Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prospect, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:02PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Expires:201902201530;;220189 Fzus51 Kcle 200916 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 416 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146>149-201530- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 416 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Snow and freezing rain likely this morning, then changing to rain late this afternoon. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain in the evening, then a chance of rain overnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees, off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
LEZ148


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prospect , PA
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location: 40.9, -80.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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Fxus61 kpbz 201253 aaa
afdpbz
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service pittsburgh pa
753 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A wintry mix of precipitation is expected today, before changing
to all rain by tonight. Dry weather should return Thursday and
Friday under building high pressure.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
750 am update: a quick 1 to 2 inches of snowfall has already
occurred on the nose of strong warm air advection isentropic
ascent. Another 1 to 2 inches of snowfall is possible for areas
north of i70. Based on current observations, the transition to
sleet and freezing rain is along an axis from roughly zanesville
oh towards uniontown pa. This transition 'line' will move
northward over the next several hours with a brief transition to
sleet and freezing rain in the allegheny county area in the
10-11am timeframe and areas north shortly thereafter. Forecast
soundings suggest that near-surface temperatures will warm above
freezing by late morning for pittsburgh, so a transition to
simply rain will be quick.

In the ridges, especially garrett county, expect a changeover
much later. Heavy snow sleet freezing rain will occur in those
locations. Please use extreme caution if traveling in the
mountains today and see the winter storm warning for more
details.

Previous discussion...

low pressure is progged to track from the plains to the upper
midwest today, pulling a warm front N across the upper oh valley
region. This front, along with increasing moisture and
shortwave support in SW flow aloft, will spread precipitation
across the region. Snow is expected this morning at the onset.

Model soundings and critical thicknesses indicate the snow
should change to a period of freezing rain and sleet with warm
advection aloft. As sfc temps also warm, a changeover to all
rain is expected from s-n. Areas well N of pit, and the higher
terrain areas of pa, wv, md, will likely not see this changeover
until tonight as cooling SE upslope flow keeps sfc temperatures
at or below freezing. Will maintain all winter weather
headlines as is.

After the changeover to rain, around 1.5 inches of rain is
expected near and S of I 70 as a low level jet enhances lift.

Lesser amounts are expected to the north. With the saturated
ground, and streams already running high, will maintain the
flood watch. Gusty SE downslope winds are expected especially
across the laurel highlands, though the strongest winds are
progged to remain above the temperature inversion.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Rain should continue this evening before the shortwave support
and deep layer moisture exit. Any lingering freezing rain ne- se
of pit should end this evening as winds veer to the s, ending
the cooling upslope flow. The sfc low is progged to track to
ontario tonight, dragging a cold front across the region. Not
much rain is expected with FROPA itself with upper support
already departed. Dry weather is then expected Thursday and
Friday under building high pressure.

A shortwave in SW flow ahead of central CONUS trough should
return rain chances late Friday night. Temperatures should
average just above seasonal levels.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Rain chances should continue through the weekend as the central
conus trough approaches and crosses the region. Dry weather
should return Monday under a ridge before a fast moving trough
in zonal flow aloft crosses the region Tuesday. Above average
weekend temperatures should return to seasonal levels by Monday.

Aviation 13z Wednesday through Sunday
Ifr conditions prevail for most terminals as moderate to heavy
snow has spread across most terminals. A quick couple inches of
snowfall will be possible for the next few hours. Beginning with
the mgw and zzv terminals, a transition to sleet and freezing
rain will occur shortly before turning to just rain by mid
morning. This transition will happen just a few hours later at
pit, hlg, agc, bvi, and lbe. For those terminals, expect a brief
transition to sleet and freezing rain around 10am and then rain
shortly thereafter. Duj fkl will transition to all rain in the
early afternoon.

Precipitation will gradually clear out overnight, however,
ceilings will remain low.. Likely in the high ifr to low MVFR
range. Southeast wind will also gradually transition to more
southwesterly.

Outlook
Restrictions and gusty wind are expected Thursday with the
passage of a cold front. Restriction potential returns with
weekend low pressure.

Pbz watches warnings advisories
Md... Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for mdz001.

Oh... Winter weather advisory until noon est today for ohz039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.

Flood watch through late tonight for ohz057>059-068-069.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until noon est today for paz020-021-
029-031-073-075.

Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for paz009-016-
023.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for paz074-076.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for paz007-
008-013>015-022.

Flood watch through late tonight for paz031-075-076.

Wv... Winter weather advisory until noon est today for wvz001>004-
012-021-509>513.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for wvz514.

Flood watch through late tonight for wvz003-004-012-021-
509>513.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 79 mi50 min SE 18 G 25 33°F 1019.6 hPa
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 88 mi30 min SE 20 G 27 34°F 33°F1017.4 hPa29°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Castle, New Castle Municipal Airport, PA21 mi64 minESE 72.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F28°F88%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from BVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmNE3Calm----------------------CalmE5
1 day agoW6W5W6W11
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NW8W6NW6NW5NW5--------------------CalmCalm
2 days agoE6E7SE5E4SE7E5--N6N6--------------------------W11
G16
W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.