Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shinnecock Hills, NY
May 21, 2024 2:17 AM EDT (06:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:26 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 6:31 PM Moonset 4:06 AM |
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 205 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning - .
Overnight - Light and variable winds. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Tue - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Vsby less than 1 nm in the morning.
Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 205 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure will be in control through Wednesday. Offshore high pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. This cold front moves across Thursday night and eventually slows down south of long island Friday before dissipating. High pressure returns to the local area thereafter for Friday night into early Saturday. Another low pressure system approaches the area next weekend.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 210616 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 216 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be in control through Wednesday. Offshore high pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. This cold front moves across Thursday night and eventually slows down south of Long Island Friday before dissipating. High pressure returns to the local area thereafter for Friday night into early Saturday. Another low pressure system approaches the area next weekend. A stronger frontal system approaches for early next week
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Forecast remains on track. The fog and low stratus looks to continue overnight, but hasn't made much headway west or north from the previous update.
Deep-layered ridging will be over the region tonight. Mainly clear this evening, then perhaps some cirrus overnight. Given very light winds from the surface up through the bottom of a low level inversion aloft and low dewpoint depressions, thinking there will be areas of fog for coastal areas getting more patchy away from the coast. As always, not very high confidence in the areal coverage and density of the fog, but something to keep an eye on tonight. Dense fog will be a possibility, especially for Long Island and coastal SE CT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
The ridge aloft flattens Tuesday through Wednesday, but surface high pressure will remain in control. After any early stratus/fog, it should be a mostly sunny day for Tuesday, and mostly sunny for Wednesday as well. Showers well ahead of a pre-frontal trough approach late Wednesday, but will go with a dry forecast through the afternoon.
Regarding high temperatures, deterministic NBM continues to run closer to the 10th and 25th percentiles. Blended the deterministic with the 50th percentile for both days based on forecast temperatures at the top of the mixed layer. Might need to lean even closer to the 50th percentile for Wednesday with a better chance of mixing through 850mb away from the coast given wind direction and weaker subsidence from aloft as ridging flattens. Highs will be above normal both days with Wednesday being the warmer day. No records anticipated, but highs on Wednesday around 90 for NE NJ and parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and city. Dewpoints will be low enough to keep heat indices right around the ambient temperature.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The key points pertain to Thursday and Thursday night.
First, another day with well above normal temperatures is anticipated for Thursday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s along the coast and across much of Long Island to upper 70s to upper 80s across parts of the north shore of Long Island, NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and interior Southern CT.
Some interior spots could have heat indices reach around 90.
Second, there is a low change, marginal, threat for severe thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday evening with potential for downbursts and perhaps some hail.
High pressure will eventually give way to an approaching cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. The parent low attached to this front will be weakening as it moves farther north of the Great Lakes. This will lead thereby to a weakening of the cold front.
High temperatures forecast on Thursday are more in the low 70s to mid 80s range, with a lot of locations forecast to be slightly cooler due to increased clouds. However, some locations on Long Island are actually having high temperatures forecast slightly warmer than the previous day due to a more westerly component to the winds.
There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms out ahead and along the cold front for Thursday into Thursday night. The cold front is forecast to move across Thursday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease late Thursday night after the cold frontal passage.
There is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to severe with the cold front with surface CAPE forecast to be up to near 2000 J/kg and forecast 0-6 km AGL bulk shear of 30 to 35 kt. With these factors, severe threat level is more on the marginal side with the coverage expected to be mostly isolated to scattered of the showers and thunderstorms themselves. This combination is forecast to be across some locations north and west of NYC. No hydrologic concerns at this time as showers and thunderstorms will be fast moving, really limiting total rainfall accumulations.
Mainly dry conditions are forecast Friday through Friday night with the eventual return of weak high pressure. High temperatures Friday are forecast still to be above normal but cooler, with a range mainly from the lower 70s to lower 80s for much of the area.
Rain showers return to the forecast for the weekend but probabilities are low initially with more of a chance Saturday night through Sunday night. This will be as another low pressure system makes its approach and gets close enough to the local region to give higher chances of rain. Another frontal system approaches for early next week, keeping the chances for showers in the forecast.
Temperatures more of a decline with more easterly component to the wind weekend into early next week. Highs get more in the 70s for much of the area with more 60s along the coast.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through the TAF period, then begins to move into the western Atlantic late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
IFR to LIFR has developed at the NYC terminals and east, and will remain through the night, and into Tuesday morning. Timing of improvement to VFR is uncertain, and will take longer at KISP and KGON. There is a low chance that KGON remains MVFR through the afternoon.
