Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 2:39 PM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 549 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of rain after midnight. Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Rain likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed night - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 549 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure extending south along the new england coast and into our our area will remain nearly stationary into Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday and moves across the area Sunday night into Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Tuesday before returning as a warm front Wednesday. A series of frontal waves may impact the area to end the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 032152 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 552 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure along the New England coast and into our area will remain nearly stationary into Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday and moves across the area Sunday night into Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Tuesday before returning as a warm front Wednesday. A series of frontal waves may impact the area to end the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Forecast on track this evening.

A high amplitude upper ridge over the eastern third of the country will be slow to translate east through the first half this weekend. This will keep surface high pressure ridging down along the New England coast and into our area. Expect a light easterly flow to continue with varying amounts of cloud cover.
Satellite imagery shows a fair amount of high clouds moving through the upper ridge axis. This could impact temperatures somewhat depending on the opacity. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 40s, but around 50 for the NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Not much change during this time as the forecast area will remain under an easterly flow at 10 mph or less. Varying amounts of high clouds will filter through the upper ridge over the area on Saturday, which works to the east Saturday night. Clouds will lower and thicken Saturday night with some fog possible toward daybreak Sunday. Warm advection rain on the backside of the ridge, ahead of an approaching warm front, continues to trend slower. Chances of rain Saturday night remain low and mainly after midnight. Temperatures during this time will at or just below normal.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
*Key Points*

*An approaching front will bring rain Sunday into Sunday night, which ends early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts average one quarter to one half inch.

*The front stalls to our south early next week with limited chances for showers through Tuesday.

*Unsettled conditions are likely Wednesday through next Friday, although not a wash out. Several frontal waves are possible, which may bring periods of showers, but timing is uncertain.

*Below normal temperatures Sunday should trend back above normal next week. Timing of the potential precip could impact temperatures late in the week.

A shortwave associated with a larger upper low over Central Canada will try to break down the highly amplified ridging over the east coast to start the long term. The guidance has continued to show a slower trend to this process with the associated frontal system not moving through the area until Sunday night or early Monday. Rain associated with the front should start in the morning west of the NYC metro and then slowly spread eastward through the afternoon.
This continues to look like mainly an overrunning rainfall with little to no elevated instability. Average amounts range from around one quarter to one half inch.

The shortwave axis will push offshore later Monday with the front stalled to our south and west. Another highly amplified ridge builds across the Great Lakes in response to a large upper low over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. There are conflicting signals in the guidance for whether or not energy will traverse underneath the ridge towards the area Monday night. This potential energy would interact with the stalled front to bring another chance of rain.
However, some of the global guidance weakens the energy with the height field becoming suppressed over New England in response to an upper low over the Maritimes. A weak high pressure should build towards New England which should keep any precip, if it were to develop, mainly near the coast closer to the stalled front. Have used the NBM for PoPs with just a low chance near the coast Monday night.

A piece of the ridge builds overhead on Tuesday, so this should end up being a mainly dry day. The next forecast challenge will be for Wednesday through the end of the week. The stationary front to our south and west should begin lifting back north as a warm front on Wednesday. The parent low will be associated with the upper low over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, but there may be a few waves along the warm front. One of these may be enough to initiate some convection Wednesday afternoon or evening. The upper low then slowly moves east towards the Great Lakes to end the week. Several frontal waves may move across or just south the area keeping conditions unsettled. Timing of these waves is highly uncertain given a late Day 5 through Day 7 forecast, so have capped PoPs off at high chance for now.

Sunday will be cool with rain and temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. Conditions should begin rising back above normal next week with temperatures in the 70s most afternoons away from the immediate coastline. Have followed the NBM deterministic, but it should be noted that there is a fair amount of spread in the guidance, especially later in the week due to the potential precip.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure remains along the New England coast and into our area through Saturday.

VFR to start. Cigs may fall once again into late tonight into Saturday morning with potential stratus development, though confidence is too low to prevail at this time. However, added a TEMPO group for this possibility from 08Z-12Z Saturday.

An E/SE flow with speeds around 10 kt or less will shift to the E tonight for the city terminals, and become light and variable for the outlying terminals. An occasional gust to around 20 kt is possible into the early evening hours. SE winds on Saturday with speeds at or below 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is uncertainty with the development of MVFR or lower clouds tonight. Best timing for this is between 08Z-12Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR stratus.
Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Wednesday...MVFR or lower with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to start the weekend with high pressure along the New England coast maintaining an easterly flow across the waters. Winds will generally be around 10 kt.

Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria Sunday the middle of next week with a weak pressure gradient in place. There may be an increase in winds closer to 20 kt and seas building to around 4 ft, but conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Nissequogue River entrance
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Fri -- 01:21 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:28 AM EDT     7.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
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Northport
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Fri -- 01:33 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EDT     7.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
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