Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coram, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:31PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:22 AM EST (07:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:24PMMoonset 4:34AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 834 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely late.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 834 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A wave of low pressure approaches the waters from the southwest through late tonight, then moves through the waters through Tuesday afternoon. The low moves northeast of the waters Tuesday night as high pressure builds to the west. An arctic front will then pass through Wednesday evening. High pressure then builds in through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coram, NY
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location: 40.9, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200554
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1254 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure approaches from the southwest through late tonight,
then moves through the region through Tuesday afternoon. High
pressure builds to the west late Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night. An arctic front then sweeps across the tri-
state area Wednesday evening. Cold canadian high pressure then
builds in through the end of the week with the potential for wet
weather over the weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
No major updates to the forecast this evening. Patchy fog
remains possible in coastal locales with less cloud cover.

Expect that as rain moves through these visibilities should
improve overnight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track,
with hi- resolution consensus lending confidence in snow
amounts generally less than an inch for portions of the lower
hudson valley, and no more than 2 inches which is in line with
current probabilistic snowfall forecasts. Previous discussion
follows.

An upper longwave trough remains across the eastern us, with
shortwaves rotating through. One wave passed through this
morning with another wave approaching from the ohio valley. This
will be accompanied by a weak surface wave of low pressure. A
weak warm front moved into the region ahead of this wave and the
low level thermal profiles will support all liquid at the onset
this evening. Late tonight forcing increases along the frontal
boundary. This will increase the chances of precipitation. An
with marginal thermal conditions inland, especially at the
higher elevations, there will be a mix of rain and snow, going
over to all snow toward Tuesday morning as the lower levels
cool. The best forcing will be quickly moving to the east late
tonight into Tuesday morning and the precipitation will be
ending Tuesday morning across the western zones and as the low
begins to deepen. Leaned toward the cooler NAM even through
guidance fairly similar. So,at this time may see up to an inch
of snow across the higher inland elevations before the
precipitation ends.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Low level frontal forcing will be moving through the eastern
zones by late in the morning as the low, which will likely be
across southeastern connecticut and eastern long island, begins
to deepen. So will be ending precipitation through the afternoon
as the low deepens and moves along the southern new england
coast. Precipitation will be lowering and ending as the colder
air wraps in behind the low Tuesday afternoon, so not expecting
a transition to snow across the eastern zones.

The upper eastern trough will remain as higher pressure begins
to build to the west Tuesday night, so will be a little slower
for clouds to clear than guidance is indicating.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
A highly amplified, yet progressive upper air pattern will
continue through the period. Short-term climate signals all
pointing toward an unseasonably cold and active period with the
mean upper trough over eastern north america.

An anomalous upper trough descends southward across eastern
canada and the northeast at the onset of the period, sending an
arctic cold front across the tri-state area during the late
afternoon early evening hours Wednesday. The airmass to follow
Wednesday night through Thursday will be record cold for most of
the climate sites with readings 20 to 25 degrees below normal.

Thereafter, temperatures will rebound to near normal over the
weekend.

Global models over the weekend diverge on the amount of phasing
of the two branches of the polar jet east of the mississippi
river valley as pacific energy races across the lower 48. The
ecmwf is the closest to the phasing of the two streams as a
negatively tilted upper trough approaches Saturday into Saturday
night. While with all scenarios the airmass is warming enough
with a deep-layered e-se flow, rainfall amounts are
significantly varied based on the amount of forcing. This is
followed by a similar system early next week in which there is
better agreement of a closed upper low moving across the ohio
valley. Regardless, there are enough complexities at this point
in time to not be too specific with forecast impacts.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
MVFR or lower will continue to expand thru 8z as a frontal boundary
pushes through the region. Ifr lifr are possible. Light rain will
move across the terminals early this morning, possibly mixed with
some -sn at kswf. Conditions likely remain ifr or lower for tomorrow
morning's push coastal tafs. Gradual improvement thru the day, but
vfr is not expected til aft 18z.VFR tonight.

Winds light and vrb tngt. Any prevailing direction would tend to the
ne. Winds become NW behind the front on tue, with gusts to around 20
kt in the aftn and eve.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Saturday
Late tonight Vfr.