What remains uncertain is:
1- How far inland does the stratus get? Thinking KEWR and KTEB will be impacted also, but not KSWF.
2- How low do vsbys fall (if at all)? Best chance for fog will be the far eastern terminals (KISP/KGON).
3- Timing of improving conditions to VFR Tuesday morning.
Expect a return to VFR between 14-18Z Tuesday. VFR then remains into later Tuesday night when stratus likely develops once again.
A light S flow prevails through the forecast period, however winds will be light and variable at a few locations overnight.
Winds speeds increase to around 10kt on Tuesday. Sea breeze enhancements are expected once again Tuesday afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertain that the stratus will develop at KEWR and KTEB. Timing of improving conditions at KLGA may be earlier than forecast, and take a little longer at KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late Tuesday night-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. becoming IFR east of the NYC terminals, and possibly at the NYC terminals. Becoming VFR during Wednesday morning. IFR is possible again late Wednesday night, mainly east of the NYC terminals.
Thursday: VFR in the morning, then a chance of afternoon and evening MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.
Friday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Dense fog currently over the eastern ocean zone, the bays and the eastern sound has prompted the issuance of a Marine Dense Fog Advisory, which is in effect until 11 am. Elsewhere, visibilities near 2 NM are forecast overnight.
Otherwise, sub-advisory conditions are expected across all waters through the end of next week. However, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons are likely to see a coastal jet produce gusts up to 20-25 kt, especially on Wednesday, and seas of 3 to 4 ft in the NY Bight along with seas possibly touching 5 ft.
For the marine long term forecast from Wednesday night through Saturday night, conditions are forecast to remain mainly below SCA thresholds on all forecast marine zones. Only exception would be Wednesday night with some SCA level wind gusts on the ocean.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 216 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be in control through Wednesday. Offshore high pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. This cold front moves across Thursday night and eventually slows down south of Long Island Friday before dissipating. High pressure returns to the local area thereafter for Friday night into early Saturday. Another low pressure system approaches the area next weekend. A stronger frontal system approaches for early next week
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Forecast remains on track. The fog and low stratus looks to continue overnight, but hasn't made much headway west or north from the previous update.
Deep-layered ridging will be over the region tonight. Mainly clear this evening, then perhaps some cirrus overnight. Given very light winds from the surface up through the bottom of a low level inversion aloft and low dewpoint depressions, thinking there will be areas of fog for coastal areas getting more patchy away from the coast. As always, not very high confidence in the areal coverage and density of the fog, but something to keep an eye on tonight. Dense fog will be a possibility, especially for Long Island and coastal SE CT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
The ridge aloft flattens Tuesday through Wednesday, but surface high pressure will remain in control. After any early stratus/fog, it should be a mostly sunny day for Tuesday, and mostly sunny for Wednesday as well. Showers well ahead of a pre-frontal trough approach late Wednesday, but will go with a dry forecast through the afternoon.
Regarding high temperatures, deterministic NBM continues to run closer to the 10th and 25th percentiles. Blended the deterministic with the 50th percentile for both days based on forecast temperatures at the top of the mixed layer. Might need to lean even closer to the 50th percentile for Wednesday with a better chance of mixing through 850mb away from the coast given wind direction and weaker subsidence from aloft as ridging flattens. Highs will be above normal both days with Wednesday being the warmer day. No records anticipated, but highs on Wednesday around 90 for NE NJ and parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and city. Dewpoints will be low enough to keep heat indices right around the ambient temperature.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The key points pertain to Thursday and Thursday night.
First, another day with well above normal temperatures is anticipated for Thursday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s along the coast and across much of Long Island to upper 70s to upper 80s across parts of the north shore of Long Island, NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and interior Southern CT.
Some interior spots could have heat indices reach around 90.
Second, there is a low change, marginal, threat for severe thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday evening with potential for downbursts and perhaps some hail.
High pressure will eventually give way to an approaching cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. The parent low attached to this front will be weakening as it moves farther north of the Great Lakes. This will lead thereby to a weakening of the cold front.
High temperatures forecast on Thursday are more in the low 70s to mid 80s range, with a lot of locations forecast to be slightly cooler due to increased clouds. However, some locations on Long Island are actually having high temperatures forecast slightly warmer than the previous day due to a more westerly component to the winds.
There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms out ahead and along the cold front for Thursday into Thursday night. The cold front is forecast to move across Thursday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease late Thursday night after the cold frontal passage.
