Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Head of the Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:11PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:43 PM EDT (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1056 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers late this morning. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with numerous tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1056 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches today, moving across the waters late this afternoon into this evening. A cold front follows, moving across the forecast waters tonight. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the area waters late Saturday into Sunday then set up south of the region through Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through the area waters Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Head of the Harbor, NY
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location: 40.91, -73.16     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231511
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1111 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A warm front approaches today, moving across the region late in
the day into this evening, and a cold front follows tonight, as
the associated low moves across southeastern canada. The low
moves off the NW england coast Friday as high pressure builds
to the west of the region. High pressure builds over the region
into Saturday afternoon with a weak cold front bringing showers
Saturday night into early Sunday. High pressure returns for
memorial day followed by a warm front Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
Widely scattered shower activity at most with isolated thunder is
forecast through early this afternoon. Probabilities will lower
for a few hours into early this afternoon as the vort moves
east. However, with forcing along the warm frontal boundary will
keep slight chance and chance probabilities into this
afternoon.

A greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms occurs along a
pre-frontal trough mid to late this afternoon which mesoscale
models are showing as a line of convection. This will be in
response to greater daytime heating which will increase the
instability especially across the interior, leading to higher
pops when taken in combination with convergence along the pre-
frontal trough.

Then there will be the potential for additional showers and
thunderstorms into early this evening as a more significant
shortwave and energy in the northern stream move into the ridge.

Mesoscale models are depicting this as a second line and one
that would be associated with the cold front boundary. This
will cause falling height through 06z Friday. There will be
destabilization as the area becomes warm sectored once the warm
front moves east of the area, as a weak thermal ridge sets up
across new jersey and into the lower hudson valley. Surface
based instability will increase, however, CAPE will be limited,
and will be mostly elevated. Weak capping will also be present.

There is some timing differences as to when the best elevated
cape and lift move across the region with the NAM a little
later. Scattered convection is possible and a stronger to
locally severe storm can not be ruled out, especially across the
interior where the best dynamics will be. And the best timing
will be 21z to 03z. The main threat will be damaging winds and
hail. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Have continues to mentioned the strong to locally severe threat
in the hwo.

The precipitation will be quickly ending after 03z as the
shortwave pushes east bringing cold air into the region from
the north and west. The cold front is forecast to move southeast
of long island overnight.

Short term Friday
Height will be rising through Friday and the eastern sub
tropical ridge builds back into the region once the shortwave
moves east. Cold advection and low level winds of 30 to 35 kts
will result in gusty winds across the area. Cold advection
weakens and becomes weak warm advection 18z to 21z Friday as
the ridge builds, and wind gusts will then begin to subside.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
High pressure builds from the great lakes Friday night before
sliding offshore late Saturday. This will lead to dry weather
and mild temperatures through Saturday. Lows Friday night will
be in the 50s.

With the high just to the south on Saturday high temperatures
will rise into the 70s, with cooler temperatures along the
coast. Southerly flow will advect in higher dew points, but in
general will be a nice afternoon with some increasing clouds
later in the day.

A weak cold front will approach Saturday night into Sunday.

This could bring a period of showers into early Sunday before
the front pushes offshore by Sunday afternoon.

Heights then rise behind the shortwave that drives the front
east with a ridge building behind for memorial day. That ridge
then becomes quite anomalous with a significant warming trend
likely into mid-week.

An approaching warm front may bring showers Tuesday followed by
dry weather Wednesday and another system on Thursday.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
A warm frontal passage late today will be followed quickly by a
cold frontal passage tonight.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually dissipate over
the next few hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible with the warm front this afternoon and evening, and
ahead of the cold front tonight. Any of these will be capable
of producing MVFR or lower conditions.VFR conditions are
expected on Friday.

South winds will increase thru the day today, then become
westerly behind the cold front tonight and remain gusty. Nw
winds will gust to around 30 kt on fri.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 15 mi73 min S 9.7 G 9.7 59°F 64°F52°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi61 min SSW 7 G 11 60°F 55°F1020.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi55 min SSW 6 G 7 58°F 61°F1021.3 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi55 min SW 12 G 15 62°F 58°F1021.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi53 min SSW 12 G 14 60°F 57°F3 ft1021.3 hPa (-2.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi43 min S 12 G 16 60°F 59°F1020.3 hPa (-2.8)55°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi55 min 63°F 58°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi1.8 hrsS 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast63°F51°F65%1021.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi1.8 hrsSSW 1110.00 miOvercast61°F48°F63%1022.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY18 mi50 minSSW 14 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F52°F65%1020.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi51 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast63°F48°F58%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12N9
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N7NW8NW11NW8NW6W3SW9SW7SW6SW5SW7SW8S6S7S6S6SW9S6SW7SW13
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N11NW8NW8NW8NW6NW6NW4W4W5W3NW3NW12N11N10N12NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     6.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:34 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:39 PM EDT     5.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.54.966.46.15.13.72.41.20.40.31.12.33.74.95.75.85.34.23.121.211.5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EDT     7.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:34 PM EDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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45.56.676.65.43.92.41.10.40.41.32.74.25.46.36.35.64.53.22.11.21.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.