Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nissequogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:31PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 6:44 AM EST (11:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:25PMMoonset 4:35AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 415 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft this afternoon. Rain likely early this morning, then chance of rain late this morning. Slight chance of rain early this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Scattered flurries in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 415 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure tracks just to the south of long island this morning, then lifts into the gulf of maine this afternoon, followed by high pressure building in from the west tonight. A strong cold front approaches from the northwest Wednesday morning, then crosses the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure builds in through Friday, then slides offshore into Saturday. A storm system approaches from the southwest late Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nissequogue, NY
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location: 40.89, -73.21     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200906
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
406 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks just to the south of long island this
morning, then lifts into the gulf of maine this afternoon,
followed by high pressure building in from the west tonight. A
strong cold front approaches from the northwest Wednesday
morning, then crosses the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Canadian high pressure builds in through Friday, then slides
offshore into Saturday. A series of storm system will then
impact the tri-state from late Saturday through Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The latest radar trends on high resolution models show bulk of
precipitation this morning generally to the N of the tri-state
along leading edge of the axis of shearing vorticity 700-500
hpa vorticity maxima.

Should see a bit more widespread later this morning, especially
over S ct with passage of main 700-500 hpa northern stream
trough axis. Could see some precipitation linger into this
afternoon over SE ct, otherwise this afternoon should be mainly
dry. Could see some snow mixed in with the rain across far
northern interior zones this morning. No significant
accumulation is expected, with any accumulation limited to less
than an inch over mainly grassy surfaces.

Highs today should be around 5 degrees below normal - mainly in
the 40s - with some upper 30s possible in higher elevations to
the N and NW of nyc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
The flow aloft should be mainly zonal tonight and with dry low-
mid levels and no shortwaves progged in the flow - it will be
dry, with minimal cloud cover. Winds will be gusty, especially
around coastal sections, so this will help limit the
effectiveness of radiational cooling. Lows should be around 5-10
degrees below normal.

A northern stream trough sinks into the area Wednesday.

Increasing low-mid level moisture in the afternoon will allow
for an increase in cloud cover as the trough builds in. Across
mainly interior portions of the lower hudson valley and SW ct
there could be some mainly isolated afternoon rain snow showers
as the surface cold front reflection of this trough moves
through. Note - there is some sign that there could be negative
vorticity advection at 500 hpa Wednesday afternoon. If this
occurs, then the probability of showers is much less than
currently forecast.

Highs on Wednesday should be around 10-15 degrees below normal.

It will be breezy Wednesday afternoon, with 20-30 mph wind
gusts. This will produce wind chills in the lower-mid 20s by
late afternoon.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
An arctic cold front moves across the tri-state Wednesday evening
with perhaps just enough moisture for scattered flurries. The
airmass to follow Wednesday night through Thursday will be record
cold for most of the climate sites with readings 20 to 25 degrees
below normal. Breezy conditions are expected for thanksgiving day
with sunny conditions but with wind chills in the teens for much of
the day. Winds diminish Thursday night and will be light on Friday
as a high pressure center shifts through the area. Continued mostly
sunny for Friday, but highs will still be in the order of 15-20
degrees below normal.

Global models still disagree regarding how much longwave troughing
occurs to our west with implications on the track and strength of
low pressure that could bring rainfall during the weekend. Best
chances for rain would appear to be Saturday night, but will leave
in chances for Saturday afternoon and Sunday to account for
uncertainty. Temperatures will rebound to near normal over the
weekend.

There's better agreement with the following system as a closed upper
low moves from the ohio river valley to the eastern great lakes
region on Monday. A primary surface low takes a similar track, and a
secondary low passes over or nearby us Monday night. With this being
7 days away, will go with a 50% chance of rain to cover all of
Monday and Monday night.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
Frontal boundary just south of long island will remain nearly
stationary this morning as a wave of low pressure tracks along
it. Light rain showers are expected to accompany the lows
passage ending from W to E between 14z and 17z. A gusty NW flow
will then develop this aftn as the low deepens as it departs and
high pressure builds from the w.

Generally MVFR is prevailing across the terminals, but is
expected to become predominantly ifr by 12z. May be holding on
to these lower CIGS a few hours too long especially east of nyc
terminals, but gradual improvement is expected aft 15z (w-e)
withVFR returning 18-22z.

Light northerly winds this morning will back to the NW as the
low passes to the S with gusts in the upper teens to lower 20s
aft 17z. Gusts subside aft sunset.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 15 mi45 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 45°F 44°F43°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 20 mi45 min N 5.1 G 7 40°F 51°F1011.2 hPa (-0.9)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 20 mi60 min NNE 12 G 16 45°F 2 ft41°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 27 mi75 min NNE 12 G 14 49°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi45 min E 7 G 11 45°F 50°F1011.8 hPa (-0.6)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi45 min NNE 5.1 G 8 40°F 53°F1011.6 hPa (-1.2)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi60 min E 14 G 18 46°F 52°F2 ft
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi35 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 50°F 51°F1010.5 hPa46°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi55 min SW 9.7 G 12 54°F 55°F3 ft1010.4 hPa (-1.2)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi45 min 46°F 51°F1011.1 hPa (-0.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 48 mi45 min NNW 7 G 8 44°F 1011.6 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi1.8 hrsENE 310.00 miOvercast45°F43°F93%1010.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi52 minNNE 48.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1010.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY19 mi1.8 hrsN 08.00 miOvercast46°F42°F86%1011.1 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT20 mi53 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast42°F37°F82%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3SW5SW6SW10SW10W9SW9SW9N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4NE4E5NE5E4NE3NE3
1 day agoNW3CalmN4N5CalmS6S4S5S4SE4SE3CalmE4E4CalmCalmNE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmN3Calm
2 days agoSW6SW6W10NW11NW9W14
G18
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NW11W9W8W8W5W6W4W7W5W7NW11NW8NW6NW5NW4W3

Tide / Current Tables for Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Nissequogue River entrance
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Tue -- 02:19 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:28 AM EST     7.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:51 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:53 PM EST     7.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.20.50.71.83.55.26.77.67.66.653.31.70.50.10.82.245.66.87.26.65.2

Tide / Current Tables for Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York
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Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:27 AM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM EST     7.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:59 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM EST     6.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.30.50.61.63.14.86.37.27.36.44.93.31.70.60.10.61.93.65.26.46.86.35.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.