Wednesday Low chance MVFR or lower in shsn in the aftn eve. W-nw
winds g20-30kt.

Wednesday night-Thursday Vfr. NW winds g25-30kt.

Friday Vfr.

Saturday Vfr early... Followed by possible MVFR in the afternoon.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory levels
tonight into Tuesday morning as a wave of low pressure passes
through the waters. As the low begins to move into the eastern
forecast waters, and deepen Tuesday afternoon, northwest winds
and gusts will increase. Small craft gusts will become likely
Tuesday afternoon across the eastern sound and eastern bays, new
york harbor and the ocean waters. These conditions will
continue through Tuesday evening on the non ocean waters, and on
the ocean waters into Wednesday morning. A SCA have been posted
beginning at 11 am est Tuesday.

Potential is there for a pre- and post-frontal gale Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday followed by diminishing winds Thursday
night into Friday with high pressure building across the waters.

E-se winds begin to ramp up late Saturday ahead of a frontal
system.

Hydrology
A tenth of an inch to one-quarter of an inch of liquid
equivalent precipitation is likely tonight through Tuesday with
the highest amounts across the lower hudson valley eastward
through interior southern connecticut. Some of the precipitation
will fall as light snow late tonight into early Tuesday morning
across the lower hudson valley. No hydrologic impacts are
expected.

Multiple frontal systems will impact the area over the weekend
and into early next week, but confidence in forecasting
hydrologic impacts is low at this time.

Climate
Record low temperatures for Thu nov 22:
central park... ..13 (1880)
laguardia... ... ..21 (1987)
kennedy... ... ... .20 (1987)
newark... ... ... ..19 (1987)
bridgeport... ... .18 (1987)
islip... ... ... ... 20 (1987)
record high minimum temperatures for Thu nov 22:
central park... ..23 (1880)
laguardia... ... ..31 (1972)
kennedy... ... ... .34 (2008)*
newark... ... ... ..33 (1949)
bridgeport... ... .30 (1972)
islip... ... ... ... 31 (2008)
record low temperatures for Fri nov 23:
central park... ..14 (1880)
laguardia... ... ..23 (1972)
kennedy... ... ... .25 (2008)*
newark... ... ... ..21 (1932)
bridgeport... ... .16 (1972)
islip... ... ... ... 13 (1989)
*also occurred in previous years

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable, parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 1 am est
Wednesday for anz330-338-340.

Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for anz330-340-350-353-355.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 1 pm est
Wednesday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Met dw
near term... Md met
short term... Met
long term... Dw
aviation... Jmc
marine... Met dw
hydrology... Met dw
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 15 mi52 min E 1.9 G 5.8 45°F 44°F43°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi40 min NE 6 G 8.9 42°F 51°F1012.7 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi37 min ENE 14 G 16 45°F 53°F1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi34 min NE 6 G 11 40°F 53°F1013.5 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 31 mi52 min ENE 12 G 18 45°F 1 ft40°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 39 mi37 min NE 12 G 16 49°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi40 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 45°F 50°F1013.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi32 min SW 12 G 14 55°F 55°F3 ft1012.2 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi86 minENE 410.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1012.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY9 mi26 minVar 38.00 miOvercast46°F41°F83%1012.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY20 mi29 minNE 410.00 miOvercast46°F41°F83%1013.3 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT21 mi30 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast43°F36°F76%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3CalmCalmSE3SW5SW6SW10SW10W9SW9SW9N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4NE4E5
1 day agoNW6NW5NW4W3NW3CalmN4N5CalmS6S4S5S4SE4SE3CalmE4E4CalmCalmNE3CalmSE3Calm
2 days agoW10W7W8SW5SW6SW6W10NW11NW9W14
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson
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Tue -- 02:36 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:49 AM EST     7.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:10 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:15 PM EST     6.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.81.40.50.41.22.64.25.76.87.16.45.13.620.6-00.31.42.94.55.96.66.45.3

Tide / Current Tables for Setauket Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Setauket Harbor
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Tue -- 02:34 AM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:35 AM EST     7.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:06 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:00 PM EST     6.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.40.60.51.434.76.27.27.36.553.41.90.70.10.51.83.55.16.36.86.45.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.