There is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to severe with the cold front with surface CAPE forecast to be up to near 2000 J/kg and forecast 0-6 km AGL bulk shear of 30 to 35 kt. With these factors, severe threat level is more on the marginal side with the coverage expected to be mostly isolated to scattered of the showers and thunderstorms themselves. This combination is forecast to be across some locations north and west of NYC. No hydrologic concerns at this time as showers and thunderstorms will be fast moving, really limiting total rainfall accumulations.
Mainly dry conditions are forecast Friday through Friday night with the eventual return of weak high pressure. High temperatures Friday are forecast still to be above normal but cooler, with a range mainly from the lower 70s to lower 80s for much of the area.
Rain showers return to the forecast for the weekend but probabilities are low initially with more of a chance Saturday night through Sunday night. This will be as another low pressure system makes its approach and gets close enough to the local region to give higher chances of rain. Another frontal system approaches for early next week, keeping the chances for showers in the forecast.
Temperatures more of a decline with more easterly component to the wind weekend into early next week. Highs get more in the 70s for much of the area with more 60s along the coast.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through the TAF period, then begins to move into the western Atlantic late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
IFR to LIFR has developed at the NYC terminals and east, and will remain through the night, and into Tuesday morning. Timing of improvement to VFR is uncertain, and will take longer at KISP and KGON. There is a low chance that KGON remains MVFR through the afternoon.
What remains uncertain is:
1- How far inland does the stratus get? Thinking KEWR and KTEB will be impacted also, but not KSWF.
2- How low do vsbys fall (if at all)? Best chance for fog will be the far eastern terminals (KISP/KGON).
3- Timing of improving conditions to VFR Tuesday morning.
Expect a return to VFR between 14-18Z Tuesday. VFR then remains into later Tuesday night when stratus likely develops once again.
A light S flow prevails through the forecast period, however winds will be light and variable at a few locations overnight.
Winds speeds increase to around 10kt on Tuesday. Sea breeze enhancements are expected once again Tuesday afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertain that the stratus will develop at KEWR and KTEB. Timing of improving conditions at KLGA may be earlier than forecast, and take a little longer at KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late Tuesday night-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. becoming IFR east of the NYC terminals, and possibly at the NYC terminals. Becoming VFR during Wednesday morning. IFR is possible again late Wednesday night, mainly east of the NYC terminals.
Thursday: VFR in the morning, then a chance of afternoon and evening MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.
Friday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Dense fog currently over the eastern ocean zone, the bays and the eastern sound has prompted the issuance of a Marine Dense Fog Advisory, which is in effect until 11 am. Elsewhere, visibilities near 2 NM are forecast overnight.
Otherwise, sub-advisory conditions are expected across all waters through the end of next week. However, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons are likely to see a coastal jet produce gusts up to 20-25 kt, especially on Wednesday, and seas of 3 to 4 ft in the NY Bight along with seas possibly touching 5 ft.
For the marine long term forecast from Wednesday night through Saturday night, conditions are forecast to remain mainly below SCA thresholds on all forecast marine zones. Only exception would be Wednesday night with some SCA level wind gusts on the ocean.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 28 mi | 59 min | 49°F | 53°F | 29.97 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 35 mi | 59 min | SW 7G | 57°F | 58°F | 30.03 | ||
| NLHC3 | 37 mi | 59 min | 53°F | 65°F | 30.02 | |||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 43 mi | 59 min | SSW 5.1G | 57°F | 29.97 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 11 sm | 10 min | calm | 1/4 sm | -- | Fog | 52°F | 52°F | 100% | 30.03 |
| KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY | 23 sm | 21 min | no data | 1/2 sm | -- | Fog | 52°F | 50°F | 94% | 30.02 |
Tide / Current for Shinnecock Canal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:44 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:49 AM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT 2.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:48 PM EDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:54 PM EDT 2.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:44 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:49 AM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT 2.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:48 PM EDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:54 PM EDT 2.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 2.2 |
| 11 am |
| 2.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:27 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:44 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT 1.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:44 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:53 AM EDT -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:26 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:17 PM EDT 1.43 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:26 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:29 PM EDT -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:27 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:44 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT 1.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:44 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:53 AM EDT -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:26 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:17 PM EDT 1.43 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:26 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:29 PM EDT -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0.9 |
| 2 am |
| -0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.8 |
| 10 am |
| -1.2 |
| 11 am |
| -1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.5 |
Upton, NY,
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