE values today expected to be just a few hundred J/kg across interior locations. So any thunder at this point should be somewhat isolated.

Expecting much of the day to be mainly dry for most locations.
The chances for showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast for the latter half of this afternoon to the north and west of NYC.

Forecast high temperatures a blend of MOS and blends of guidance, lower and middle 70s for highs away from the coast.
Temperatures more in the mid 60s to near 70 range along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure approaching brings more showers tonight and eventually a transition to more stratiform rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure moves south of the region. Low levels look to remain stable enough to not include any mention of thunderstorms.

The SREF indicates some low to mid level Q vector convergence so increased POPs for rain showers tonight. The mid level trough will continue to approach from the west with an additional wave of low pressure forming south and west of the region. This more southern low will move south of Long Island Wednesday and get to close proximity to Long Island Wednesday night into Thursday.

Model changes in solution are quite drastic regarding the 00Z NAM versus the 12Z NAM where the 00Z solution depicts hardly any measurable rain through Thursday night. This has trended drier than previous runs.

It appears overall the low has shifted farther south compared to previous forecast, shifting a bulk of the rain farther south compared to the previous forecast as well. If the trend to the south with this low continues, look for a trend downward with respect to POPs and rainfall in subsequent forecasts.

The low appears to moves farther southeast of the region Thursday night, allowing for chances of rain to decrease.

During this timeframe, expecting less of a diurnal temperature range with a more maritime airmass developing. Highs Wednesday and Thursday mostly in the 60s while lows each night are mostly in the 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Brief upper level ridging remains in place over the area on Friday between an occluded low being reintroduced to the large-scale flow and an approaching trough. This will likely result in mainly dry conditions for Friday. By Friday night, the area will begin to feel impacts of the approaching low pressure system to the west. Onshore S/SE flow will allow for the increase of moisture and result in the beginning of showery activity into Saturday.

The low pressure approaching from the west will become cut-off from the flow over the East Coast. Global models differ greatly in the positioning of the cut-off low and resulting unsettled conditions.
the CMC and GFS have the low spinning over the area through the beginning of next week with unsettled weather and on and off showers through the period. The ECMWF suppresses the low to the south with high pressure from the northeast nosing in, resulting in mainly dry conditions. The extended forecast remains low confidence but the variability in the handling of the surface low pressure will result in unsettled weather through at least the weekend, so a chance of showers exists through the entire long term period.

Temperatures will be at or slightly below average, despite generally cloudy and showery conditions. Highs each day will be in the middle 60s to the middle 70s. Lows will generally be in the middle to upper 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure slowly approaches from the southwest into the afternoon and tonight.

VFR through this evening. There is a slight chance of showers confidence on timing and occurrence is low. There is also a low chance of thunder. Chances for showers increases slightly into the NYC metro terminals during the evening and tonight. Lower cigs move into the terminals (western terminals initially) tonight and into early Wednesday morning. Widely scattered light showers will be possible through tonight. Cigs continue to lower such that IFR condition will be possible by Wednesday morning, but confidence in timing is low.

Southerly flow 10-15kt this afternoon and evening. Any gusts that do occur will be occasional. Winds gradually become SE overnight into Wednesday morning. SE-E winds around 10 kt on Wednesday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through this afternoon. Low confidence in timing and occurrence of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and IFR cigs tomorrow.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely with SHRA. SHRA chances diminishes late at night. NE winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers. NE winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.

Saturday and Sunday: IFR/MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters through Wednesday. For Wednesday night, SCA conditions are more probable on the ocean while non-ocean waters will probably remain below SCA. For Thursday, most waters could receive SCA level gusts and by this point the ocean seas are forecast to build to SCA levels as well. The ocean zones are probable to have SCA level conditions Thursday night while non- ocean zones are probably below SCA.

Marginal wind gusts near 20-25 kt persist on the ocean Friday with wave heights 5-7 feet, so SCA condition appear likely. Wave heights drop below SCA threshold by Saturday night and remain below SCA conditions through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic problems are expected through the beginning of next week.

The rain in the short term is expected to be mostly light and prolonged. Total rainfall forecast is generally between 0.25 and 0.75 inch tonight through Thursday with the possibility that some locations may not receive rain.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Oyster Bay Harbor
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Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:48 AM EDT     7.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:21 AM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:27 PM EDT     6.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
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Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:31 AM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:36 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:58 PM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
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Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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