Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester Hill, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:45PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:00 AM EST (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:53AMMoonset 10:40PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester Hill , PA
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location: 40.89, -78.23     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 130643
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
143 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
Light snow is forecast to brush most of central pa late tonight
and Thursday morning as a weather system crosses the region.

Amounts will be light with a coating expected in most valley
locations and an inch or two over the ridges over the north
central mountains. Rain returns later Friday and continues most
of Saturday with a chance of showers continuing into Sunday.

Cooler and drier conditions are expected by Monday of next
week.

Near term until 8 am this morning
Pretty dry air at the sfc to start out tonight is going to slow
the beginning of accums by just a hair and make take accums down
as much as half an inch from going numbers. But, will only nudge
the numbers down that much over the SRN tier S of the pa
turnpike. So, some flurries may be all that the towns along the
mason-dixon line see. The elevations like south mountain could
still see a coating, though. Just small tweaks here and there.

All else is as fcst.

Prev...

compact upper low over lower mi continues to move steadily
eastward. So far, the snow has remained aloft, but it is
moistening things up. A bit stronger burst of warm advection
coincident with a 35kt lljet will start to produce a band of
light snow over the WRN mtns very shortly. This lift will get
better for the middle of the night over the north-central mtns.

Qpf and sf might be enhanced along the ridge tops, ESP those
with a se-facing slope. All is very well on track. Have tried to
get finer with the timing, but have tried to not change the
sf numbers more than a tenth up or down anywhere.

We do seem to lose the higher colder seeder clouds later tonight
in the west and then in the morning over the rest of the area.

This could lead to some patchy fzdz. But, the fcst soundings
when the good lift moves east will be dancing on the edge of dz
vs. Snow plates needles.

Prev...

narrow shortwave ridge traversing pa this afternoon. Fair and
cool conditions prevail, with mid and high clouds increasing
aloft.

Fair conditions will continue through mid evening, a quick-
moving low is forecast to track eastward from the great lakes
across pa tonight into Thursday. Model consensus continues to
support a broad area of light snow spreading west to east
across the alleghenies into the susquehanna valley between
02-12z Thursday.

No significant changes to the going forecast tonight, with
timing and amounts right on track. The far south will be
moisture challenged and pops don't ever get much above around 40
for the event.

Short term 8 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
Forecast on track Thursday with light snow accumulations of 0.5
to ~2 inches are most likely along and to the north of the i-80
corridor with the highest amounts on the ridges. A coating to
0.5 inch is forecast between i-80 and the pa turnpike with
little to no accumulation over the far southern tier west of
i-70 and south of us-30 to the md line. The timing of the snow
will impact the Thursday morning commute with some minor travel
disruptions and slow downs expected. Very light snow may linger
into Thursday afternoon before transitioning to patchy
drizzle freezing drizzle Thursday night.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
A brief building bridge will bring warm air advection for the
end of the week. This will preclude a storm system closed low
that will move from the southeast u.S, eastward. This will
spread milder air and rain into central pa Friday- Saturday.

Models are slowly converging on a consensus and the GFS is
trending toward the ec. The GEFS ensembles diverge and hence a
changing trend. The key remains due to the system being cut- off
from the northern branch of the jet stream and on- and- off
again phasing issues. Despite the variability, there is still a
pretty good signal for rain and moderate QPF Friday night into
Saturday. However, multi- model blends are trending lower which
suggests a declining risk of heavy rain localized flooding. Max
24-hr total rainfall is between 0.50 and 1.00 inches across the
southeast 2 3 of the CWA ending 12z Saturday. The details of
Saturday's forecast are very uncertain with the best chance of
rain over south-central pa.

A second band of rain should swing with the actual low Sunday
into Monday. This is when the GFS continues to move ahead of the
ec solution. So the GFS and ec remain out of sync with the ec
much slower to eject the closed low. Meanwhile, the GFS is more
bullish in digging a shortwave through the northern mid-atlantic
early next week. Adjusted with the blends and continued to cool
temperatures slightly.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
LowVFR to MVFR conditions expected today in periods of light
snow. Expect sub-vfr ceilings to become more widespread this
evening into tonight due to moist southeast low level flow.

Light snow should end as patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle
tonight into Friday morning.

Outlook
Fri... MVFRVFR early trending MVFR ifr with rain spreading
southwest to northeast Friday night.

Sat-sun... Ocnl rain and MVFR cigs.

Mon... MVFR CIGS snow showers psbl north west airspace.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Devoir
near term... Dangelo devoir
short term... Devoir
long term... Ceru steinbugl
aviation... Steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clearfield, Clearfield-Lawrence Airport, PA15 mi66 minNE 610.00 miOvercast32°F24°F73%1019.5 hPa
State College - University Park Airport, PA21 mi63 minN 010.00 miOvercast32°F24°F74%1019.3 hPa

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Last 24hrW5W5W4SW4SW5CalmCalm3SW5SW7Calm3SE5CalmE4E3E7NE6NE6NE4N4NE5N4NE6
1 day agoSW4SW7SW5SW5SW7SW8SW10SW8SW7SW8SW7SW8W11
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2 days agoS3CalmN4NE3CalmSW3SW4SW3S3SW3CalmNE7N6N5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SW3SW5SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.