Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prospect, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:41PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:58AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 407 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees and off erie 54 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201905231430;;317090 FZUS51 KCLE 230807 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 407 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ148-149-231430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prospect , PA
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location: 40.9, -80.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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Fxus61 kpbz 231437
afdpbz
area forecast discussion
national weather service pittsburgh pa
1037 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
The risk for showers and storms will continue during the late morning
with the passing a pre-frontal trough. Additional showers storms are
expected later this evening with a cold front passing.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Late morning: showers and storms will continue for the next few hours
as a pre-frontal trough passes through our region. The biggest threat
with these storms is damaging winds. Gusts up to 60-70mph have been
reported near the shores of lake erie over the last few hours. Hi-res
models display a region of high low level winds (50kts), at 850mb,
across northeastern ohio northwestern pennsylvania and help support
the reasoning of these nearby storm reports. Storms will gradually
fizzle out after lunch time as the upper-ridge, positioned direction
over our region, flattens.

As we move into the late afternoon early evening, the flattened
upper-level ridge is expected to tilt and northwest flow will dominate.

As cooling increase aloft, upper-level instability will too increase.

By 4 to 6pm a cold front will push over lake erie and move
southeast. Severe storms will once again fire up along the boundary.

Storms may produce damaging winds, hail, and or isolated tornadoes
this evening.

Earlier discussion:
two periods of showers and storms are expected today, one this
morning and a second this afternoon and evening with the cold front.

A pre-frontal trough will cross the area this morning. This energy
will induce upper level height falls as it moves through, which will
eventually assist in frontal passage late in the day. The convection
this morning will be encountering a relatively stable atmosphere, and
should remain below severe levels. Stronger convection is expected
this afternoon, along and ahead of a southeastward moving cold front.

Still seeing model differences on timing, placement, and overall
intensity of the convection. Atmosphere will quickly destabilize
behind the morning shortwave, and plenty of moisture will be
available as dewpoints rise into the mid to upper 60s. Winds aloft
will become north of westerly, allowing for a cool down at the upper
levels, increasing elevated atmospheric instability. However, the
mid-levels will remain warm, helping to keep the atmosphere capped
until the front arrives. Another limiting factor will be how much
cloud cover is left over from the morning rain. Residual cloud cover
will limit surface temperature rise and perhaps prevent achievement
of convective temps. Models are indicting a break behind the morning
rain, and what the atmosphere does, in terms of cloud cover and
increased buoyancy, during this break, will be critical to storm
development along the front. Forecast soundings are portraying a
strengthening wind field aloft increasing the threat for damaging
wind gusts, and the increase in shear will also create a scenario
where convective updrafts can become stronger and long lived. All of
these elements will need to be closely monitored throughout the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
The cold front will pick up speed and approach my southern border
late this evening. Activity will end from northwest to southeast
behind the boundary, and cloud cover will decrease in the same
manner.

Height rises and a weak surface high will keep Friday dry.

Shower and storm chances will ramp up again Saturday afternoon as
the next shortwave rides over top of the upper level ridge.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
The long term will be dominated by the strength and placement of the
eastern CONUS ridge. The area will lie on the northern periphery of
said ridge, meaning the warm and active pattern will continue.

Aviation 13z Thursday through Monday
With the band of pre-frontal showers storms moving in this morning,
a few sites may drop down to MVFR for a short time. However,VFR will
prevail for the majority of the day.

As we move into the late evening, a cold front will push off lake
erie and move south. Showers storms are expected to form near or
along the boundary. As far as timing, confidence is highest in the
21-00z for t'storms near the pit area terminals.

Ifr restrictions will be possible with heavier rain storms. With
lower confidence in thunderstorm timing and coverage, have included
only vcts for Thursday afternoon.

Winds will veer from southerly to westerly throughout the period,
gusts are expected to reach 25 knots by mid-morning.

Outlook
Periodic restrictions are possible through the weekend as
disturbances round the upper level ridge.

Pbz watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Wv... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 88 mi44 min WSW 24 G 25 75°F 60°F1013.2 hPa60°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaver County Airport, PA17 mi45 minWSW 12 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F62°F73%1017.6 hPa
New Castle, New Castle Municipal Airport, PA21 mi36 minWSW 810.00 miFair72°F64°F76%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from BVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10S10
G15
SE9SE6SE6----SE5------------------S4S5SW7SW7W6SW8SW12
G18
1 day agoN4N6N5W3NW4CalmCalm--------------------E5E6SE9SE6
G14
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2 days agoW13W11
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--W14
G22
------NW10
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------------------CalmN3N5NE5N4N6NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.